NH-ARG: Kasich leading Trump, Pence in GOP primary.

[Mr. Morden]

Even though ARG is terrible, I’ll post the Kasich vs. Trump crosstabs here for entertainment purposes:

Republicans: Kasich +9
Indies: Kasich +17
men: Trump +13
women: Kasich +36
age 18-49: Kasich +7
age 50+: Kasich +15
approve of Trump’s job performance: Trump +19
disapprove of Trump’s job performance: Kasich +36

That’s a heck of a gender gap.

In any case, if anyone does run in the 2020 primaries against Trump, I imagine the “drug-infested den” line will be making its way to New Hampshire campaign ads in about two years’ time.

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, I would be curious to see a hypothetical Kasich vs. Trump 1 on 1 poll from last year January or February, just before the primary.  I can't find one right now, though PPP did test Rubio vs. Trump in their January 2016 poll:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_10616.pdf

Rubio 52%
Trump 40%

They also had Cruz ahead of Trump in a 1-on-1 matchup.  But the overall poll with the whole field was:

Trump 29%
Rubio 15%
Christie 11%
Kasich 11%
Bush 10%
Cruz 10%

And Trump's favorability / unfavorability rating among GOP primary voters in the poll was 49% / 44%.

So even though Trump won the primary there, I'm not sure he's ever been super-popular among GOP primary voters in NH.  It's just that the other candidates split the non-Trump vote.

[Kingpoleon]

Reminder: ARG had practically perfect polls on the New Hampshire primaries in 2016.

[Shadows]

Trump destroyed everyone in the NH Primary. His presidency has been terrible, the gender gap is huge, Angry NH women hate him & the NH Drug infested den line is obviously not helping him.

If Trump keeps it up then NH is out of play in 2020 for President Trump which makes it even more critical for him to win all of MI, WI & PA (which also looks hard).

[AN63093]

ARG poll obviously, so insert caveats and asterisks here.

That being said, that Pence result is pretty funny.  Then again, not that surprising necessarily-  Kasich is probably one of the better fits for NH after Trump, and Pence is one of the worst.

I'd love to see this same poll run in Iowa.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump destroyed everyone in the NH Primary.

He won a 35% plurality in a crowded field.  It's unclear how he would have done in a 1-on-1 match against Kasich, which is the scenario imagined in this poll.

That being said, that Pence result is pretty funny.

Pence doesn't have the benefit of being the incumbent president.  That's worth at least a few points of goodwill from the voters in your own party.  It's quite possible that if Trump resigned and Pence became prez, his standing in polls like this would improve markedly.

[uti2]

Trump destroyed everyone in the NH Primary.

He won a 35% plurality in a crowded field.  It's unclear how he would have done in a 1-on-1 match against Kasich, which is the scenario imagined in this poll.

That being said, that Pence result is pretty funny.

Pence doesn't have the benefit of being the incumbent president.  That's worth at least a few points of goodwill from the voters in your own party.  It's quite possible that if Trump resigned and Pence became prez, his standing in polls like this would improve markedly.

Not really. Moderate Ford barely beat Reagan in the NH '76 primary, and Ford was a great fit for the state. There's a difference between an elected incumbent and an unelected incumbent.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Are you guys seriously believing ARG? They suck as a company.

The Pence numbers are more interesting than the Trump numbers.

This poll is worse news for Pence than Trump. The fact that Pence can't even break 30% in the state demonstrates that his base is pretty small there. Obviously, margins can be improved during the course of campaigning, but Pence will have to deal with an inherently smaller level of core support, esp. amongst Moderate Republicans.

I wonder how Pence would do against just Kasich. The northeast was Kasich's best region in the primaries (aside from Ohio) though this poll might indicate that Pence is a poor fit for the northeast. It wouldn't surprise me, since the northeast tends to reject hardline conservatism.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

why didn't they poll JEB BUSH

[TheSaint250]

why didn't they poll JEB BUSH

We need some excitement and unpredictability in polls, not Trump getting Blanched by Jeb! Jeb would win every primary and every state in the general and make DC a tossup

[NEW JERSEY FOR MENENDEZ]

why didn't they poll JEB BUSH

Because Jeb would reach 500% in their polling.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

IIRC ARG is usually pretty good in NH

[Doimper]

Are you guys seriously believing ARG? They suck as a company.

The Pence numbers are more interesting than the Trump numbers.

This poll is worse news for Pence than Trump. The fact that Pence can't even break 30% in the state demonstrates that his base is pretty small there. Obviously, margins can be improved during the course of campaigning, but Pence will have to deal with an inherently smaller level of core support, esp. amongst Moderate Republicans.

Pence would fare much better in Iowa.

[Mike Thick]

IIRC ARG is usually pretty good in NH

They missed the mark on the Democratic side by quite a bit last year, but nailed the Republican side.

[RINO Tom]

why didn't they poll JEB BUSH

We need some excitement and unpredictability in polls, not Trump getting Blanched by Jeb! Jeb would win every primary and every state in the general and make DC a tossup

QFT

[Ye We Can]

I want to believe.

[Canis]

I want to believe.

who would you support?

[Ye We Can]

I want to believe.

who would you support?

Kasich, enthusiastically.

[NewYorkExpress]

There's no way the Pence numbers are accurate, given he's the only adult in the West Wing.

He's probably leading Kasich something like 38-37.

[uti2]

There's no way the Pence numbers are accurate, given he's the only adult in the West Wing.

He's probably leading Kasich something like 38-37.

Pence was never elected. Kasich would technically have greater justification for a bid against Pence.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Trump is an unpopular incumbent, Pence is the VP of an unpopular incumbent.

Pence's chances probably will be better if he's running as the incumbent president in 2020.

[uti2]

Trump is an unpopular incumbent, Pence is the VP of an unpopular incumbent.

Pence's chances probably will be better if he's running as the incumbent president in 2020.

Pence is unelected. There would be an easy justification for a primary challenge to Pence. Pence wouldn't have an inherent right to the position. It should be pointed out that both LBJ in '64 and Ford in '76 struggled as unelected incumbents in their respective primaries.

[CubanoTX]

Just want everyone to know Hillary is +8 in Wisconsin. Shes got that state on lock

[mcmikk]

why didn't they poll JEB BUSH

We need some excitement and unpredictability in polls, not Trump getting Blanched by Jeb! Jeb would win every primary and every state in the general and make DC a tossup

[Mr. Morden]

I mean can't the GOP come up with a candidate who didn't run in 2016 and got crushed by Trump in the process?

It's quite possible that such a candidate will run, but candidates who have already run before are going to have higher name recognition and thus will do better in ridiculously early polls like this.  ARG presumably picked Kasich for their poll because of name recognition, but that doesn't mean there aren't other candidates out there who might run.