Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration

[ShadowRocket]

I know TD sees him as more of a Al Smith-type figure, but Sherrod Brown would strike me as the next best candidate for being the realigning president if things don't work out with Cordray.   

[Pericles]

Why does Texas remain Republican?

[Kingpoleon]

This is my rough expectations. I think I have too many swing states, it seems a tad too Democratic-leaning, and I'm not sure about CO, MT, AK, HI, and UT.

[mvd10]

This is my rough expectations. I think I have too many swing states, it seems a tad too Democratic-leaning, and I'm not sure about CO, MT, AK, HI, and UT.

That map might be spot on if if shows the trends, but I think the change is too radical. Assuming TD's theory is correct I can see something like this being the map in the late 2030s:

[Cashew]

This is my rough expectations. I think I have too many swing states, it seems a tad too Democratic-leaning, and I'm not sure about CO, MT, AK, HI, and UT.

That map might be spot on if if shows the trends, but I think the change is too radical. Assuming TD's theory is correct I can see something like this being the map in the late 2030s:

Those are maps for civil unrest, not Democratic dominance.

[PoliticalShelter]

Those are maps for civil unrest, not Democratic dominance.

Because those maps don't show that, they both look pretty competitive between the two parties.

[PoliticalShelter]

Anyway I'm more inclined toward the map by mvd10 than kingpoleon and I agree that there won't be that many radical changes to the map, not by the 2030s at least.

[Cashew]

Those are maps for civil unrest, not Democratic dominance.

Because those maps don't show that, they both look pretty competitive between the two parties.

It's not truly a realignment if Democrats are disadvantaged in the senate.

[GlobeSoc]

One thing that interests me would be documenting now defunct trends. I'm not sure how useful that would be, but it might help us understand the previous alignments better.

[Devout Centrist]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

TD is a time traveler confirmed

[GlobeSoc]

I'm making a lean-likely-safe county map of what I suspect the tied realignment map would look like after the mirror-Bill Clinton comes into power. I'm struck by how strong the WA and OR margins would be for the republican presidential candidate. King County seems like a perfect description of the new republicans: wealthy,urban, and white, with a substantial asian minority. It would be close due to partisanship, but the republicans would basically guarantee a poll-closing time call by winning it and the surrounding suburban counties, which would be more republican. Whilst the democrats would be able to prevent it from becoming the next Wyoming through union whites in the current WA 6th congressional district, and hispanics+Yakima+some rural whites in the 4th, it would not be nearly enough to counter the republican trend in the vast majority of the seattle metro. The rural counties would be closer than now, but in most of them, without a substantial hispanic minority or unions, the 'right type of democrat' could win, but the standard democrat would have a hard time.

Oregon has this, but even worse, as the only core of democratic strength would be an enclave in and around Benton County, as all the hispanics would do is make Malheur close.



Both states have the vast majority of counties in the lean or likely R columns, reflecting the states as a whole. Between them, only 8 counties are in the safe R column, a combination of wealthy suburban counties that are already decently close, and rural counties that are so staunchly republican that it would take until the 2040s for them to become vaguely competitive. The only 3 safe D counties are Benton, Lane and Yakima.

Next is California!

[GlobeSoc]

^ Cool

California will be interesting to see in this alignment. It probably won't be 30 point blowouts ala 2016 anymore.

Yes, based on their sheer wealth and current inflated democratic strength, West Coast (sub)urban whites and asians would likely become the most r trending group in the country. While in most places whites would get more democratic, this is not one of them.

California is interesting because it would presumably be the first 99% suburban and urban bellweather

[_]

CA would be Lean D in about 2040 in this alignment imo, but it will be trending R as Hispanics enter the Middle Class and Asians increase in population.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

I'm making a lean-likely-safe county map of what I suspect the tied realignment map would look like after the mirror-Bill Clinton comes into power. I'm struck by how strong the WA and OR margins would be for the republican presidential candidate. King County seems like a perfect description of the new republicans: wealthy,urban, and white, with a substantial asian minority. It would be close due to partisanship, but the republicans would basically guarantee a poll-closing time call by winning it and the surrounding suburban counties, which would be more republican. Whilst the democrats would be able to prevent it from becoming the next Wyoming through union whites in the current WA 6th congressional district, and hispanics+Yakima+some rural whites in the 4th, it would not be nearly enough to counter the republican trend in the vast majority of the seattle metro. The rural counties would be closer than now, but in most of them, without a substantial hispanic minority or unions, the 'right type of democrat' could win, but the standard democrat would have a hard time.

Oregon has this, but even worse, as the only core of democratic strength would be an enclave in and around Benton County, as all the hispanics would do is make Malheur close.



Both states have the vast majority of counties in the lean or likely R columns, reflecting the states as a whole. Between them, only 8 counties are in the safe R column, a combination of wealthy suburban counties that are already decently close, and rural counties that are so staunchly republican that it would take until the 2040s for them to become vaguely competitive. The only 3 safe D counties are Benton, Lane and Yakima.

Next is California!

I'd guess Oregon would be R+1 in PVI, and Washington R+8. California I'd say D+5. Washington is a much better fit for the republicans.

[GlobeSoc]

Taking a preliminary look at California, it seems that it would have large swathes of narrowly republican suburbs in a duel with the less populous but staunchly democratic Los Angeles, with San Diego County and San Francisco deciding the winner. Lean D, but barely so.

[GlobeSoc]

Quick map of California



Tomorrow, I'll start by making edits and moving west to NV, AZ, and UT

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Looking at Arizona income statistics, it seems like it might become another Nevada, with Maricopa acting like clark, helped out by a few small hispanic counties in the south.

[_]

The Walrus,

Great work! Are you going county by county based on median income/home price? I do wonder how purchasing power parity will factor into states shifting left or right in this alignment. Iowa for example has the third highest PPP and isn't exactly a bastion of working class whites ala West Virginia as some would think.

Here's the list of states by PPP:

Hmm, if IL is between WA and OR in Purchasing Power, I'd guess that IL would be about R+4.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

The Walrus,

Great work! Are you going county by county based on median income/home price? I do wonder how purchasing power parity will factor into states shifting left or right in this alignment. Iowa for example has the third highest PPP and isn't exactly a bastion of working class whites ala West Virginia as some would think.

Here's the list of states by PPP:

That PPP list was what I was using for my states map two pages back.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

The Walrus,

Great work! Are you going county by county based on median income/home price? I do wonder how purchasing power parity will factor into states shifting left or right in this alignment. Iowa for example has the third highest PPP and isn't exactly a bastion of working class whites ala West Virginia as some would think.

Here's the list of states by PPP:

Hmm, if IL is between WA and OR in Purchasing Power, I'd guess that IL would be about R+4.

I had it as R+3, but of course differences those small don't really matter on the scale of decades.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2014/06/16/worst-places/d92796c59951a5cccb3ad6411f599ad302a5c4bd/map-fallback.png
I finally found a map of PPP income by county.

[GlobeSoc]

The Walrus,

Great work! Are you going county by county based on median income/home price? I do wonder how purchasing power parity will factor into states shifting left or right in this alignment. Iowa for example has the third highest PPP and isn't exactly a bastion of working class whites ala West Virginia as some would think.

Here's the list of states by PPP:

Right now I'm using a map of racial census data(2010) and my intuition, that's how I was able to make it that fast. I did take a glance at home price, but not as much as I would've liked. v3 will add the 3 states I mentioned earlier, and v4 will go back and adjust ratings in the states I've already done. Of particular interest is shifting some lean R San Francisco metro counties out of that column in either direction.

I think that PPP will be a somewhat-but-not-too-important factor that affects R vs D voting behavior. It will probably be the key reason that the interior plains stay republican, though.

FWIW I think Iowa will end up being one of the most Republican states in the country - even if this alignment doesn't quite pan out exactly as foretold. It's filled with white rural and suburban voters who live quite comfortably with their cost of living. The GOP have always been the Party of more established groups - both economically and ethnically/racially. And Iowa appears to fit that mold very well.

I agree

[GlobeSoc]

https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2014/06/16/worst-places/d92796c59951a5cccb3ad6411f599ad302a5c4bd/map-fallback.png
I finally found a map of PPP income by county.

This is really helpful, I will use it in v4 to make things more 'accurate'

[GlobeSoc]

I have v3 ready for release tomorrow morning, so I will be able to go straightaway to v4 and incorporating more data like PPP and home prices.

The Southwest seems much more polarized than the West Coast, with the number of safe counties much higher.

[GlobeSoc]

The Southwest seems much more polarized than the West Coast, with the number of safe counties much higher.

Interesting...is your data suggesting that Oregon and Washington are swing states with California being lean/likely D while states like Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico are staying mostly in the D column?

It's a combination of hispanics swinging currently d areas more d and sparsely populated areas that are currently voting for republicans so strongly that the wwc d swing barely makes a dent in the likelihood of dems winning those counties