Northern Plains

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Option 6 is possible if you think the only way for these states to flip is some massive realignment.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You mean Presidential elections right? Hard to tell... but not Nebraska.

[A18]

Only way this happens (in the near future) is in a '64-type landslide or a vote split.

[Virginian87]

I'd say either South Dakota or Nebraska is the most Republican state of this group.  But Montana will be the first of this group to go Democrat.  Montanans like Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer, giving him a 57 percent approval rating, higher than either of his two Republican predecessors at this point in their tenures.  I believe Democrats also took control of the state legislature last November as well.  Sen. Max Baucus, a pro-choice, pro-gun, pro-death penalty Democrat, has an approval rating of 58 percent.  

Although Republican Sen. Conrad Burns has approval ratings near there, he barely won re-election over Schweitzer in 2000.  He may also be linked to a scandal involving Jack Abramoff.  Burns allegedly received over $136,000 in campaign contributions through Abramoff and then directed $3 million to the Saginaw Chippewa Tribe of Michigan, an Abramoff client and one of the wealthiest tribes in the country from a program intended to help the neediest tribes fix delapidated schools.  He faces a battle against either Montana State Senate President and organic farmer Jon Tester or Montana State Auditor John Morrison next year, both of which appear to me to be populist-leaning Democrats.  If someone could elaborate on that, that would be helpful.

I think with a moderate, populist-leaning Democrat, Montana could be carried in a presidential election.  It is not impossible.

[A18]

Populism is not an ideology. Populism is rhetoric.

[Gustaf]

Populism is not an ideology. Populism is rhetoric.

How does that counter the statement "a populist-leaning Democrat could carry Montana"? Not to mention that I disagree.

Montana was carried by a Democrat only 13 years ago (1992). So I'd say that it's possible, though in the short run not likely.

[A18]

You can't lean towards a form of rhetoric.

Montana was not carried by Clinton, it was 'carried' by Clinton, as a gift from Perot.

[Gustaf]

You can't lean towards a form of rhetoric.

Montana was not carried by Clinton, it was 'carried' by Clinton, as a gift from Perot.

Why not? I would say your rethoric can lean towards a form of rethoric, and in a campaign rethoric is mostly what matters anyway.

That doesn't actually change the fact that it was won by a Democratic candidate. I'm fully aware of the reasons, but a split in the Republican vote could easily happen again.

[Alcon]

Montana.

On the national level, of all these states, Montana and South Dakota are the most Dem-friendly.  Montana and South Dakota Democrats do, however, tend to be populists (the most liberal areas of both states are populist).  However, the Republicans tend to be libertarians, as do the independents.

I choose Montana over South Dakota because Montana is more solidly libertarian, although there would certainly be some loss in the Butte-Anaconda area, a Democratic stronghold, if we nominated a libertarian.

A good libertarian that could maintain the populist base, winning in a landslide, could take Montana, and maybe South Dakota.

North Dakota is a longshot even in a landslide, while Nebraska is pretty much an impossibility at this point.

[Cashcow]

You are overestimating the "libertarianism" in this country. Most people in the plains are just conservative, sometimes with a lean on drug laws.

[Alcon]

You are overestimating the "libertarianism" in this country. Most people in the plains are just conservative, sometimes with a lean on drug laws.

Good point.

Most people in this area are conservative - they just want the government out of their lives, which is what I mean by "libertarian."  They aren't exactly going to legalize civil unions, but it's a form of libertarianism.  Just a very GOP-friendly one.

There are a few more classic libertarians in Montana than South Dakota, while there are more conserva-libertarians relative to the number of overall conservatives in South Dakota than in Montana.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Populism is not an ideology. Populism is rhetoric.

The little man, as he suffers under the yoke of despotism, of croneyism, of nepotism, and the big-money, big city, godless power brokers who rule his life and his livelihood... yes the little man would not call it rhetoric, but TRUTH, my friend.  And America is waking up to this TRUTH, from sea to shining sea... from the city worker living in the slums of Detroit, to the Appalachian coal miner, to the struggling family farmer in Iowa.  We shall take this nation back.  Back to the people, of whom, by whom, and for whom our government exists!  It is our divine right, and Providence shall favor our undertakings, just as He did in 1776, when our great forefathers threw off the last evil despotism from our shores!

Rhetoric?  Rhetoric, you say?!  Hardly.

[MissCatholic]

Nebraska has gone way to the right. They are more pally with Wyoming than the Dakotas.

Montana will vote democrat next though. We just a populist moderate nominee. Bayh and Warner will break 40% easily in 08.

[bgwah]

Montana is more libertarian than it is populist.

[Alcon]

Montana is more libertarian than it is populist.

Although it is libertarian, it is also moralistic, and thus could go for a populist.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Montana is more libertarian than it is populist.

Yes, No, Depends what you mean by libertarian, depends what you mean by populists

[A18]

Populism is not an ideology. Populism is rhetoric.

The little man, as he suffers under the yoke of despotism, of croneyism, of nepotism, and the big-money, big city, godless power brokers who rule his life and his livelihood... yes the little man would not call it rhetoric, but TRUTH, my friend. And America is waking up to this TRUTH, from sea to shining sea... from the city worker living in the slums of Detroit, to the Appalachian coal miner, to the struggling family farmer in Iowa. We shall take this nation back. Back to the people, of whom, by whom, and for whom our government exists! It is our divine right, and Providence shall favor our undertakings, just as He did in 1776, when our great forefathers threw off the last evil despotism from our shores!

Rhetoric? Rhetoric, you say?! Hardly.

So rhetoric, then.

[Gustaf]

Populism is not an ideology. Populism is rhetoric.

The little man, as he suffers under the yoke of despotism, of croneyism, of nepotism, and the big-money, big city, godless power brokers who rule his life and his livelihood... yes the little man would not call it rhetoric, but TRUTH, my friend. And America is waking up to this TRUTH, from sea to shining sea... from the city worker living in the slums of Detroit, to the Appalachian coal miner, to the struggling family farmer in Iowa. We shall take this nation back. Back to the people, of whom, by whom, and for whom our government exists! It is our divine right, and Providence shall favor our undertakings, just as He did in 1776, when our great forefathers threw off the last evil despotism from our shores!

Rhetoric? Rhetoric, you say?! Hardly.

So rhetoric, then.

Lol, I have to agree that that post was more rethoric than substance.

[minionofmidas]

I misvoted accidentally. I wanted to vote for SD and MT, but voted for SD and none ever.

[MasterJedi]

I still say it's both the Dakotas.

[Virginian87]

I still say it's both the Dakotas.

Why do you say that?  Perhaps North Dakota, but if you recall South Dakotans just booted the Senate Minority Leader last year.  Though with military base closures there, perhaps things might change.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Populism is not an ideology. Populism is rhetoric.

The little man, as he suffers under the yoke of despotism, of croneyism, of nepotism, and the big-money, big city, godless power brokers who rule his life and his livelihood... yes the little man would not call it rhetoric, but TRUTH, my friend. And America is waking up to this TRUTH, from sea to shining sea... from the city worker living in the slums of Detroit, to the Appalachian coal miner, to the struggling family farmer in Iowa. We shall take this nation back. Back to the people, of whom, by whom, and for whom our government exists! It is our divine right, and Providence shall favor our undertakings, just as He did in 1776, when our great forefathers threw off the last evil despotism from our shores!

Rhetoric? Rhetoric, you say?! Hardly.

So rhetoric, then.

Lol, I have to agree that that post was more rethoric than substance.

I'm glad to see that some people understand sarcasm.

[Gustaf]

Populism is not an ideology. Populism is rhetoric.

The little man, as he suffers under the yoke of despotism, of croneyism, of nepotism, and the big-money, big city, godless power brokers who rule his life and his livelihood... yes the little man would not call it rhetoric, but TRUTH, my friend. And America is waking up to this TRUTH, from sea to shining sea... from the city worker living in the slums of Detroit, to the Appalachian coal miner, to the struggling family farmer in Iowa. We shall take this nation back. Back to the people, of whom, by whom, and for whom our government exists! It is our divine right, and Providence shall favor our undertakings, just as He did in 1776, when our great forefathers threw off the last evil despotism from our shores!

Rhetoric? Rhetoric, you say?! Hardly.

So rhetoric, then.

Lol, I have to agree that that post was more rethoric than substance.

I'm glad to see that some people understand sarcasm.

It's running low lately...interestingly, populist Democrats on teh forum seem to be the most lacking when it comes to getting sarcasm or jokes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

interestingly, populist Democrats on teh forum seem to be the most lacking when it comes to getting sarcasm or jokes.

Hey!

[Hitchabrut]

South Dakota, but the necessary circumstances would be unlikely to occur.