Future Realignment Possibilities?

[Kingpoleon]

This is my rough expectations. I think I have too many swing states, it seems a tad too Democratic-leaning, and I'm not sure about CO, MT, AK, HI, and UT.

I'm imagining this as:
2021-2029: Gwen Graham/Ben Jealous


2028: Gov. Robert Kennedy Jr./Sen. Caroline Fayard vs. Gov. Elise Stefanik/Sen. Mia Love

[Kingpoleon]

-snippity snip-

Sanders supporters tended to be more liberal on social issues, not economic ones. So were Johnson supporters, who often polled in double digits among millenials.
Sanders managed to acquire a reputation as honest and full of integrity. Being as it is not true, I can't imagine it lasting long.

For your first point, can you provide a source? The article you posted doesn't have this point as a central point, do you mind copying the text for me? It doesn't necessarily make sense, considering how Sanders won by large margins in the more fiscally egalitarian, socially conservative states like West Virginia and Oklahoma. He also came really close, outperforming his national margin significantly, in Kentucky and Missouri. It was Clinton who swept fiscally conservative, socially liberal states such as New Jersey. Of course, both Sanders and Clinton swept states that are fiscally and socially left-wing; Sanders winning the Oregon and Washington, Clinton winning Maryland.

Also, about the Johnson voters, there is another point to be brought up too (that I forgot about at first), and that is the fact that even millennial conservatives tend to be less socially conservative than the Republicans. It is more likely than not that Johnson pulled more voters from these two main groups; millennial conservatives, who wanted the fiscal conservatism yet not the social conservatism, and the "DUDE WEED LMAO" crowd, which was the overlap between Johnson and Sanders.

As for your second point, again, can you provide any evidence? Sanders built his reputation of honesty and integrity because he refuses to take big-money donations, unlike Clinton who does speeches for Goldman Sachs. He made campaign finance reform a central point of his campaign. If he continues to do this, how exactly will this reputation decline? Please, lay it out for me. Sanders didn't get his honest reputation from a shooting star, he built it from scratch. He has held elected office for much longer than Clinton, so it's not because of political career length.

>b-b-but Clinton was ferociously attacked by the GOP

Yeah, so? This is politics, put up or shut up. You have to be able to defend yourself and your reputation from such attacks. If you can't, you're an incompetent politician. This didn't happen to Barack Obama, look at the approval ratings at the end of his presidency. He also had the added disadvantage of being a black guy with the middle name Hussein.

Oregon is, from my understand, an oddball state. It likes Democrats who are libertarianish who appeal to farmers and the working class.

[Kingpoleon]

Anyway, here's my realignment map if a left-populist Democratic party becomes the majority party, by the early 2030s:

The Democratic coalition is powerful but a skilled Republican can win in the Lean D states.

If a popular Orange County Republican runs in 2032 versus an uninspiring Democrat:

Your maps look good, but they do strike me as bit too much rooted in the 20th century. For example I don't think Washington would be more democratic than California at this point with the dramatic changes that have occurred in the state.
Also I doubt that a state like Mississippi would be more republican than states like Arkansa and Tennessee. The days of the whiter southern states being relatively unaffected by racial polarisation are over.

In what world are we vulnerable to populism? We are a clash of Mississippian minorities, upper middle class people, and Deep South/Western/Midwestern/Northern culture.

[Kingpoleon]

We are a clash of Mississippian minorities

Arkansas is 72.9% white, well above the national average, and is therefore considered to be one of the whitest Southern states.

upper middle class people

You mean how Arkansas has consistently ranked in the bottom 10 states in terms of GDP per capita for the past decade?

Deep South/Western/Midwestern/Northern culture.

I don't understand your implication here.

I'm not going to try to pretend to know more about your state than you do, but based off of statistical evidence, it seems that you have to try again at your argument.

Also, it's quite hilarious to see you refer to the affection for populism as a vulnerability.

... If you really can't understand relativity of GDP and income, then I don't know what you expect me to say. We have the lowest unemployment rate for fifty years - the amount of time it's been tracked.