1972: Humphrey vs Republican

[Mr. Smith]

S'pose Humphrey either

A) Defeats Nixon in '68 by taking California, Missouri, Illinois, and New Jersey

or B) LBJ decides to seek a second term anyway in spite of McCarthy, wins, but dies of a heart attack in office one day

Who do the GOP nominate? Who wins? Discuss with maps.

[President Johnson]

After twelve years, voters give White House control back to the Republicans who, this time, made a smart choice and nominate the man who is able to win a general election. There is also a southern ticket in that match-up, since both Humphrey and Rockefeller are unacceptable for the south, as both are pro-civil-rights.

Governor Nelson A. Rockefeller (R-NY)/Representative Gerald R. Ford (R-MI): 351 EV. (50.21%)
President Hubert H. Humphrey (D-MN)/Vice President Edmund Muskie (D-ME): 141 EV. (44.30%)
Governor Lester Maddox (A-GA)/Former Governor Donald S. Russell (A-SC): 46 EV. (5.01%)

[Kingpoleon]

314: Gerald Ford/John Lindsay - 50.3%
161: Hubert Humphrey/Stuart Symington* - 40.4%
63: Ross Barnett/Strom Thurmond - 8.1%
Others - 1.2%
*Assuming the scenario of Johnson dying; otherwise, Muskie

[Sir Mohamed]

I see three possible scenarios: First, and most likely, the GOP nominates moderate Nelson Rockefeller, who is capable to win the election by a decent margin. Second, they nominate Reagan, who's doing better than expected but still loses narrowly because he's still seen as a conservative hardliner in the tradition of Goldwater. Third, there is a deadlock between Rockefeller and Reagan at the RNC and a compromise candidate, presumably Gerald Ford, who did not run in the first place, emerges and also wins the election.

I think that any Democrat who had succeeded Johnson in 1969 or later would have been doomed for reelection in 1972. In part because four consecutive wins for one party are unlikely, and also because Vietnam would have collapsed earlier. The GOP candidate would have used this to portray Humphrey or any other incumbent Democrat as weak on the world stage.


Scenario 1: Humphrey versus Rockefeller

✓ Governor Nelson Rockefeller (R-NY)/Former Governor John Connally (R-TX): 368 EVs.; 49.3%
President Hubert Humphrey (D-MN)/Vice President Edmund Muskie (D-ME): 118 EVs.; 43.3%
Governor Lester Maddox (AI-GA)/General Curtis LeMay (AI-CA): 52 EVs.; 6.8%


Scenario 2: Humphrey versus Reagan

✓ President Hubert Humphrey (D-MN)/Vice President Edmund Muskie (D-ME): 288 EVs.; 49.1%
Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Senator John Tower (R-TX): 250 EVs.; 47.4%


Scenario 3: Humphrey versus Ford

✓ Representative Gerald Ford (R-MI)/Senator Paul Laxalt (R-NV): 303 EVs.; 49.0%
President Hubert Humphrey (D-MN)/Vice President Edmund Muskie (D-ME): 189 EVs.; 44.1%
Governor Lester Maddox (AI-GA)/General Curtis LeMay (AI-CA): 46 EVs.; 6.2%

[Don Vito Corleone]

I see three possible scenarios: First, and most likely, the GOP nominates moderate Nelson Rockefeller, who is capable to win the election by a decent margin. Second, they nominate Reagan, who's doing better than expected but still loses narrowly because he's still seen as a conservative hardliner in the tradition of Goldwater. Third, there is a deadlock between Rockefeller and Reagan at the RNC and a compromise candidate, presumably Gerald Ford, who did not run in the first place, emerges and also wins the election.

I think that any Democrat who had succeeded Johnson in 1969 or later would have been doomed for reelection in 1972. In part because four consecutive wins for one party are unlikely, and also because Vietnam would have collapsed earlier. The GOP candidate would have used this to portray Humphrey or any other incumbent Democrat as weak on the world stage.


Scenario 1: Humphrey versus Rockefeller

✓ Governor Nelson Rockefeller (R-NY)/Former Governor John Connally (R-TX): 368 EVs.; 49.3%
President Hubert Humphrey (D-MN)/Vice President Edmund Muskie (D-ME): 118 EVs.; 43.3%
Governor Lester Maddox (AI-GA)/General Curtis LeMay (AI-CA): 52 EVs.; 6.8%


Scenario 2: Humphrey versus Reagan

✓ President Hubert Humphrey (D-MN)/Vice President Edmund Muskie (D-ME): 288 EVs.; 49.1%
Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Senator John Tower (R-TX): 250 EVs.; 47.4%


Scenario 3: Humphrey versus Ford

✓ Representative Gerald Ford (R-MI)/Senator Paul Laxalt (R-NV): 303 EVs.; 49.0%
President Hubert Humphrey (D-MN)/Vice President Edmund Muskie (D-ME): 189 EVs.; 44.1%
Governor Lester Maddox (AI-GA)/General Curtis LeMay (AI-CA): 46 EVs.; 6.2%

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