Who Wins the Alabama Runoff?

[Free Bird]

Something tells me this will be a Thad Cochran 2014 repeat. Tilt Strange because swamp money.

[Tender Branson]

Have the 3rd, 4th and 5th placed candidates already endorsed someone ?

[Free Bird]

Have the 3rd, 4th and 5th placed candidates already endorsed someone ?

Either DDHQ or RRH, can't remember, said that Brooks gave Moore the biggest non-endorsement endorsement you could ask for. No word on Pittman or Brinson, but I would imagine they're going to privately vote for Moore if they ran against the incumbent Strange in the first place.

[Lachi]

Moore, unfortunately.

Another era of hatefulness and religious bigotry is about to begin. Moore shouldn't even be allowed to run if he is currently suspended for being a judge.

[smoltchanov]

Moore, unfortunately.

Another era of hatefulness and religious bigotry is about to begin. Moore shouldn't even be allowed to run if he is currently suspended for being a judge.

Someone correctly said that by Alabama standards Moore could pass as a moderate. Yeah, he is a religious nutjob, but there are worse people there. The state was always very conservative socially and racially, and not neccessary - very liberal even on economy. Right now ultraconservative Republicans are "correct" representatives of it, and "liberals" are people like Richard Shelby. So, while i am very glad that Doug Jones won the primary over nobody, he has almost zero chances. Simply beause his positions are much to the left of most Alabama voter's.

[windjammer]

Something tells me this will be a Thad Cochran 2014 repeat. Tilt Strange because swamp money.

Why would AL blacks derail the rep primaries?

[Free Bird]

Moore, unfortunately.

Another era of hatefulness and religious bigotry is about to begin. Moore shouldn't even be allowed to run if he is currently suspended for being a judge.

You say that like Alabama hasn't always had that bubble with their delegation. They're harmless.

[Chief Justice Keef]

It's going to be closer than most people expect, but I think Moore wins 53-47 or something like that. Strange is gonna have all the backing of the establishment with probably more money-on-hand, and there's a chance we could see a repeat of MS 2014, but we've seen time and time again that Republican voters don't really care about establishment choices anymore.

If Moore does get the nomination, though, Jones ought to fight tooth and nail in the general. The fact that we might end up with U.S. Senator Roy Moore is absurdly terrifying.

[Del Tachi]

Strange over-performed exponentially in the first-round, he'll probably finish less than 6 points behind Moore.  With only 32% of the vote in his pocket, he'll have a lot of work to do but I think he has a lot more potential to expand his base than Moore does.

I don't think Strange winning would be very analogous to MS-2014.  Strange is a "new establishment" figure who has wed himself to Trump.  He's not going to attack Moore from the right or left, he's going to attack Moore from the Trump by saying that he's the candidate who could best pursue the President's agenda.  I expect Trump will be coming to Alabama sometime before the runoff.

I'll predict 54-46 Strange for now, with my map being Strange having big wins in Jefferson, Tuscaloosa, Shelby, Madison, Montgomery, Lee, Mobile, Baldwin and a few Black Belt counties.     

[smoltchanov]

It's going to be closer than most people expect, but I think Moore wins 53-47 or something like that. Strange is gonna have all the backing of the establishment with probably more money-on-hand, and there's a chance we could see a repeat of MS 2014, but we've seen time and time again that Republican voters don't really care about establishment choices anymore.

If Moore does get the nomination, though, Jones ought to fight tooth and nail in the general. The fact that we might end up with U.S. Senator Roy Moore is absurdly terrifying.

Jones is much more liberal then median Alabama voter (who is, probably, closer to Moore). 5% chance..

[Fudotei]

Luther Strange is not that popular in Alabama. An incumbent senator endorsed by Trump himself and with $4 million in ads managed to win ~31% of the vote.

There was a recent case like this where Dean Heller was appointed to the Senate, just in 2011. He won 86% of the vote, not 31%. With that comparison, and the favorable rating gap for Strange (who is underwater) I'd say Moore's definitely leading. 55% right now.. that could improve, honestly. Not a lot of Brooks voters who will transition that into an avoid-Roy-Moore-at-all-costs.

[NewYorkExpress]

Moore wins 55-45.

[Greedo punched first]

Strange over-performed exponentially in the first-round, he'll probably finish less than 6 points behind Moore.  With only 32% of the vote in his pocket, he'll have a lot of work to do but I think he has a lot more potential to expand his base than Moore does.

I don't think Strange winning would be very analogous to MS-2014.  Strange is a "new establishment" figure who has wed himself to Trump.  He's not going to attack Moore from the right or left, he's going to attack Moore from the Trump by saying that he's the candidate who could best pursue the President's agenda.  I expect Trump will be coming to Alabama sometime before the runoff.

I'll predict 54-46 Strange for now, with my map being Strange having big wins in Jefferson, Tuscaloosa, Shelby, Madison, Montgomery, Lee, Mobile, Baldwin and a few Black Belt counties.     

I think Strange wins. Who would win the black vote in the GOP primary, Strange or Moore?

[Del Tachi]

Strange over-performed exponentially in the first-round, he'll probably finish less than 6 points behind Moore.  With only 32% of the vote in his pocket, he'll have a lot of work to do but I think he has a lot more potential to expand his base than Moore does.

I don't think Strange winning would be very analogous to MS-2014.  Strange is a "new establishment" figure who has wed himself to Trump.  He's not going to attack Moore from the right or left, he's going to attack Moore from the Trump by saying that he's the candidate who could best pursue the President's agenda.  I expect Trump will be coming to Alabama sometime before the runoff.

I'll predict 54-46 Strange for now, with my map being Strange having big wins in Jefferson, Tuscaloosa, Shelby, Madison, Montgomery, Lee, Mobile, Baldwin and a few Black Belt counties.     

I think Strange wins. Who would win the black vote in the GOP primary, Strange or Moore?

As a gay establishment Republican, definitely Strange.

[Maxwell]

Roy Moore, potentially by a lot.

Luther Strange would sell his mom into slavery for another political promotion. He is a literal swamp monster. I dislike both of these men intensely but I somehow cheer on Strange's political demise far more than Moore's, mainly because Moore has been vanquished over and over and over again only to rise again like a zombie. Only one outcome would be humiliating to either man - a large Moore victory over an incumbent Strange.

I say despite knowing that Strange, in the era of Trump, would have a harder time in the general election than Moore. Still, I think Jones has no chance and the best possible hope is a single digit loss.

[TheLeftwardTide]

Moore. I generally agree with the ideas put forth in this thread. I'm probably just going to have to start accepting U.S. Senator Roy Moore as a reality at this point. Mississippi is looking pretty good with Cochran and Wicker at this point.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Roy Moore, unfortunately. I still can't believe someone who makes traditional marriage a campaign base can still win in 2017. Literally under "positions" he says he opposes same-sex marriage.

[smoltchanov]

Roy Moore, unfortunately. I still can't believe someone who makes traditional marriage a campaign base can still win in 2017. Literally under "positions" he says he opposes same-sex marriage.

As was said by many - it's Alabama. One of the most conservative states in US...

[Alabama_Indy10]

Roy Moore, unfortunately. I still can't believe someone who makes traditional marriage a campaign base can still win in 2017. Literally under "positions" he says he opposes same-sex marriage.

Like most Alabamians.

[Xing]

Moore, but probably not by as much as people expect.

[_]

Moore, 52.5-47.5.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Roy Moore, unfortunately. I still can't believe someone who makes traditional marriage a campaign base can still win in 2017. Literally under "positions" he says he opposes same-sex marriage.

Like most Alabamians.

Like the vast majority of humanity.

[mcmikk]

Roy Moore, unfortunately. I still can't believe someone who makes traditional marriage a campaign base can still win in 2017. Literally under "positions" he says he opposes same-sex marriage.

It's Alabama.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Roy Moore, unfortunately. I still can't believe someone who makes traditional marriage a campaign base can still win in 2017. Literally under "positions" he says he opposes same-sex marriage.

Like most Alabamians.

Like the vast majority of humanity.

None of it makes it any less terrible.

[smoltchanov]

Roy Moore, unfortunately. I still can't believe someone who makes traditional marriage a campaign base can still win in 2017. Literally under "positions" he says he opposes same-sex marriage.

Like most Alabamians.

Like the vast majority of humanity.

None of it makes it any less terrible.

Depends on point of view. From yours - of course. From Roy Moore's - quite differently..