Austrian Election Prediction Contest 2017

[Tender Branson]

The German election has one, so the Austrian shall get one too ...

On the ballot Austria-wide: SPÖ, ÖVP, FPÖ, Greens, NEOS, PILZ, Whites, FLÖ, G!LT, KPÖ+

On the ballot in some states only: CPÖ, M, EU-Exit, SLP, ODP, NBZ (their combined result will likely be less than 0.3% Austria-wide, as a starting point for your prediction below).

1.) Predict the percentages of all parties, rounded to one decimal point.

2.) Guess the name of the 7th-biggest party and its percentage.

3.) Predict voter turnout, rounded to one decimal point.

4.) Name the leading party in each state.

5.) Name the best and worst state for each of the six big parties.

6.) Will the Greens drop below the 4% threshold ?

7.) Will the FPÖ drop below 20% ?

8.) Will PILZ make it into parliament ?

9.) Predict the next coalition.

10.) Predict what Kern/Kurz/Strache will do after the election.

As a starting point, here are the federal and state results for the 2013 election:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_legislative_election,_2013#Results

And as a clickable map:

http://wahl13.bmi.gv.at

Turnout was 74.9% in 2013 and 78.8% in 2008.

You can edit your prediction as often as you want, but I'm gonna close this thread on Election Day (October 15).

[Tender Branson]

Current polling (plus a margin of error of +/- 4% for each party):

32-34% ÖVP
22-27% SPÖ
22-25% FPÖ
    4-7% Greens
    4-6% NEOS
    4-6% Pilz
    0-2% G!LT
    1-4% Others

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

You guys are so lucky to have a 4% threshold, unlike us Germans with an undemocratic 5% hurdle, which regularly uses up millions of innocent ballots. In 2013, nearly 7,000,000 votes or a record 15.8% (!!!) of the vote were not counted because the threshold is too damn high.

[Former President tack50]

1.) Predict the percentages of all parties, rounded to one decimal point.

ÖVP: 33.0%
SPÖ: 24.0%
FPÖ: 23.0%
Greens: 5.5%
NEOS: 5.5%
Pilz: 5.5%

2.) Guess the name of the 7th-biggest party and its percentage.

KPÖ: 1.5%

3.) Predict voter turnout, rounded to one decimal point.

72.1%

4.) Name the leading party in each state.

SPÖ: Vienna, Carinthia
ÖVP: Everything else

5.) Name the best and worst state for each of the six big parties.

ÖVP: Tyrol-Carinthia
SPÖ: Burgenland-Voralberg
FPÖ: Styria-Burgenland
Greens: Vienna-Lower Austria
Pilz: Vienna-Burgenland
NEOS: Voralberg-Burgenland

6.) Will the Greens drop below the 4% threshold ?

No

7.) Will the FPÖ drop below 20% ?

No

8.) Will PILZ make it into parliament ?

Yes

9.) Predict the next coalition.

ÖVP+FPÖ

10.) Predict what Kern/Kurz/Strache will do after the election.

Kern resigns as party leader, the other 2 become PM and a cabinet minister (and deputy PM) respectively

[JA]

29,6% | ÖVP
25,3% | FPÖ
25,1% | SPÖ
05,7% | NEOS
05,1% | PILZ
04,9% | Greens
02,3% | G!LT
01,1% | KPÖ
00,9% | Others

The 7th largest party will likely be G!LT (My Vote Counts!) with 2,3% of the popular vote.

76,3% voter turnout.

SPÖ | Burgenland
SPÖ | Carinthia
ÖVP | Lower Austria
ÖVP | Upper Austria
ÖVP | Salzburg
FPÖ | Styria
ÖVP | Tyrol
ÖVP | Vorarlberg
SPÖ | Vienna

ÖVP | Lower Austria (best), Vienna (worst)
FPÖ | Styria (best), Burgenland (worst)
SPÖ | Burgenland (best), Vorarlberg (worst)
NEOS | Vorarlberg (best), Burgenland (worst)
PILZ | Vorarlberg (best), Burgenland (worst)
Greens | Vienna (best), Burgenland (worst)

No, the Greens will stay just above 4%.

FPÖ will increase to around 25%.

Yes, PILZ will make it into parliament.

The next coalition will consist of ÖVP and FPÖ.

[TheSaint250]

ÖVP: 32.5%
FPÖ: 26.0%
SPÖ: 24.1%
NEOS: 5.2%
Greens: 4.9%
Pilz: 4.7%

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

1.) Predict the percentages of all parties, rounded to one decimal point.

ÖVP: 30.3%
FPÖ: 27.7%
SPÖ: 24.9%
NEOS: 4.5%
PILZ: 4.0%
GRÜNE: 3.9%

2.) Guess the name of the 7th-biggest party and its percentage.

GILT: 2.2%

3.) Predict voter turnout, rounded to one decimal point.

76.5%

4.) Name the leading party in each state.

ÖVP: Upper Austria, Tyrol, Salzburg
FPÖ: Burgenland, Lower Austria, Styria, Vorarlberg
SPÖ: Vienna, Carinthia

5.) Name the best and worst state for each of the six big parties.

ÖVP: Tyrol | Carinthia
FPÖ: Styria | Carinthia
SPÖ: Carinthia | Vorarlberg
NEOS: Vorarlberg | Burgenland
PILZ: Styria | Carinthia
GRÜNE: Vienna | Burgenland

6.) Will the Greens drop below the 4% threshold ?

Yes.

7.) Will the FPÖ drop below 20% ?

No.

8.) Will PILZ make it into parliament ?

Yes.

9.) Predict the next coalition.

ÖVP-SPÖ

10.) Predict what Kern/Kurz/Strache will do after the election.

Christian Kern will stay in the Nationalrat.
Sebastian Kurz will become Chancellor.
HC Strache will remain the opposition leader.

[Tender Branson]

The "super-cool" amongst you can also predict the Olympic Winter Games 2026 ballot initiative in Tyrol.

[parochial boy]

The "super-cool" amongst you can also predict the Olympic Winter Games 2026 ballot initiative in Tyrol.

Doesn't matter, they're going to Sion

[Tender Branson]

The "super-cool" amongst you can also predict the Olympic Winter Games 2026 ballot initiative in Tyrol.

Doesn't matter, they're going to Sion

Maybe ...

A pro argument for Innsbruck 2026 would be the 50th anniversary of the 1976 Innsbruck Games.

On the other hand, Innsbruck has already hosted them twice - so they might give it to another city.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Why is Carinthia such an SPÖ stronghold?

[Tender Branson]

Why is Carinthia such an SPÖ stronghold?

Carinthia has historically been a strong working class state with a lot of manufacturing and not as much agriculture/services industry as in other states. Which also explains the strength of the FPÖ/BZÖ there later on.

And a couple popular SPÖ governors.

[jaichind]

My best guess right now

ÖVP:     31.8%
FPÖ:     27.0%
SPÖ:     24.2%
Pilz:       5.6%
Greens:  5.2%
NEOS:    4.5%

[Tender Branson]

My FINAL prediction (I'm historically not really good at predicting our own elections ... ):

29.1% ÖVP (+5.1) - 55 seats [+8]
28.2% FPÖ (+7.7) - 53 seats [+13]
22.3% SPÖ (-4.5) - 42 seats [-10]
  6.5% Pilz (+6.5) - 12 seats [+12]
  5.7% NEOS (+0.7) - 11 seats [+2]
  5.4% Greens (-7.0) - 10 seats [-14]
  1.5% KPÖ+ (+0.5)
  0.5% G!LT (+0.5)
  0.4% FLÖ (+0.4)
  0.2% Whites (+0.2)
  0.2% Others (-10.1) - 0 seats [-11, because of the TS)

2.) Guess the name of the 7th-biggest party and its percentage.

KPÖ+: 1.5%

3.) Predict voter turnout, rounded to one decimal point.

79.4% (+4.5)

4.) Name the leading party in each state.

SPÖ: Vienna, Burgenland (but only by a hair)
ÖVP: Lower Austria, Upper Austria, Salzburg, Tyrol, Vorarlberg
FPÖ: Styria, Carinthia

5.) Name the best and worst state for each of the six big parties.

SPÖ: Burgenland, Voralberg
ÖVP: Tyrol, Carinthia
FPÖ: Styria, Burgenland
Greens: Vorarlberg, Burgenland
NEOS: Vienna, Burgenland
Pilz: Vienna, Burgenland

6.) Will the Greens drop below the 4% threshold ?

No

7.) Will the FPÖ drop below 20% ?

No

8.) Will PILZ make it into parliament ?

Yes

9.) Predict the next coalition.

ÖVP+FPÖ

10.) Predict what Kern/Kurz/Strache will do after the election.

Kern: will resign and do something else, like becoming manager of a company again
Kurz: will become Chancellor
Strache: will become Vice-Chancellor, even though Van der Bellen has concerns

BONUS:

Tyrol Winter Olympics 2026 Referendum: 54.2% Yes, 45.8% No

[SamTilden2020]

I don't know too much about Austria's politics, but here is my guess:

OVP+FPO: 58% (Coalition forms majority, Kurz becomes chancellor)
SPO: 25% (Kern loses chancellorship)
Pilz+NEOS+Greens: 17%

[DavidB.]

1.) Predict the percentages of all parties, rounded to one decimal point.

ÖVP: 32.0%
FPÖ: 26.5%
SPÖ: 24.0%
GRÜNE: 5.0%
NEOS: 4.5%
PILZ: 4.0%

2.) Guess the name of the 7th-biggest party and its percentage.

KPÖ 1.1%

3.) Predict voter turnout, rounded to one decimal point.

82.0%

4.) Name the leading party in each state.

ÖVP: Upper Austria, Lower Austria, Salzburg, Tyrol, Vorarlberg
FPÖ: Carinthia, Styria
SPÖ: Vienna, Burgenland

5.) Name the best and worst state for each of the six big parties.

ÖVP: Tyrol | Vienna
FPÖ: Carinthia | Tyrol
SPÖ: Burgenland | Vorarlberg
GRÜNE: Vorarlberg | Burgenland
NEOS: Vorarlberg | Burgenland
PILZ: Styria | Vorarlberg

6.) Will the Greens drop below the 4% threshold ?

No.

7.) Will the FPÖ drop below 20% ?

No.

8.) Will PILZ make it into parliament ?

Yes.

9.) Predict the next coalition.

ÖVP-FPÖ.

10.) Predict what Kern/Kurz/Strache will do after the election.

Kurz: Chancellor
Kern: Opposition leader
Strache: Will be a minister in the newly formed government

[Tender Branson]

David, you say that you expect PILZ to make it into parliament with 4.0% ... ?

4.01% ?



Also, you expect turnout to be 82%, which of course would be nice, but I assume it will be similar to Bavaria's (78%), or slightly higher. 80%+ would be cool though.

[mvd10]

32.0% ÖVP
28.2% FPÖ
22.5% SPÖ
  5.3% NEOS
  4.9% Pilz
  4.8% Greens
  1.2% KPÖ+
  0.4% G!LT
  0.3% FLÖ
  0.2% Whites
  0.2% Others

2.) Guess the name of the 7th-biggest party and its percentage.

KPÖ+: 1.2%

3.) Predict voter turnout, rounded to one decimal point.

80.6%

4.) Name the leading party in each state.

SPÖ: Vienna
ÖVP: Lower Austria, Upper Austria, Salzburg, Tyrol, Vorarlberg, Burgenland
FPÖ: Styria, Carinthia

5.) Name the best and worst state for each of the six big parties.

SPÖ: Burgenland, Voralberg
ÖVP: Tyrol, Vienna
FPÖ: Styria, Burgenland
Greens: Vienna, Burgenland
NEOS: Vorarlberg, Burgenland
Pilz: Vienna, Burgenland

6.) Will the Greens drop below the 4% threshold ?

No

7.) Will the FPÖ drop below 20% ?

No

8.) Will PILZ make it into parliament ?

Yes

9.) Predict the next coalition.

ÖVP+FPÖ

10.) Predict what Kern/Kurz/Strache will do after the election.

Kern: Resigns
Kurz: Chancellor
Strache: Vice-Chancellor (and Interior Minister I suppose)

BONUS:

Tyrol Winter Olympics 2026 Referendum: 52.2% Yes, 47.8% No

[Kingpoleon]

1.
ÖVP: 33.1%
FPÖ: 24.5%
SPÖ: 22.2%
NEOS: 6.1%
Green: 5.6%
PILZ: 5.5%
Others: 3.0%

2. KPÖ+: 1.6%

3. 76.2%

6. No

7. No

8. Yes

9. ÖVP+FPÖ

10. Kern resigns, Kurz becomes chancellor, Strache takes a Cabinet position and becomes Vice Chancellor.

[palandio]

30.0% ÖVP
27.7% FPÖ
23.5% SPÖ
  5.8% NEOS
  6.2% Pilz
  4.5% Greens
  1.3% FLÖ
  1.0% KPÖ+
  0.5% G!LT
  0.2% Whites
  0.3% Others

2.) Guess the name of the 7th-biggest party and its percentage.

  1.3% FLÖ

3.) Predict voter turnout, rounded to one decimal point.

77.5%

4.) Name the leading party in each state.

SPÖ: Burgenland
ÖVP: Lower Austria, Upper Austria, Salzburg, Tyrol, Vorarlberg
FPÖ: Styria, Carinthia, Vienna

5.) Name the best and worst state for each of the six big parties.

SPÖ: Burgenland, Voralberg
ÖVP: Tyrol, Vienna
FPÖ: Styria, Burgenland
Greens: Vorarlberg, Burgenland
NEOS: Vienna, Burgenland
Pilz: Vienna, Burgenland

6.) Will the Greens drop below the 4% threshold ?

No

7.) Will the FPÖ drop below 20% ?

No

8.) Will PILZ make it into parliament ?

Yes

9.) Predict the next coalition.

FPÖ+SPÖ

10.) Predict what Kern/Kurz/Strache will do after the election.

Kern: will resign and do something else, like becoming manager of a company again
Kurz: will remain leader of the ÖVP
Strache: will become chancellor, even though Van der Bellen has concerns

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Concerning the referendum:

As I consider Austrians much more reasonable than the Bavarians, I predict 58.3% will say yes.

[Tender Branson]

Any last-minute predictions ?

I'll close the thread temporarily in about 3.5 hours before polls close.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

What does yes mean in the referendum? That the Olympic games will take place in Austria or not?

[Tender Branson]

What does yes mean in the referendum? That the Olympic games will take place in Austria or not?

No, that the state of Tyrol will submit to the IOC an ecologically and economically sustainable proposal to host the 2026 Winter Olympics.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

What does yes mean in the referendum? That the Olympic games will take place in Austria or not?

No, that the state of Tyrol will submit to the IOC an ecologically and economically sustainable proposal to host the 2026 Winter Olympics.

I expressed myself wrongly. I meant, does yes mean that the Olympic games should take place in Tyrol. Obviously yes.
Can all Austrian cast a ballot for the referendum, or only the Tyroleans?

When do the polls close?