IL-Norminton Petts: Generic Dem 49 - Rauner 37

[PragmaticPopulist]

https://www.scribd.com/document/354841585/DGA-Interested-Parties-Poll-Memo-7-26-17

Same poll also gives Rauner a horrid 36-63 approval rating. While Rauner looks in trouble, its too early to say if this is gonna be a Blanching. I think Rauner may have a chance if he makes the race about Madigan's corruption or Prizker's deal with Blagojevich.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Democratic internal, but not dismissing it. Anyway, we all know "generic Democrat" isn't going to win the nomination.

Lean D for now. Democrats are favored, but I don't believe Rauner is going to get Blanched.

[Gass3268]

Won't get Blanched, but definitely Kirked.

[NewYorkExpress]

Likely D, unless Pritzker gets the nomination (Tilt R) or Kennedy gets the nomination (Lean D).

[Ye We Can]

Rauner has a very high floor (the budget battles are very polarizing, and RINO Tom's would still swing for him even today)hasn't been immobilized like Kirk, this is a very local race, and generic D does not exist, especially in Illinois.

That being said, Rauner hasn't been acting like he wants to get re-elected recently.

[Phony Moderate]

This is a shock as Illinois governors are usually known for their towering popularity.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This is a shock as Illinois governors are usually known for their towering popularity.

Blagovich and Quinn were never very popular.

[Kamala]

This is a shock as Illinois governors are usually known for their towering popularity.

Blagovich and Quinn were never very popular.

This is a shock as Wulfric is usually known for his sharp wit.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Likely D, unless Pritzker gets the nomination (Tilt R) or Kennedy gets the nomination (Lean D).

Likely D is a too Dem-friendly rating for right now. Rauner isn't DOA, and I doubt he has a 63% disapproval rating. But yes, I do think Kennedy is the better D candidate. Tossup for now, buit showing signs of Leaning D.

[Xing]

Rauner shouldn't be counted out this early, but I think a 12-point loss is definitely a possibility. He's going to have a tough time if he can't improve his approval ratings.

[maga2020]

Rauner has money and Madigan will be blamed by the crisis.

When the dem is not so generic, the only place that's going to vote for him is Crime, I mean, Cook County.

[Gass3268]

Rauner has money and Madigan will be blamed by the crisis.

When the dem is not so generic, the only place that's going to vote for him is Crime, I mean, Cook County.

Polling has shown the public has blamed Rauner.

[Kamala]

Rauner has money and Madigan will be blamed by the crisis.

When the dem is not so generic, the only place that's going to vote for him is Crime, I mean, Cook County.

Ah, yes, every single one of Cook County's some-5 million-odd residents is a criminal.

[Donerail]

this race is lean D in all scenarios. probably the best candidate for Rauner to go up against is Kennedy.

[RINO Tom]

Rauner desperately needs to make this about him being a check on Madigan.  Period.  If he can effectively do that, he will win again.  For those who constantly think about Illinois as Democratic Chicagoland vs. Republican Downstate, this is the key to Rauner's victory:

54% of the State Representatives in the State House from the districts in the collar counties are Republicans.  It is still a Republican area at the local level, and Rauner needs the same voters who voted them in to put him back in the governor's mansion.

[maga2020]

Rauner has money and Madigan will be blamed by the crisis.

When the dem is not so generic, the only place that's going to vote for him is Crime, I mean, Cook County.

Ah, yes, every single one of Cook County's some-5 million-odd residents is a criminal.

Ah, yes, Cook and the city who anchors it aren't crime-ridden areas.

Cook County is Crime County, regardless of who lives there and the only place in Illinois that votes for democrats at state level, that will be true in Michigan in a few years, with the democrat only winning Wayne and their living experiment of liberal failure: Detroit.

[RINO Tom]

Rauner has money and Madigan will be blamed by the crisis.

When the dem is not so generic, the only place that's going to vote for him is Crime, I mean, Cook County.

Ah, yes, every single one of Cook County's some-5 million-odd residents is a criminal.

Ah, yes, Cook and the city who anchors it aren't crime-ridden areas.

Cook County is Crime County, regardless of who lives there and the only place in Illinois that votes for democrats at state level, that will be true in Michigan in a few years, with the democrat only winning Wayne and their living experiment of liberal failure: Detroit.

440,213 people in Cook County voted for Donald Trump.  512,164 people in Cook County voted for Mark Kirk.  To generalize a county of 5 million people is just wrong, regardless of your politics.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Rauner has money and Madigan will be blamed by the crisis.

When the dem is not so generic, the only place that's going to vote for him is Crime, I mean, Cook County.

Ah, yes, every single one of Cook County's some-5 million-odd residents is a criminal.

Ah, yes, Cook and the city who anchors it aren't crime-ridden areas.

Cook County is Crime County, regardless of who lives there and the only place in Illinois that votes for democrats at state level, that will be true in Michigan in a few years, with the democrat only winning Wayne and their living experiment of liberal failure: Detroit.

440,213 people in Cook County voted for Donald Trump.  512,164 people in Cook County voted for Mark Kirk.  To generalize a county of 5 million people is just wrong, regardless of your politics.

maga2020 is just another Trump troll echoing Trump's rhetoric about Chicago. He wants us to respond somewhere along the lines of "It's wrong to characterize cities like Chicago and Detroit as crime-ridden liberal failures." So let's just ignore him.

Anyway, back on topic. I wouldn't be surprised if Rauner pulls off a win if he makes the race all about Madigan and JB Pritzker is the nominee. When will IL Democrats learn to stop relying so much on Chicagoland, and instead make inroads in more recently-lost territory like the counties in IL-17?

[RINO Tom]

Rauner has money and Madigan will be blamed by the crisis.

When the dem is not so generic, the only place that's going to vote for him is Crime, I mean, Cook County.

Ah, yes, every single one of Cook County's some-5 million-odd residents is a criminal.

Ah, yes, Cook and the city who anchors it aren't crime-ridden areas.

Cook County is Crime County, regardless of who lives there and the only place in Illinois that votes for democrats at state level, that will be true in Michigan in a few years, with the democrat only winning Wayne and their living experiment of liberal failure: Detroit.

440,213 people in Cook County voted for Donald Trump.  512,164 people in Cook County voted for Mark Kirk.  To generalize a county of 5 million people is just wrong, regardless of your politics.

maga2020 is just another Trump troll echoing Trump's rhetoric about Chicago. He wants us to respond somewhere along the lines of "It's wrong to characterize cities like Chicago and Detroit as crime-ridden liberal failures." So let's just ignore him.

Anyway, back on topic. I wouldn't be surprised if Rauner pulls off a win if he makes the race all about Madigan and JB Pritzker is the nominee. When will IL Democrats learn to stop relying so much on Chicagoland, and instead make inroads in more recently-lost territory like the counties in IL-17?

Traditional statewide politics (correct me if I'm wrong, muon) has seemed to be a solidly Republican collar county caucus, a solidly Democratic Cook County caucus, a solidly Republican Northern and Centeral Illinois Downstate caucus (with exceptions in a few areas like the Quad Cities, of course) and a pretty Democratic Southern Illinois caucus (with some exceptions like the farming counties in South Central IL).  Chicago Democrats were easily the best combination of most united faction and large enough faction once everything is broken apart, and they have usually gotten their way unless the Republicans are totally united and have the seats.

[Kamala]

Rauner has money and Madigan will be blamed by the crisis.

When the dem is not so generic, the only place that's going to vote for him is Crime, I mean, Cook County.

Ah, yes, every single one of Cook County's some-5 million-odd residents is a criminal.

Ah, yes, Cook and the city who anchors it aren't crime-ridden areas.

Cook County is Crime County, regardless of who lives there and the only place in Illinois that votes for democrats at state level, that will be true in Michigan in a few years, with the democrat only winning Wayne and their living experiment of liberal failure: Detroit.

Big if true: urban areas have crime. Nice #analysis.

[Rjjr77]

Rauner has money and Madigan will be blamed by the crisis.

When the dem is not so generic, the only place that's going to vote for him is Crime, I mean, Cook County.

Ah, yes, every single one of Cook County's some-5 million-odd residents is a criminal.

Ah, yes, Cook and the city who anchors it aren't crime-ridden areas.

Cook County is Crime County, regardless of who lives there and the only place in Illinois that votes for democrats at state level, that will be true in Michigan in a few years, with the democrat only winning Wayne and their living experiment of liberal failure: Detroit.

440,213 people in Cook County voted for Donald Trump.  512,164 people in Cook County voted for Mark Kirk.  To generalize a county of 5 million people is just wrong, regardless of your politics.

maga2020 is just another Trump troll echoing Trump's rhetoric about Chicago. He wants us to respond somewhere along the lines of "It's wrong to characterize cities like Chicago and Detroit as crime-ridden liberal failures." So let's just ignore him.

Anyway, back on topic. I wouldn't be surprised if Rauner pulls off a win if he makes the race all about Madigan and JB Pritzker is the nominee. When will IL Democrats learn to stop relying so much on Chicagoland, and instead make inroads in more recently-lost territory like the counties in IL-17?

Traditional statewide politics (correct me if I'm wrong, muon) has seemed to be a solidly Republican collar county caucus, a solidly Democratic Cook County caucus, a solidly Republican Northern and Centeral Illinois Downstate caucus (with exceptions in a few areas like the Quad Cities, of course) and a pretty Democratic Southern Illinois caucus (with some exceptions like the farming counties in South Central IL).  Chicago Democrats were easily the best combination of most united faction and large enough faction once everything is broken apart, and they have usually gotten their way unless the Republicans are totally united and have the seats.

With the exception of east St. Louis and Cairo that down state dem coalition has broken up. St. Louis metro is more republican and the rural areas the "Missouri" and "Kentucky" dems have begun to leave.

[UncleSam]

Likely D tbh, Illinois is too polarized to elect a Republican, even a true moderate hero like Hogan would lose here (and will probably lose the almost-as-difficult Maryland race simultaneously)

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Likely D, unless Pritzker gets the nomination (Tilt R) or Kennedy gets the nomination (Lean D).

Pritzker easily has the highest chance of losing, yet Madigan seems h**l-bent on making sure Pritzker wins.

Kennedy might just be a toss up. He's wooden on the campaign trail and has none of the charisma his family is known for.

Anyone else - lean/likely D.

[Coraxion]

Rauner will join the ranks of Lincoln, Landrieu, Pryor, and Kirk. Blanched.

[_]

The Mythical Generic D continues his/her quest in Blanching every Republican in the country.

Tilt R with Pritzker
Tossup with Kennedy
Anyone else is Lean D