AZ-PPP (D): Flake getting crushed by Generic Democrat

[_]

I think he's better than 18-62 approval, still Lean R.

[DrScholl]

It's amazing how sketchy polls showing Kid Rock leading are taken as the gospel, but when a credible pollster shows a Republican down that poll is dismissed as being biased. Get real.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's amazing how sketchy polls showing Kid Rock leading are taken as the gospel, but when a credible pollster shows a Republican down that poll is dismissed as being biased. Get real.

It's pretty Obvious that Flake is not down by 16, and I'm not taking the kid rock stuff as gospel either.

[Coraxion]

It's amazing how sketchy polls showing Kid Rock leading are taken as the gospel, but when a credible pollster shows a Republican down that poll is dismissed as being biased. Get real.

[MAINEiac4434]

Ward will probably be the GOP nominee anyways.

And absolutely hand this race to Kyrsten Sinema.

[TheSaint250]

Who is the strongest Democratic candidate in Arizona?

Stanton, Sinema, Gallego, Kelly

I'd always thought of Gallego as a rising star. Has he speculated running for something higher than rep?

[President Johnson]

Freedom poll. But not accurate I guess. With Flake, it's still a toss-up or lean Republican. If Ward is the nominee, toss-up to lean Democratic.

[pbrower2a]

I think he's better than 18-62 approval, still Lean R.

There's a gap of 20%  of 'don't know/no opinion' that usually gets filled  in over time. I'm mpredicting that most of that gap goes sympathetic to Senator Flake. Here's the problem: even if most of the gap goes to the Republican nominee, Senator Flake must still cut into the segment of 62% disapproval. That is theoretically possible... but it is also tough. Elected officials have a tough time rebounding from bad situations that lead to unflattering polling even if such is not their fault. See the Republican wave election of 2010.

[Coraxion]

Who is the strongest Democratic candidate in Arizona?

Stanton, Sinema, Gallego, Kelly

I'd always thought of Gallego as a rising star. Has he speculated running for something higher than rep?

I think he's too progressive for Arizona statewide.

[Mr. Smith]

I still don't understand why so many people think Flake Johnson will hang on while Heller Kirk won't. I think Heller Kirk is much more likely to win reelection than Flake Johnson (but I think they'll both lose in the end).

FTFY, but I do hope you're right about that last part.

Heller losing and Arizona pulling a Tennessee '94 is the best shot atm.

[Pericles]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hey-democrats-maybe-you-should-run-someone-against-jeff-flake/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would love to see a tied Senate again or a 50/49 R Senate with Kid Rock def Stabenow.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I would say with Ward it's like 47R-43D.

Heller will lose by 3-4 points

Ward would still lose.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, Thanx for correction.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lean D

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Fake poll. Flake wins against a generic D 53-42. Ward on the other hand would lose 49-47 vs gen d.

[Maxwell]

oh sh** oh sh** its gettin real

I feel a Flake retirement is not out of the cards.

uhhh time to start polling in Texas.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Fake poll. Flake wins against a generic D 53-42. Ward on the other hand would lose 49-47 vs gen d.

Thanks for concern trolling. Flake is undoubtedly unpopular and this isn't anything new for him

You are welcome. And you will see Jeff Flake win reelection in 2018, but then make some bs excuse and empty insult against me.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Let's get generic D consistently above 50% before getting too excited, but yeah this is hilarious.

[Pollster]

Against a named candidate I would predict Flake would be down 4-6 points in this poll. The approval numbers probably aren't accurate but if they are (and are being replicated in internals for other orgs/candidates/etc) Flake could well lose the primary.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Fake poll. Flake wins against a generic D 53-42. Ward on the other hand would lose 49-47 vs gen d.

Flake barely defeated a novice democrat politician in 2012, a massive Obama year. His chances of winning in a year with a president that has a 33% approval rating are very slim.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Fake poll. Flake wins against a generic D 53-42. Ward on the other hand would lose 49-47 vs gen d.

Flake barely defeated a novice democrat politician in 2012, a massive Obama year. His chances of winning in a year with a president that has a 33% approval rating are very slim.

Still a hispanic military dude he ran against though, very appealing. Arizona is a reddish state, and Flake has that moderate tone, distanced himself from the drumpft quite a bit, and hence will do better in Maricopa county, and is running against a bunch of nobodies in the dem bench so far. Recruit Stanton, Sinema, or Kelly, and then we can talk. Otherwise, Lean R.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

You are welcome. And you will see Jeff Flake win reelection in 2018, but then make some bs excuse and empty insult against me.

He does that all the time, don't bother. Back on topic... I think a 53/42 win is unlikely given the state's trend, his unpopularity and Trump only winning AZ it by 3 in 2016. I wouldn't underestimate him but I also wouldn't be surprised if he lost narrowly. He doesn't know when to shut up, and has exasperated the Republican base many times (which is a dumb decision in a state like AZ). This poll is obviously nonsense, Flake won't lose by 20 points (and neither will Heller, btw), and he's also not in a worse position than McCaskill. 

Gun to my head, Flake wins by 2-4 while Heller loses by 2-6. AZ is Tilt/Lean R, NV Lean D.

Again, I totally agree that 53-42 is waaay too generous towards Flake against one of the big three potentials in the D primary, but against the current declared bench of nobodies, it's fair.

[AppleJackass]

Fake poll

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Fake poll