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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  Will Weld break 40%?
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Question: Will Weld break 40%?
#1
yes
 
#2
no
 
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Total Voters: 29

Author Topic: Will Weld break 40%?  (Read 5213 times)
giving birth to thunder
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« on: August 20, 2005, 01:00:25 pm »

I'm voting no but I won't be suprised if he does. Still I would be quite suprised if he gets above 43%.
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phk
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« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2005, 01:01:20 pm »

No
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YRABNNRM
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« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2005, 01:06:12 pm »

Like I said in the other thread, once he gets his name and record out there he can.
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giving birth to thunder
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« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2005, 01:19:58 pm »

The more interesting question might be if he wins Nassau and Suffolk counties and Staten Island.

I'd say no for Nassau but don't know about the other two.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2005, 01:27:18 pm »

Could be wrong but I'd expect someone like Weld to have more appeal in a place like Suffolk than a place like Staten Island.
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Ben.
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« Reply #5 on: August 20, 2005, 01:34:26 pm »

Do NOT underestimate Weld he is an eminently credible candidate for the GOP in New York and is a strong campaigner with a strong record to fight from.

His entry into the race is by and large the worst thing that could have happened, from a Dem point of view, bar Rudy Guiliani entering it.

All that said Spitzer is way ahead in the polls and fundraising and has his party lock-stock behind him, Weld however is way behind though once he gets his name recognition up that will change. Whatís more the GOP in New York is suffering and after more than a decade of Patakiís brand of Rockefeller Republicanism the stateís itching for a change and looks to be opting for Spitzerís brand of tough love Ė populism.

In the end I think that Weld will break 40%, but Spitzer will be in the region of 55-60%, but an upset could happen, though its unlikely, thankfully.         
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Smash255
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« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2005, 10:58:54 pm »

The more interesting question might be if he wins Nassau and Suffolk counties and Staten Island.

I'd say no for Nassau but don't know about the other two.

Nassau county no, Staten Island & Suffolk are possiblle athough I would say still would lean towards Spitzer (will be fairly close).  A Weld type candidate could do decent here, Golisano would rip into his margins upstate (due to social conservatives). 

Either way Spitzer is unbeatable so it doesn't really matter at this point.  However a problem the Republicans run into is ithe differences within their own ranks in different parts of the state.  A socially moderate to liberal Republican can do decently in Staten Island, Westchester & Long Island, but would have some issues from upstate conservatives if someone like Golisano ran on a 3rd party.  They run a more mainline conservative to appease the upstate Republicans than the downstate Republicans (Long Island, Westchester & Staten Island)  flee towards the Dems
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Smash255
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« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2005, 11:00:12 pm »

Could be wrong but I'd expect someone like Weld to have more appeal in a place like Suffolk than a place like Staten Island.

Staten Island has traditonally been more Republican than Suffolk
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Smash255
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« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2005, 11:01:35 pm »

No,  Spitzer is just too strong, also Weld could be hurt by Upstate Conservative Republicans who vote 3rd party, though I think Spitzer will probably top 60% anyway
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Smash255
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« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2005, 01:44:57 am »


What kind of informed politico can truthfully say that they believe a canidate is "unbeatable". There have been so many surprise upsets and near misses in recent memory.

At this point, I believe Spitzer will win, and by a healthy margin. But is he "unbeatable"? No one is..

Barring some major scandal he is.  When someone as well known as Spitzer is has disapprovals in the teens & generally has an approval- dispproval gap of 50% he is virtually impossible to beat, the only one with a chane is Rudy & he isn't running.
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© tweed
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« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2005, 08:36:53 am »

Probably.  The problem though for him would be whether the Conservative Party backs him.  He's extremely liberal on social issues and it's a big leap for some of the conservative party leaders to support him.  If they do, he probably loses by about 10-15%.  Without them, he doesn't break 40%.

I'd consider supporting Weld, I like him personally, he's probably closer to me politically than Spitzer, and I have no problem voting Republicans into state offices if I like them.  Federal elections are a different story.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2005, 09:32:07 am »

Um...you don't think Weld will actually be the nominee, do you?
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2005, 10:18:27 am »

Um...you don't think Weld will actually be the nominee, do you?

who else does the NYGOP have?  Golisano I guess, but I don't think Golisano would get the nomination.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2005, 10:40:34 am »


What kind of informed politico can truthfully say that they believe a canidate is "unbeatable". There have been so many surprise upsets and near misses in recent memory.

At this point, I believe Spitzer will win, and by a healthy margin. But is he "unbeatable"? No one is..

Barring some major scandal he is.† When someone as well known as Spitzer is has disapprovals in the teens & generally has an approval- dispproval gap of 50% he is virtually impossible to beat, the only one with a chane is Rudy & he isn't running.

This reminds me of a year back when people told me "Toomey could never beat Specter.  Well, He might not of, but it certainly would not have taken much.
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True Democrat
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« Reply #14 on: August 21, 2005, 11:54:57 am »

If I were living in New York and could vote, I would be split.  I don't really know Spitzer's views that much.  All I know is that he chopped a lot of heads off.  Could some one tell me what kind of Democrat he is?
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nick
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« Reply #15 on: August 21, 2005, 11:59:37 am »

The odds are stacked against him.  He seems like a replica of Pataki.  NY is tired of Pataki.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #16 on: August 21, 2005, 12:34:20 pm »

Spitzer is an ass, but in NY that's hardly a problem. He looks like a mix of Rendell and Carville, which needless to say means very sketchy.
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dazzleman
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« Reply #17 on: August 21, 2005, 01:06:30 pm »

I don't think Weld or any Republican I've heard of has much of a chance of winning the governorship of New York.

Pataki is so close to a Democrat anyway; why not have the real thing?

But I think it's supremely foolish to start judging victory margins this far out, before the campaign has even started.  Only a rookie would make that mistake, either in the potential Weld-Spitzer race, or in the Pirro-Ceausescu (oops, I meant Clinton) race.
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giving birth to thunder
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« Reply #18 on: August 21, 2005, 01:58:14 pm »


What kind of informed politico can truthfully say that they believe a canidate is "unbeatable". There have been so many surprise upsets and near misses in recent memory.

At this point, I believe Spitzer will win, and by a healthy margin. But is he "unbeatable"? No one is..

Barring some major scandal he is.  When someone as well known as Spitzer is has disapprovals in the teens & generally has an approval- dispproval gap of 50% he is virtually impossible to beat, the only one with a chane is Rudy & he isn't running.

This reminds me of a year back when people told me "Toomey could never beat Specter.  Well, He might not of, but it certainly would not have taken much.

and this reminds me of the Republicans who thought Obama was beatable
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #19 on: August 21, 2005, 02:07:10 pm »

i wont say its definite, but i will say that hes got the chance.
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giving birth to thunder
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« Reply #20 on: August 21, 2005, 02:09:40 pm »

and this reminds me of the Republicans who thought Obama was beatable

He was. Just not with the trash that we put against him.

Obama was a shoo-in from day one. Pre-scandal breaking, he led his original opponent by 10 points.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #21 on: August 21, 2005, 02:13:08 pm »

and this reminds me of the Republicans who thought Obama was beatable

He was. Just not with the trash that we put against him.

Obama was a shoo-in from day one. Pre-scandal breaking, he led his original opponent by 10 points.

and we all know a 10 point gap never closes. 
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #22 on: August 21, 2005, 02:16:22 pm »

and we all know a 10 point gap never closes.†

Presumably Senator Bowles told you that? Smiley
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #23 on: August 21, 2005, 02:19:10 pm »

and we all know a 10 point gap never closes. 

Presumably Senator Bowles told you that? Smiley

that's right.  Smiley

by the way, bowles is set to become president of the 16 campus unc system.  a pretty prestigious job.  perhaps his political career isnt over yet after all.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #24 on: August 21, 2005, 02:23:22 pm »

and this reminds me of the Republicans who thought Obama was beatable

He was. Just not with the trash that we put against him.

Bingo
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