So yea we all of have seen the wealthy towns that swung to Hillary but.....

[Keep cool-idge]

How about we discuss the wealthy towns that swung to trump.

[NOVA Green]

This is the challenge, and a basically the question that RI from Washington State posed back in Feb 17 and AN63093 today on another thread....

We have two threads that various individuals, including myself have contributed to regarding "wealthy" communities votes in '16....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.25

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=267040.0


Although definition of wealth is relative, so what one might consider to be just basically standard "Middle Class by Household Income" in one communities, might actually be considered upper Middle-Class in another.

So far in all of the research there are only a handful that I've seen thus far....

Hailey, Idaho  (Blaine County)

A.) Hailey--- Pop 8.0k--- MHI $75.2k

2012: (67 D- 30 R)        +37 D

2016: (62 D- 29 R)        +33 D    (+4% R Swing)

Although most of this looks like voters defecting from Obama '08 to 3rd Party candidates,

B.) So Park City Montana (Stillwater County)---- MHI $58.8k/Yr- Pop 1.0k

2012: (30 D- 69 R)       +39 R
2016: (19 D- 74 R)       +55 R    (+16% R Swing)....

*** There was some weirdness with the precinct changes, and also MHI of $58.8k is isn't going to be that relatively wealthy even in Montana, but it was a frustrating state to work with on precinct data, as I detailed in a post some months back on one of the two threads above.

C.) Sleepy Hollow, Wyoming (Campbell County)

Sleepy Hollow--- MHI $ 102.4k--- Pop 1.1k


2012: (12.8% D- 86.2% R)       +73% R
2016: (6.3% D-   86.2% R)       +80% R      (+7% R Swing)

D. Waverly, Nebraska - (Lancaster County) MHI $77.7k-  Pop 3.4k

2012: (36 D- 62 R)        +26 R
2016: (25 D- 68 R)        +43 R     (+17% Rep Swing)

E. Yankee Hill, Nebraska- (Lancaster County)- MHI $93.6- Pop 730

2012: (37 D- 62 R)        +25 R
2016: (32 D- 61 R)        +29 R   (+4% R Swing)

* Also looks like a Obama '12 > 3rd Party defection scene going on

F. Richmond, Rhode Island- (Washington County)- MHI $94.0k--- Pop 7.7k

2012: (54 D- 42 R)   +12 D;  2016: (42 D- 50_R)  +8 R    +20% R Swing

G. Exeter, Rhode Island (Washington County)--- MHI $81.6k--- Pop 6.7k

2012: (52 D- 42 R)   +10 D; 2016: (44 D- 51 R)      + 7 R    +17% R Swing

H.) Census Tract # 031300 , Oklahoma (Canadian County)-- MHI $100.7k--- Pop 4.6k

(Precincts 226 & 308)

2012: (15.1 D- 84.9 R)---      +69.8% R
2016: (11.7 D- 82.7 R)---      +71.0% R        (+1.2% R Swing)


So far we have about 8 communities out of some 250-300 ? ( I meant to post an updated list awhile back of collective research to date) covered in both of the previous threads where various Atlas members contributed and crowd-sourced numbers generated, including probably about 150 labor hours on my part.

There does appear to be a similarity in the small sample size of swings towards Trump in "wealthier communities", namely that almost all of them are located in the Great Plains / Northern Mountain West region, with the exception of the two in Rhode Island.

I confess, I had to take a break from trawling through precinct level data on wealthier communities, because I was able to devote a bit more time to the Project during a few periods when I was recently out of work, and although I am sure there are more such communities out there, it's going to take a bit of time for individuals to "look for the needle in the strawpile".

My suggestion would be starting to look at some of the wealthiest places within wealthier counties for starters, and I've already hit a considerable number of states on "how did the wealthiest place within the wealthiest County" vote thread.

So, maybe this thread should be more specifically for posters to contribute their research on "wealthier communities" that swung towards Trump in '16, and cross-post or post other relevant research data on the two other threads out there on "wealthy places that swung towards HRC" and "how did the wealthiest counties vote by State"?

[AN63093]

As I posted in the other thread (wealthy areas swinging towards Clinton), there are areas out there, but it's going to take a little more research and poking around.  In other words, it will take a bit more personal knowledge of the areas to know what to look for, as opposed to just picking out rich counties, towns, etc., at random in any given state.

As I mentioned in the other thread, here are a couple ideas right off the bat:

-Putnam County NY (MHI $96k, 7th highest in US), swung and trend R
-Calvert County MD (MHI $87k, 19th highest in US), swung and trend R
-St Mary's County MD (MHI $86k, 21st highest in US), swung and trend R
-Suffolk County NY (MHI $86k, 22nd highest in US), swung and trend R
-Stafford County VA (MHI $98k, 6th highest in US), swung R, trended D
-Nassau County NY (MHI $93k, 13th highest in US), swung R, trended D


If we dig into those counties, we may find a possible "answer" as to the highest income area that trended towards Trump.  I'm very familiar with all these counties (from NYC originally, have lived in DC, currently live in VA).

The NY counties are Long Island, with the exception of Putnam, which is a far northern exurb (north of even Westchester).  Putnam is about the farthest north I've ever heard of people actually commuting into the city (the Metro North commuter train does connect it to Manhattan, but you're looking at a 90 min+ train ride).

The MD and VA counties are all DC suburbs.  Calvert and St Marys are Southeast of DC along the Chesapeake.  People will commute into DC from these areas by car (no train connection).  Calvert is more doable, St Marys is a brutal long drive (but I knew people that did it). Stafford VA is south of DC on I-95 along the Potomac, between the Quantico Marine Corps Base and Fredericksburg.  People will also commute to DC from here, either car or by commuter rail (Virginia Railway Express).  Fredericksburg is about as far south as you'll find people regularly commuting into DC.


These are all affluent suburbs (and exurbs)... however, I should point out that they have quite a different... character... than some of these other wealthy communities.  It's partly because they're "new money," sure, but that's not just it.. because, after all, you can find plenty of new money in counties like Westchester NY (Scarsdale is a good example of this), and Westchester had a strong D trend.  The right words escape me at the moment... but people familiar with these areas will know what I'm talking about.  Long Island NY, in a lot of ways, "feels" more like Calvert County MD, than it does Westchester or Fairfield CT.

Anyway, NOVA G- by way of reply to your post in the other thread, this is both an invitation for others to contribute, and also stating an intent to do a little digging into this myself (partly out of sheer curiosity and I'm a huge geek when it comes to demographics).  By the way, regarding those RI areas, what you posted in the other thread (quoting the person commenting on RI communities) has some truth to it.  I'm pretty familiar with RI too, since I spent a ton of my summers there, and those areas of RI.. while the MHI has gone up in the past 15 years or so, they aren't what you'd consider "traditionally rich" areas.  In all honesty, most of RI is actually quite a working class state; the history and demographics of the state are quite a bit different than say, southwestern CT.  Sure, a bunch of robber barons and what not built large vacation houses in Newport RI in the late 1800s, but the people that actually lived there year-round were a completely different demographic.

[AN63093]

I have found a few initial candidates in Stafford County, VA.  Will comb through a couple of these other counties later.

Brooke, VA, $124,185 MHI

2016, 60.7-33.5, R+27.2
2012, 59.9-38.4, R+21.5
Swing R +5.7

Roseville, VA, $129,375 MHI

2016, 50.6-41.8, R+8.8
2012, 52.8-45.7, R+7.1
Swing R +1.7


Both are unincorporated exurbs of DC.  Brooke is connected to DC by VRE commuter rail, but it's pretty far out there.  Roseville is basically on the other side of I-95 from Brooke.  Although you can commute in by rail from there, it feels more rural than urban or even suburban.  Also land out there is still cheap.  You can buy up a giant lot for less than $500k, which is unheard of closer to DC.

[AN63093]

Decided to go ahead and do one more, from Putnam County, NY.


Carmel, NY, $102,457 MHI

2016, 61.8-33.4, R+28.4
2012, 60.4-38, R+22.4
Swing R +6


As I mentioned above, this area is a far northern exurb of NYC.  It is connected to Manhattan by Metro North commuter train, but you're looking at a 90 min commute (minimum, that's just to Grand Central, so you'd have to add time if you don't work in Midtown).

The area is rural in character and heavily wooded.  Similar to the VA areas I posted, you can easily find homes under $500k here with the works (garage, huge yard, etc.).  This would be absolutely impossible closer to the city.

[Keep cool-idge]

As I posted in the other thread (wealthy areas swinging towards Clinton), there are areas out there, but it's going to take a little more research and poking around.  In other words, it will take a bit more personal knowledge of the areas to know what to look for, as opposed to just picking out rich counties, towns, etc., at random in any given state.

As I mentioned in the other thread, here are a couple ideas right off the bat:

-Putnam County NY (MHI $96k, 7th highest in US), swung and trend R
-Calvert County MD (MHI $87k, 19th highest in US), swung and trend R
-St Mary's County MD (MHI $86k, 21st highest in US), swung and trend R
-Suffolk County NY (MHI $86k, 22nd highest in US), swung and trend R
-Stafford County VA (MHI $98k, 6th highest in US), swung R, trended D
-Nassau County NY (MHI $93k, 13th highest in US), swung R, trended D


If we dig into those counties, we may find a possible "answer" as to the highest income area that trended towards Trump.  I'm very familiar with all these counties (from NYC originally, have lived in DC, currently live in VA).

The NY counties are Long Island, with the exception of Putnam, which is a far northern exurb (north of even Westchester).  Putnam is about the farthest north I've ever heard of people actually commuting into the city (the Metro North commuter train does connect it to Manhattan, but you're looking at a 90 min+ train ride).

The MD and VA counties are all DC suburbs.  Calvert and St Marys are Southeast of DC along the Chesapeake.  People will commute into DC from these areas by car (no train connection).  Calvert is more doable, St Marys is a brutal long drive (but I knew people that did it). Stafford VA is south of DC on I-95 along the Potomac, between the Quantico Marine Corps Base and Fredericksburg.  People will also commute to DC from here, either car or by commuter rail (Virginia Railway Express).  Fredericksburg is about as far south as you'll find people regularly commuting into DC.


These are all affluent suburbs (and exurbs)... however, I should point out that they have quite a different... character... than some of these other wealthy communities.  It's partly because they're "new money," sure, but that's not just it.. because, after all, you can find plenty of new money in counties like Westchester NY (Scarsdale is a good example of this), and Westchester had a strong D trend.  The right words escape me at the moment... but people familiar with these areas will know what I'm talking about.  Long Island NY, in a lot of ways, "feels" more like Calvert County MD, than it does Westchester or Fairfield CT.

Anyway, NOVA G- by way of reply to your post in the other thread, this is both an invitation for others to contribute, and also stating an intent to do a little digging into this myself (partly out of sheer curiosity and I'm a huge geek when it comes to demographics).  By the way, regarding those RI areas, what you posted in the other thread (quoting the person commenting on RI communities) has some truth to it.  I'm pretty familiar with RI too, since I spent a ton of my summers there, and those areas of RI.. while the MHI has gone up in the past 15 years or so, they aren't what you'd consider "traditionally rich" areas.  In all honesty, most of RI is actually quite a working class state; the history and demographics of the state are quite a bit different than say, southwestern CT.  Sure, a bunch of robber barons and what not built large vacation houses in Newport RI in the late 1800s, but the people that actually lived there year-round were a completely different demographic.

So the LongIsland thing I just find so odd like I have been all over the upper northeast and every area I look up trended to Hillary the only place I have ever seen that is wealthy that trended to trump was longisland it's just odd since longisland has been democrat since the nineties and the fact that trump won it is so odd.
Also does anyone are oysterbay town results because on the DDHQ map it's hard to tell since every precinct either had a massive swing to Hillary or Trump

[AN63093]

So the LongIsland thing I just find so odd like I have been all over the upper northeast and every area I look up trended to Hillary the only place I have ever seen that is wealthy that trended to trump was longisland it's just odd since longisland has been democrat since the nineties and the fact that trump won it is so odd.
Also does anyone are oysterbay town results because on the DDHQ map it's hard to tell since every precinct either had a massive swing to Hillary or Trump

Well, keep in mind it's not just LI.  Also swinging R was Putnam Cty NY, and several counties in MD and VA near DC (I've posted some town details above).

I'll see what I can dig up on Oyster Bay and some other areas in Nassau that I'm curious about once I have a little time to go into LI results.  Keep in mind that the town boundaries of Oyster Bay actually cover quite a large section of the county, so it may not be all that helpful.  Narrowing down to the village boundaries within Oyster Bay will probably tell you more.

I haven't fully formed a theory on this yet, but my research into Putnam NY and around DC has given me a few initial thoughts.  Namely, that some of the areas in the Mid-Atlantic that swung towards Trump were exurbs that are so far out from the city center that they're almost rural areas, but are still connected by commuter train or within an hour's drive to the city.  The median household income in these areas is pretty high but the land values out in these areas is still low enough that housing is relatively affordable.

Now this won't describe all the places; like Nassau is a little closer in and not so rural, so something different is going on there.  Also this won't describe some of the wealthy Mountain West and Plains areas that I suspect swung to Trump (part of this is suspicion, part of this is confirmed by what NOVA G posted above).

[Keep cool-idge]

So the LongIsland thing I just find so odd like I have been all over the upper northeast and every area I look up trended to Hillary the only place I have ever seen that is wealthy that trended to trump was longisland it's just odd since longisland has been democrat since the nineties and the fact that trump won it is so odd.
Also does anyone are oysterbay town results because on the DDHQ map it's hard to tell since every precinct either had a massive swing to Hillary or Trump

Well, keep in mind it's not just LI.  Also swinging R was Putnam Cty NY, and several counties in MD and VA near DC (I've posted some town details above).

I'll see what I can dig up on Oyster Bay and some other areas in Nassau that I'm curious about once I have a little time to go into LI results.  Keep in mind that the town boundaries of Oyster Bay actually cover quite a large section of the county, so it may not be all that helpful.  Narrowing down to the village boundaries within Oyster Bay will probably tell you more.

I haven't fully formed a theory on this yet, but my research into Putnam NY and around DC has given me a few initial thoughts.  Namely, that some of the areas in the Mid-Atlantic that swung towards Trump were exurbs that are so far out from the city center that they're almost rural areas, but are still connected by commuter train or within an hour's drive to the city.  The median household income in these areas is pretty high but the land values out in these areas is still low enough that housing is relatively affordable.

Now this won't describe all the places; like Nassau is a little closer in and not so rural, so something different is going on there.  Also this won't describe some of the wealthy Mountain West and Plains areas that I suspect swung to Trump (part of this is suspicion, part of this is confirmed by what NOVA G posted above).

Something I should mention as well is that Nassau county is the most Jewish county in America at 18% again not a great demographic for republicans plus I'm pretty sure Nassau county is the 17th wealthiest county in America and yes oysterbay is very big there are over 300,000 people living there but I don't know if you have been but I have I went for teddy Roosevelt house but anyways there are tons of million dollar homes right next to TR house is the owner of the New York knicks home .

[Keep cool-idge]

So the LongIsland thing I just find so odd like I have been all over the upper northeast and every area I look up trended to Hillary the only place I have ever seen that is wealthy that trended to trump was longisland it's just odd since longisland has been democrat since the nineties and the fact that trump won it is so odd.
Also does anyone are oysterbay town results because on the DDHQ map it's hard to tell since every precinct either had a massive swing to Hillary or Trump

If I remember right, Italian Americans were one of the most, if not the most, pro Trump ethnic group (outside of maybe Scots Irish/"American" Appalachians).

Yea I have heard that Italian trended to trump which makes sense when you look at the states with the most amount of Italians but Nassau county also is the most Jewish county in America at 18% and that's not a trump friendly demographic.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

So the LongIsland thing I just find so odd like I have been all over the upper northeast and every area I look up trended to Hillary the only place I have ever seen that is wealthy that trended to trump was longisland it's just odd since longisland has been democrat since the nineties and the fact that trump won it is so odd.
Also does anyone are oysterbay town results because on the DDHQ map it's hard to tell since every precinct either had a massive swing to Hillary or Trump

If I remember right, Italian Americans were one of the most, if not the most, pro Trump ethnic group (outside of maybe Scots Irish/"American" Appalachians).

Yea I have heard that Italian trended to trump which makes sense when you look at the states with the most amount of Italians but Nassau county also is the most Jewish county in America at 18% and that's not a trump friendly demographic.

Not convinced this is very true outside the New York metro. It seems to me that the drop in most Philadelphia and Chicago neighborhoods is only modestly more than the African-American trend to Trump (i.e. Clinton dropping from Obama's insurmountable totals) and that the ones in the suburbs for both of these cities likely counteract it. I'd imagine Baltimore is likely similar. Boston could go either way, and I am not familiar enough to comment. New York is quite a unique animal, so I'd be taking extreme caution in extrapolating.

I know Monmouth County, where I lived for a bit, was one of the more notable county-wide swings, so I took a look at its de facto capital in Freehold where the population is separated into the poorer interior borough (median income 48.6k) and the outer-ring township. The township with median income 95k swung to Trump by 2.5%, which probably understates it because of the third party effect. Trump increased Romney's vote total by 8%, Clinton increased Obama's by just 2% and the sum of third parties increased by a whopping 106%! [The richest town in the county swung against him a little bit by high single digits, but he still took 67% of the vote which was his best performance across the county.]

[AN63093]

Something I should mention as well is that Nassau county is the most Jewish county in America at 18% again not a great demographic for republicans plus I'm pretty sure Nassau county is the 17th wealthiest county in America and yes oysterbay is very big there are over 300,000 people living there but I don't know if you have been but I have I went for teddy Roosevelt house but anyways there are tons of million dollar homes right next to TR house is the owner of the New York knicks home .

Nassau is the 13th richest.  Well, going by median household income, that is.

Yes, I've been to Oyster Bay, LOL.  I grew up in NY and my family has property in Manhattan and Long Island, so I'm very familiar with all the ins-and-outs in this region of the country.

The village within Oyster Bay that you're talking about (TR's house, the Dolans, etc), is Cove Neck (MHI, $195k).  It went for Clinton 48.2-44.9, Romney 56.4-42.1, for a D swing of +17.6.


I don't have time to really dig into Nassau comprehensively right now, but just by a quick search, it appears some of the interior towns were more likely to swing R than the coastal areas.  As an example, northern portions of:

Levittown, NY, $105,568 MHI

2016, Trump 54.2-42.4, R+11.8
2012, Obama 50.5-48.4, D+2
Swing R +13.8


The southern tracts of-
Hicksville, NY, $104,688 MHI

2016, Trump 51.7-45.2, R+6.5
2012, Obama 53.5-43.7, D+9.8
Swing R +16.3


Salisbury, NY, $108,625 MHI

2016, Trump 47.7-46.9, R+0.8
2012, Obama 53.8-44.8, D+9
Swing R +9.8


Those areas are very different than the areas you're thinking about along the coast, with large sprawling estates and what not.  The areas I posted above are post-WW2 suburban development, never-ending sprawl of 1950s cookie-cutter style homes, along meandering streets, etc.  It's some of the most stereotypical "American suburbia."

As far as your comment about the Jewish population- well, one of two things is happening; either a) Jews in Nassau are more R than usual; and/or b) the areas that swung R in Nassau were not very Jewish.  I suspect it's mostly "b"... the areas I listed above are some of the least Jewish areas in Nassau.

[Keep cool-idge]

Something I should mention as well is that Nassau county is the most Jewish county in America at 18% again not a great demographic for republicans plus I'm pretty sure Nassau county is the 17th wealthiest county in America and yes oysterbay is very big there are over 300,000 people living there but I don't know if you have been but I have I went for teddy Roosevelt house but anyways there are tons of million dollar homes right next to TR house is the owner of the New York knicks home .

Nassau is the 13th richest.  Well, going by median household income, that is.

Yes, I've been to Oyster Bay, LOL.  I grew up in NY and my family has property in Manhattan and Long Island, so I'm very familiar with all the ins-and-outs in this region of the country.

The village within Oyster Bay that you're talking about (TR's house, the Dolans, etc), is Cove Neck (MHI, $195k).  It went for Clinton 48.2-44.9, Romney 56.4-42.1, for a D swing of +17.6.


I don't have time to really dig into Nassau comprehensively right now, but just by a quick search, it appears some of the interior towns were more likely to swing R than the coastal areas.  As an example, northern portions of:

Levittown, NY, $105,568 MHI

2016, Trump 54.2-42.4, R+11.8
2012, Obama 50.5-48.4, D+2
Swing R +13.8


The southern tracts of-
Hicksville, NY, $104,688 MHI

2016, Trump 51.7-45.2, R+6.5
2012, Obama 53.5-43.7, D+9.8
Swing R +16.3


Salisbury, NY, $108,625 MHI

2016, Trump 47.7-46.9, R+0.8
2012, Obama 53.8-44.8, D+9
Swing R +9.8


Those areas are very different than the areas you're thinking about along the coast, with large sprawling estates and what not.  The areas I posted above are post-WW2 suburban development, never-ending sprawl of 1950s cookie-cutter style homes, along meandering streets, etc.  It's some of the most stereotypical "American suburbia."

As far as your comment about the Jewish population- well, one of two things is happening; either a) Jews in Nassau are more R than usual; and/or b) the areas that swung R in Nassau were not very Jewish.  I suspect it's mostly "b"... the areas I listed above are some of the least Jewish areas in Nassau.

Sort of sad to see the precinct with TR swing to Hillary,so I have only been to oysterbay that's as far i have been on longisland and what I mean is TRs home.
Okay so I just found a news article about longisland voting for trump by 2 points and it says that oysterbay went to him by 12 points where can I check for 2012 results?

[AN63093]

http://projects.newsday.com/long-island/politics/how-long-island-voted/


Interactive map you can click on individual precincts for 2012 and 2016.  As I mentioned, the areas that swung to Trump are some of these interior suburbs like Levittown, Hicksville, Salisbury, etc.  Hicksville is part of the town of Oyster Bay (keep in mind this town covers almost all of eastern Nassau), and the rest are part of Hempstead.

You can find lots of areas that voted for Trump (even by huge margins), but finding areas that swung to Trump is more of a challenge.  So far I'm thinking the areas around Levittown look like the highest income areas that swung to Trump.

[NOVA Green]

Wow!!!

Just jumped in a few hours after getting off work---- and gotta say tons of impressive contributions from all of the posters involved.

Pretty awesome to see all of the effort, and in less than 24 hours y'all are already posting tons of fascinating data and analysis, from a part of the country that I was born in and where both my parents were raised, but still have limited experience in regarding the Political Geography of these various counties/cities/towns within the region.

Apologies for jumping in and doing an "empty post" , but this is some pretty cool research and topic, and needed to just say this is and has been and should be, a continued contribution to the Political Science "Body of Knowledge", not only on Atlas, but within academia as well...

It's stuff like this that first got me into Atlas back in '08 back in my Mid '30s, and not all the crap posting and trolls of various political avatars that seem to inevitably crop up every GE season.

Will need to spend more time taking a look at all this on my weekend---- but pretty cool postings and data!

Y'all rock, and keep it coming!!!

[AN63093]

Agreed.  I've only registered/starting posting recently (just never had the time before), but have popped in now-and-then for almost 10 years.. mostly to read posts on demographics, geography, population trends, redistricting, etc.  There's been a lot of good work on this forum over the years.

One thing that I think would be a fascinating topic to really dig into (and one that I've speculated upon a tad above, but haven't gotten the chance to really analyze yet), is what distinguished the wealthy areas that swung Clinton, over those that swung Trump.

I know that 538 had an article about this, and if I recall correctly, they suggested it was educational level.  The implication being that the more "professional" types tended D, as opposed to the people who didn't have that education but were nonetheless wealthy.  An example of that might be a general contractor who learned a trade and eventually came to own/expand a successful construction business, something like that.

I'm not sure that I buy that entirely.  On one hand, there may be some evidence to support that.  For example, I would say that, at least from personal knowledge, there would tend to be more of those people in a place like Levittown NY (swung R), than Fairfield CT (swung D).  But that doesn't explain everywhere that I've discovered so far.  Another trend I noticed that I discussed above, was that far exurb areas that are not easy commutes (e.g. 90 min train rides to DC or NY) that had high household incomes, but still had affordable housing, swung R.  

One place I'm going to jump into next is the western US.. I expect to find several examples in the plains states and Mountain West (you've already done some of this work).

[Keep cool-idge]

Agreed.  I've only registered/starting posting recently (just never had the time before), but have popped in now-and-then for almost 10 years.. mostly to read posts on demographics, geography, population trends, redistricting, etc.  There's been a lot of good work on this forum over the years.

One thing that I think would be a fascinating topic to really dig into (and one that I've speculated upon a tad above, but haven't gotten the chance to really analyze yet), is what distinguished the wealthy areas that swung Clinton, over those that swung Trump.

I know that 538 had an article about this, and if I recall correctly, they suggested it was educational level.  The implication being that the more "professional" types tended D, as opposed to the people who didn't have that education but were nonetheless wealthy.  An example of that might be a general contractor who learned a trade and eventually came to own/expand a successful construction business, something like that.

I'm not sure that I buy that entirely.  On one hand, there may be some evidence to support that.  For example, I would say that, at least from personal knowledge, there would tend to be more of those people in a place like Levittown NY (swung R), than Fairfield CT (swung D).  But that doesn't explain everywhere that I've discovered so far.  Another trend I noticed that I discussed above, was that far exurb areas that are not easy commutes (e.g. 90 min train rides to DC or NY) that had high household incomes, but still had affordable housing, swung R.  

One place I'm going to jump into next is the western US.. I expect to find several examples in the plains states and Mountain West (you've already done some of this work).

Thanks for the longisland map it seems to me most that longisland really did swing to trump even the wealthy areas,in Connecticut it seems all wealthy area swung to Hillary and all poorer areas swung to trump.

[Lothal1]

Calvert County and St Mary's are both very rural Southern counties, besides the wealthiness. The best comparison for St Mary's County is Pensacola, home of a military base (NAVAIR) that drives the entire economy. Lots of military veterans, DOD workers, and contractors in St Mary's. 75% of the county is practically Southern/"redneck". Calvert's southern half is the exact same as St Mary's, people who commute to NAVAIR for work. Central Calvert is rural and southern. Northern Calvert however, is exactly what you are looking for: McMansions, bigass houses, rich people and southern-ish people. People there work in DC and commute from Calvert.

A simple markup of what I said

[AN63093]

I don't think characterizing those counties as culturally Southern explains why they swung R.  Lots of wealthy Southern communities swung D, in fact, arguably most of them did (see the other thread- wealthy communities that swung D).

Additionally, the Pax River base doesn't particularly help explain it either.  You could say the same thing for almost every county in the DC area; not all of them swung R.  Even your own example of Pensacola (Escambia Cty) both trended and swung D in 2016.

[Lothal1]

I don't think characterizing those counties as culturally Southern explains why they swung R.  Lots of wealthy Southern communities swung D, in fact, arguably most of them did (see the other thread- wealthy communities that swung D).

Additionally, the Pax River base doesn't particularly help explain it either.  You could say the same thing for almost every county in the DC area; not all of them swung R.  Even your own example of Pensacola (Escambia Cty) both trended and swung D in 2016.

It explains it exactly. A lot of people here were DOD workers disgusted by the email controversy. Military guys + veterans + conservative DOD workers + Southerners = GOP.

[AN63093]

Well then explain to me why other areas with a military base driving the local economy swung and trended D.  Your own example of Pensacola swung/trended D.  There are plenty of other examples too, even just in MD.  For example, Frederick County's economy is driven by Ft Detrick, which is also its largest employer.  Frederick Cty both swung/trended D.

[Lothal1]

Well then explain to me why other areas with a military base driving the local economy swung and trended D.  Your own example of Pensacola swung/trended D.  There are plenty of other examples too, even just in MD.  For example, Frederick County's economy is driven by Ft Detrick, which is also its largest employer.  Frederick Cty both swung/trended D.

Frederick: moco liberals.
Pensacola: no ideal.
St Mary's is pretty much made of people who moved from other places such as Pensacola, San Diego, Virginia Beach, and South Carolina and native born southerners.
Just so you know, Im from SOMD. The most noticeable thing about during the election was the massive amount of Trump yard signs in SOMD. The 60%+ districts nearly had every house have a yard sign in front of them. Enthusiasm was very high for Trump. Hilary and Obama was hated for a plethora of reasons. (Emails!!)

[njwes]

These are all affluent suburbs (and exurbs)... however, I should point out that they have quite a different... character... than some of these other wealthy communities.  It's partly because they're "new money," sure, but that's not just it.. because, after all, you can find plenty of new money in counties like Westchester NY (Scarsdale is a good example of this), and Westchester had a strong D trend.  The right words escape me at the moment... but people familiar with these areas will know what I'm talking about.  Long Island NY, in a lot of ways, "feels" more like Calvert County MD, than it does Westchester or Fairfield CT.

You're being very generous lol

I know exactly what you're talking about. And the pattern was somewhat similar in NJ--compare Morris County, e.g., to Monmouth.

Thank you guys for digging up all this info, it gave me a lot to think about.

[Tintrlvr]

These are all affluent suburbs (and exurbs)... however, I should point out that they have quite a different... character... than some of these other wealthy communities.  It's partly because they're "new money," sure, but that's not just it.. because, after all, you can find plenty of new money in counties like Westchester NY (Scarsdale is a good example of this), and Westchester had a strong D trend.  The right words escape me at the moment... but people familiar with these areas will know what I'm talking about.  Long Island NY, in a lot of ways, "feels" more like Calvert County MD, than it does Westchester or Fairfield CT.

You're being very generous lol

I know exactly what you're talking about. And the pattern was somewhat similar in NJ--compare Morris County, e.g., to Monmouth.

Thank you guys for digging up all this info, it gave me a lot to think about.

Heh. The wording there is very delicate. But everyone who grew up in the New York metro (or any other NE metro) would know *exactly* what is meant. The wealthy areas that swung R are the "low-class" wealthy areas. That doesn't mean that they are less wealthy than the "high-class" wealthy areas or that they are (for example) more newly wealthy. It doesn't even necessarily mean that there are clear demographic differences, although typically there are some identifiable demographic distinctions. Education level, as was mentioned on this thread, is a pretty clear marker - the "low-class" wealthy areas have a lot more construction worker union leaders who never finished high school and a lot fewer tenured university professors with PhDs (two groups that otherwise make comparable incomes), for example. It doesn't tell the entire story, though, as indicated by the outer exurban areas, some of which are relatively highly educated. There's a hint there, though, that the exurban areas are areas where people with the means to live closer chose to live as far away from the city as possible. The data doesn't exist, but I suspect the various studies of racial attitudes (controlling for region) would have the strongest correlation with the trends if applied on a precinct basis to wealthy areas.

[NOVA Green]

Agreed.  I've only registered/starting posting recently (just never had the time before), but have popped in now-and-then for almost 10 years.. mostly to read posts on demographics, geography, population trends, redistricting, etc.  There's been a lot of good work on this forum over the years.

One thing that I think would be a fascinating topic to really dig into (and one that I've speculated upon a tad above, but haven't gotten the chance to really analyze yet), is what distinguished the wealthy areas that swung Clinton, over those that swung Trump.

I know that 538 had an article about this, and if I recall correctly, they suggested it was educational level.  The implication being that the more "professional" types tended D, as opposed to the people who didn't have that education but were nonetheless wealthy.  An example of that might be a general contractor who learned a trade and eventually came to own/expand a successful construction business, something like that.

I'm not sure that I buy that entirely.  On one hand, there may be some evidence to support that.  For example, I would say that, at least from personal knowledge, there would tend to be more of those people in a place like Levittown NY (swung R), than Fairfield CT (swung D).  But that doesn't explain everywhere that I've discovered so far.  Another trend I noticed that I discussed above, was that far exurb areas that are not easy commutes (e.g. 90 min train rides to DC or NY) that had high household incomes, but still had affordable housing, swung R.  

One place I'm going to jump into next is the western US.. I expect to find several examples in the plains states and Mountain West (you've already done some of this work).

So unfortunately AN63093 hasn't posted since 11/21/17 on Atlas, who helped provide some perspectives and analysis on what is a generally considered a minor footnote to the "Conventional Wisdom" regarding the 2016 Presidential Election.

Now much of the discussion (now recently revived!) appears to be almost specifically exclusive to New England and Northeast/Central Atlantic region stretching from Boston to DC....

We have yet to see many data points regarding "Relatively wealthy areas" (As measured by municipal/ Census District MHI compared to County/State) from most other regions of our Great Nation from "Sea to Shining Sea"....

As AN63093 posted, he was planning on doing a bit more work regarding the Plains States and Mountain West....

So had a post on this back in the days on another thread...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.msg5795192#msg5795192

Although I don't have tons of precinct level data to update on this topic, in Oregon we see a few places where there was a theoretical swing towards Trump:

7.) Oatfield- MHI $67.6k/Yr- Uninc- Clackamas County- Pop 14.2k

90% White, 4.4% Latino

2012: (55- 42 D)     +13 D
2016: (51- 38 D)     +13 D     (+0% Dem Swing)

9.) Troutdale- MHI $62.3k/Yr---- Suburban Portland- East Multnomah County- Pop 16.2k

81.6% White, 6.7% Latino, 6.0% Asian

2012: (51- 46 D)   +5 D
2016: (44- 43 D)    +1 D (-4% Dem Swing)

Note the 3rd Party Swings in Bernie Country.... Blue Collar City basically as far away as you could get from Portland within Multnomah County.

California.... Margins Dem Swings....

Eastvale, Riverside County - MHI $115k/Yr - Pop 53.4k

2012: Obama  55.9 - 42.3
2016: Clinton  55.3 - 40.1  (+1.6% Dem swing)

Idaho....

A.) Hailey--- Pop 8.0k--- MHI $75.2k

2012: (67 D- 30 R)        +37 D

2016: (62 D- 29 R)        +33 D    (+4% R Swing)

Montana...

So Ok I find an alternate source that may or may not be accurate with precinct level boundaries in various places.... and was able to find an identifier for a community I was looking for (Take 3)

http://www.usboundary.com/Tools/Tile%20Maps/Voting%20District/Montana

So Park City Montana (Stillwater County)---- MHI $58.8k/Yr- Pop 1.0k

2012: (30 D- 69 R)       +39 R
2016: (19 D- 74 R)       +55 R    (+16% R Swing)....

Nebraska:

2.) Gretna-   (Sarpy County)--- MHI $73.7k-  Pop 5.1k

Precincts 59 & 60

2012: (32 D- 66 R)      +34 R
2016: (29 D- 62 R)      +33 R   (+1% D Swing)

3.) Papillion- (Sarpy County)--- MHI $ 72.4k- Pop 20.2k

Precincts 36,38,39,40, & 42).... There appears to be a few split precincts not included, but had to work with the best data available.

2012: (36 D- 62 R)       +26 R
2016: (33 D- 57 R)       +24 R   (+2% D Swing)

4.) Yankee Hill- (Lancaster County)- MHI $93.6- Pop 730

2012: (37 D- 62 R)        +25 R
2016: (32 D- 61 R)        +29 R   (+4% R Swing)

Maine:

Marginal swings towards HRC...

Cumberland County-

Portland: MHI $ 44.5k- Pop 66.2k
2012: (75 D- 20 R)--- 2016: (76 D- 18 R)--- +3% D Swing

South Portland: MHI $ 52.8k- Pop 25.1k
2012: (68 D- 28 R)--- 2016: (67 D- 27 R)---  +1% D Swing


New Hampshire:

Kennebec County

Hallowell- MHI $ 52.2k- Pop 2.4k: '12: (69 D- 26 R)--- '16: (69 D- 24 R)    +2% D Swing



Oklahoma:

Canadian County---

Wealthiest Places:

1.) Census Tract---- 301300--- MHI $ 100.66--- Pop 4.6k
(Precincts 226 & 308)--- Approximate match with Census Tract Lines

2012: (15.1 D- 84.9 R)---+69.8% R; 2016: (11.7 D- 82.7 R)---+71.0% R   (+1.2% R Swing)

3.) Piedmont----  MHI $72.6k--- Pop 6.0k

(Precincts 200, 503, 504, & 506)

2012: (22.4 D- 77.6 R)---+55.2% R; 2016: (19.4 D- 74.0 R)---+ 54.6 % R     (+0.6% D Swing)


Wyoming:

C.) Sleepy Hollow, Wyoming (Campbell County)

Sleepy Hollow--- MHI $ 102.4k--- Pop 1.1k


2012: (12.8% D- 86.2% R)       +73% R
2016: (6.3% D-   86.2% R)       +80% R      (+7% R Swing)

Arizona:

3.) Queen Creek (Maricopa Co Only)Sad

MHI: $ 83.7k/Yr
Pop: 27.1k
Race/Ethnicity: 75.7% Anglo, 27.6% Latino, 3.0% African-American,

2012: 2,189 Obama (27.4% D), 5,663 Trump (70.9% R)         + 43.5% R
2016: 4,379 HRC (25.9% D), 11,179 Trump (66.0% R)           +40.1% R     (+3.4% D Swing)

So this fast growing Exurb of Phoenix apparently did not swing Democratic between '12 and '16 in any significant manner....


So even though this is a bit of a rethread, trying to consolidate precinct and municipal level data I have posted elsewhere, wanted to throw it into the mix for compare/contrast discussion in the "Western Midwest" (Great Plains), "Mountain States", and West Coast.

Not really any particular insights yet on these regions, although it appears that 3rd Party Votes to the "Left" explain the few isolated data points on the West Coast of the US....

Basically my research into wealthier communities on about four or five different threads based upon precinct results tended to be heavily focused on either wealthiest cities/municipalities/CDPs within given states and/or wealthiest places within some of the wealthiest counties within given states.

Have we really seen any examples for example of exurban areas of the Mountain West or West Coast swing towards Trump compared to Romney '12?

Although I confess I have not done a comprehensive precinct level analysis of this data, it does appear that there are very few areas of the Mountain West / West Coast / Western Midwest/ Great Plains where this would be the case....

Apologies for any repetition of data based upon precinct consolidation that I have posted on various other threads....

Thoughts/Contributions?

[King of Kensington]

Keep in mind that "wealthiest counties" often means highest median HH income, which often means homogeneous prosperous outer suburbs or exurbs almost completely made up of SFHs with 2 earners, often with a nouveau riche bent.  Includes a lot of middle management types and so on.  It's generally not where the real "elites" live.  They tend to live in more "inner" areas where you'll find more apartments, seniors and so on.

For instance, Loudoun County may have a higher median HH income than Montgomery or Fairfax counties, but you'll find more wealth in Montgomery and Fairfax (and NW DC).  These are where you'll find the elite professionals, Ivy League grads and so on.

Similarly, Suffolk, Putnam and Monmouth come out "ahead" of Westchester and Fairfield, but they're obviously less "elite."