Will Weld break 40%?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Spitzer is already at 60%. The best Weld could hope for is like a 60-39 Spitzer win.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Spitzer is already at 60%. The best Weld could hope for is like a 60-39 Spitzer win.

Yea because poll numbers can't change...

I think I'm being generous assuming that all of the undeciededs break for Weld, except that Conservative party nominee will get something too. Let's face it, a social moderate who had some beers with Kerry when he was running against him is not getting the Conservative party nomination.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The problem with your analysis, BRTD, is that the House has an incumbency rate upwards of 90%.

Governorships and Senate seats change much, much more often than House seats, which almost never flip unless  the incumbent is very unpopular or the challenger gets an astounding amount of media coverage (hard to get in a House race).

Santorum is a Senator. Some years a lot of those get tossed, like 1980, 1986, 1994, 2000.