College Football pick'em 2017- Gameplay and scoring thread

[RINO Tom]

Week Ten

Wisconsin at Indiana - big upset pick of the week, Indiana stuns at home

This is my favorite pick.

It would be like Appalachian State defeating Michigan. Indiana has been basically an FCS team for a good two decades now at least.

#FakeNews. At least for the last 5 years, IU has been a mid-tier B1G team. Their statistical profile over the same time frame suggests a team in the 60th percentile of all FBS teams, or roughly top 50 (see http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa). rutger is a much worse team.

What's amusing about this statement is that Indiana is 1-2 against Rutgers.

And Illinois basketball swept Northwestern last year.  So what?  NU was clearly better.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Week Ten

Wisconsin at Indiana - big upset pick of the week, Indiana stuns at home

This is my favorite pick.

It would be like Appalachian State defeating Michigan. Indiana has been basically an FCS team for a good two decades now at least.

#FakeNews. At least for the last 5 years, IU has been a mid-tier B1G team. Their statistical profile over the same time frame suggests a team in the 60th percentile of all FBS teams, or roughly top 50 (see http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa). rutger is a much worse team.

What's amusing about this statement is that Indiana is 1-2 against Rutgers.

Is this meant to suggest that Kansas is better than Texas? Or that Clemson is worse than Syracuse? Or that Iowa is better than Iowa State? Teams can lose and still overall be a better team.

Record is a pretty silly way to judge the quality of a team when we have detailed statistical profiles that beat the spread something like 55-60% of the time and predict the winner straight up in excess of 85% of the time. Those same profiles have Indiana much better than Rutgers.

[Gass3268]

They took Michigan into overtime, Wisconsin hasn't really proven itself yet imo and I think they may be caught by surprise, it'll be a close game regardless, though. (Wisconsin is favored by 10.5 in the odds right now which I think is probably their ceiling)

Spread has actually moved towards Wisconsin, opened at 9.5.

Both teams have a lot of injuries. Wisconsin had 5 starters on the injury report, while 11 Indiana starters have been injured at various times this year.

I'm worried about the game, but I would be less so if their all-World Freshman RB Johnathan Taylor is able to go and Safety D'Cota Dixon is back.

[Dereich]

October 31

Miami(OH) at Ohio


November 1

Central Michigan at Western Michigan

November 2

Northern Illinois at Toledo

Navy at Temple


November 3

Marshall at Florida Atlantic

UCLA at Utah


November 4

Penn State at Michigan State

Ohio State at Iowa

Clemson at NC State

Virginia Tech at Miami(FL)

Oregon at Washington

Stanford at Washington State

South Florida at Connecticut

UCF at SMU

Arizona at USC

Colorado at Arizona State

Minnesota at Michigan

Wisconsin at Indiana

Auburn at Texas A&M

Illinois at Purdue

Kansas State at Texas Tech

WKU at Vanderbilt

Baylor at Kansas

Syracuse at Florida State

Georgia Tech at Virginia

Appalachian State at Louisiana-Monroe

South Carolina at Georgia

Wake Forest at Notre Dame

Iowa State at West Virginia

Maryland at Rutgers

Army at Air Force

Northwestern at Nebraska

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State

Mississippi at Kentucky

Colorado State at Wyoming

UT San Antonio at Florida International

Texas at TCU

Southern Mississippi at Tennessee

LSU at Alabama


-Oklahoma State is favored, but it still feels like I'm picking an upset here. This will be an all-QB, no D, 63-59 kind of game. Whatever the over is, I'd take it.

-Meanwhile, LSU Bama will be an 11-3 or so kind of game. Come on Coach O! You and Auburn are our only hopes left to stop another Bama championship and nobody wants to rely on Auburn!

-FSU has more than enough talent to beat Syracuse, but the players aren't playing as a team anymore. I'm predicting the worst, hoping for the best.

-Come on Iowa! You always drag teams down to a low scoring slog! Stop Ohio State!

-If Muschamp beats Georgia the week after Georgia helped put the final nail in his successor's coffin, it'll be the greatest cosmic joke of all time. MAKE IT HAPPEN GEORGIA (only Georgia can make this happen, Muschamp is incapable of making good things happen on his own.)

[NewYorkExpress]

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21242205/cfp-georgia-bulldogs-alabama-crimson-tide-notre-dame-fighting-irish-clemson-tigers-top-four-teams

So the first CFB Playoff Rankings are out, and the top four are as follows:

1. Georgia (SEC)
2. Alabama (SEC)
3. Notre Dame (Independent)
4. Clemson (ACC)

Is there any scenario where both Georgia and Alabama make the playoff? And if that scenario happens, just how angry would fans of other conferences (PAC-12-Washington, BIG Twelve-TCU/Oklahoma, Big Ten- Ohio State/Wisconsin) be?

[Dereich]

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21242205/cfp-georgia-bulldogs-alabama-crimson-tide-notre-dame-fighting-irish-clemson-tigers-top-four-teams

So the first CFB Playoff Rankings are out, and the top four are as follows:

1. Georgia (SEC)
2. Alabama (SEC)
3. Notre Dame (Independent)
4. Clemson (ACC)

Is there any scenario where both Georgia and Alabama make the playoff? And if that scenario happens, just how angry would fans of other conferences (PAC-12-Washington, BIG Twelve-TCU/Oklahoma, Big Ten- Ohio State/Wisconsin) be?

Pretty dang mad, especially since for it to happen you probably need an SEC championship with #1 vs #2 which would then probably drop one of the teams from to #4...and would set up an IMMEDIATE rematch a few hours away in the Sugar Bowl. That's unsettling for fans, makes a WHOLE bunch of conferences angry, and would probably be awful for ratings as well. Especially since the thing Georgia is really good at, running the ball, is a) not that interesting and b) what Bama is specifically designed to stop.

[NewYorkExpress]

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21242205/cfp-georgia-bulldogs-alabama-crimson-tide-notre-dame-fighting-irish-clemson-tigers-top-four-teams

So the first CFB Playoff Rankings are out, and the top four are as follows:

1. Georgia (SEC)
2. Alabama (SEC)
3. Notre Dame (Independent)
4. Clemson (ACC)

Is there any scenario where both Georgia and Alabama make the playoff? And if that scenario happens, just how angry would fans of other conferences (PAC-12-Washington, BIG Twelve-TCU/Oklahoma, Big Ten- Ohio State/Wisconsin) be?

Pretty dang mad, especially since for it to happen you probably need an SEC championship with #1 vs #2 which would then probably drop one of the teams from to #4...and would set up an IMMEDIATE rematch a few hours away in the Sugar Bowl. That's unsettling for fans, makes a WHOLE bunch of conferences angry, and would probably be awful for ratings as well. Especially since the thing Georgia is really good at, running the ball, is a) not that interesting and b) what Bama is specifically designed to stop.

Or they flip-flop the loser of the SEC Championship game with Notre Dame instead to avoid that scenario. The Committee almost certainly does take ratings into account.

[Dereich]

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21242205/cfp-georgia-bulldogs-alabama-crimson-tide-notre-dame-fighting-irish-clemson-tigers-top-four-teams

So the first CFB Playoff Rankings are out, and the top four are as follows:

1. Georgia (SEC)
2. Alabama (SEC)
3. Notre Dame (Independent)
4. Clemson (ACC)

Is there any scenario where both Georgia and Alabama make the playoff? And if that scenario happens, just how angry would fans of other conferences (PAC-12-Washington, BIG Twelve-TCU/Oklahoma, Big Ten- Ohio State/Wisconsin) be?

Pretty dang mad, especially since for it to happen you probably need an SEC championship with #1 vs #2 which would then probably drop one of the teams from to #4...and would set up an IMMEDIATE rematch a few hours away in the Sugar Bowl. That's unsettling for fans, makes a WHOLE bunch of conferences angry, and would probably be awful for ratings as well. Especially since the thing Georgia is really good at, running the ball, is a) not that interesting and b) what Bama is specifically designed to stop.

Or they flip-flop the loser of the SEC Championship game with Notre Dame instead to avoid that scenario. The Committee almost certainly does take ratings into account.

Oh, even if every team wins out, it's unlikely we'd be talking about the same top 4. A one-loss or undefeated BIG10 champion will always get in. ND plays a mostly ACC schedule anyway; I'd think that if they get in no ACC team would be making it.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Big 12 will probably get in, I think the only conference that is out for sure is Pac 12 right now because RIP

[Dereich]

Big 12 will probably get in, I think the only conference that is out for sure is Pac 12 right now because RIP

A 1 loss Washington champ is by no means out for sure.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think it's virtually certain that, if Alabama and Georgia play at 12-0, both teams are in regardless of the result of the SEC Championship Game (maybe unless one team gets blown out).  I could even see the loser only dropping to #3.

[Dereich]

I think it's virtually certain that, if Alabama and Georgia play at 12-0, both teams are in regardless of the result of the SEC Championship Game (maybe unless one team gets blown out).  I could even see the loser only dropping to #3.

Why would you ever assume that? This isn't the SEC of six or seven years ago; most of the East is so terrible that winning out won't be that impressive. It's very possible that less than half of the SEC East will have winning seasons. Assuming Georgia loses to Bama by 14 like the early Vegas line predicts, what about their resume makes them impressive? They'll have the one point win to ND and a good win over an 8 or 9 win Mississippi State team. Who would their next best win be after that? Unranked (after two losses) Auburn? Kentucky?

I have trouble seeing how the committee leaves ANY one loss champion out for the SEC loser. I even doubt they pick Georgia over one loss Notre Dame; they showed last year with Penn State/Ohio State that head-to-head isn't decisive and ND would have the more impressive list of wins.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

I think it's virtually certain that, if Alabama and Georgia play at 12-0, both teams are in regardless of the result of the SEC Championship Game (maybe unless one team gets blown out).  I could even see the loser only dropping to #3.

Why would you ever assume that? This isn't the SEC of six or seven years ago; most of the East is so terrible that winning out won't be that impressive. It's very possible that less than half of the SEC East will have winning seasons. Assuming Georgia loses to Bama by 14 like the early Vegas line predicts, what about their resume makes them impressive? They'll have the one point win to ND and a good win over an 8 or 9 win Mississippi State team. Who would their next best win be after that? Unranked (after two losses) Auburn? Kentucky?

I have trouble seeing how the committee leaves ANY one loss champion out for the SEC loser. I even doubt they pick Georgia over one loss Notre Dame; they showed last year with Penn State/Ohio State that head-to-head isn't decisive and ND would have the more impressive list of wins.

Tough to directly compare the two, because Penn State had two bad losses last year - to 8-4 Pitt and a 39-point thrashing by Michigan. If UGA wins out and loses a close game to Alabama and ND wins out, the decision wouldn't be an easy one. Heck, I don't know who I'd choose if the #4 spot was between those two. ND might also be in a hard spot without the veneer of "conference champion," as 2014 Baylor and TCU can sadly attest to.

Aside, my biggest hope is for enough chaos to happen to allow UCF a shot. It's not like they can do much worse than the Big 10's representatives the last two years.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

I kind of doubt UCF can get in since CFP Poll has them starting at #18

[Sirius_]

Guys, just remember that the only ranking that matters is the final one. I highly doubt they’d put in two SEC teams, they’ve never doubled up on a conference before. I also don’t see why ND playing mostly ACC teams would immediatley count out the ACC champion. If the ACC champion ends up being NC State than I can see it, but not for Clemson or Miami.

[Dereich]

Guys, just remember that the only ranking that matters is the final one. I highly doubt they’d put in two SEC teams, they’ve never doubled up on a conference before. I also don’t see why ND playing mostly ACC teams would immediatley count out the ACC champion. If the ACC champion ends up being NC State than I can see it, but not for Clemson or Miami.

Clemson maybe not, but Miami plays ND. If you're talking about a 1 loss Miami champion or 1 loss ND which BEAT Miami and has improved since its loss, you probably leave out the ACC champ.

[Sirius_]

Guys, just remember that the only ranking that matters is the final one. I highly doubt they’d put in two SEC teams, they’ve never doubled up on a conference before. I also don’t see why ND playing mostly ACC teams would immediatley count out the ACC champion. If the ACC champion ends up being NC State than I can see it, but not for Clemson or Miami.

Clemson maybe not, but Miami plays ND. If you're talking about a 1 loss Miami champion or 1 loss ND which BEAT Miami and has improved since its loss, you probably leave out the ACC champ.

Perhaps. But ND lost to Georgia.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

I kind of doubt UCF can get in since CFP Poll has them starting at #18

Which is a shame. They're one of the five best teams in CFB right now and if enough other teams stumble, they've earned their shot.

[Alabama_Indy10]

I think it's virtually certain that, if Alabama and Georgia play at 12-0, both teams are in regardless of the result of the SEC Championship Game (maybe unless one team gets blown out).  I could even see the loser only dropping to #3.

I agree.

[Alabama_Indy10]

I kind of doubt UCF can get in since CFP Poll has them starting at #18

Which is a shame. They're one of the five best teams in CFB right now and if enough other teams stumble, they've earned their shot.

How have they earned it? By beating Navy and Memphis?

[NewYorkExpress]

I kind of doubt UCF can get in since CFP Poll has them starting at #18

Which is a shame. They're one of the five best teams in CFB right now and if enough other teams stumble, they've earned their shot.

How have they earned it? By beating Navy and Memphis?

Memphis is in the AP Top 25...

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Well, Western Michigan led for almost the whole game, but Central Michigan staged a major comeback and won the game, we unanimously picked Western Michigan so guess we don't take a hit except % wise....

[NewYorkExpress]

Well, Western Michigan led for almost the whole game, but Central Michigan staged a major comeback and won the game, we unanimously picked Western Michigan so guess we don't take a hit except % wise....

And, honestly, percentage should only come into play if two or more people have the same number of wins.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Well, Western Michigan led for almost the whole game, but Central Michigan staged a major comeback and won the game, we unanimously picked Western Michigan so guess we don't take a hit except % wise....

And, honestly, percentage should only come into play if two or more people have the same number of wins.

meh, I include % because I think it's fun to play for if you started late or missed a game etc, still a good indicator

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

I kind of doubt UCF can get in since CFP Poll has them starting at #18

Which is a shame. They're one of the five best teams in CFB right now and if enough other teams stumble, they've earned their shot.

How have they earned it? By beating Navy and Memphis?

Please read the bolded portion. If UCF wins out, they'll have wins over USF, top-25 Memphis and whoever the AAC West champ is. And if other P-5 contenders stumble, then yes, UCF has earned it's shot.

Honestly, I'd take UCF over Clemson if they played tomorrow on a neutral field.