Assuming its a Tossup Election and if up to this point its (Trump 2020/Democrat 2024/Democrat from 2024 doesn't run for reelection):
(Not to 2028 Numbers)
Senator from New York Kyle Kulinski/Senator from Hawaii Tulsi Gabbard - 71,463,762/279 EV/50.84%Governor from California Ben Shapiro/Senator from Texas Ted Cruz - 65,867,454/259 EV/ 47.61%Ben Shapiro sweeps the deep south due to his religious views and Kyle's atheism off-puts black social conservative turnout in the region. Shapiro also does well in the Mountain west touting Libertarian economic policy's along with support for state by state non lethal drug legalization (Not marijuana do to the fact that it is most likely legalized nation wide by now). He does very well in more conservative suburbs nationwide.
Meanwhile on the Other side Kyle Kulinski sweeps the Northeast and West Coast due to his Secular views and wins the Rustbelt swing region due to economic populism and Shapiro's disgust for any use of populism at all. He all does very well in Colorado winning 54-44%, Barely holds onto Nevada due to Shapiro winning more of the Hispanic vote with the State voting 48.3-47.1% for Kulinski, Loses Iowa and Ohio by slim margins, and barely loses Florida doing very well in the Southern counties but being swamped in the north and southwest, and also wins 49-47.1% though due to Shapiro's over-performance in the southeast of the state along with doing better in NOVA. However the states growing Democratic trend is too strong too overcome and thus goes to Kulinski.
The Closet states are Florida, Wisconsin, Arizona, Ohio, North Carolina, and Iowa in that Order. But of course the real reason as a previous poster has pointed out he wins is due to Big Seltzer Money.
