CA 1984 - A subtle sign of what was to come?

[Phony Moderate]

Reagan won it easily, but his 16% margin was both lower than his national PV margin that year and lower than the margin he achieved in the state in 1980.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Reagan won California by 16.78% in 1980, and 16.24% in 1984... so his margin was basically identical. the only difference was the country as a whole swung hard towards Reagan in '84.

[RINO Tom]

Yeah, not really sure it was that important that CA was below the national average.  Remember, despite more simplified storytelling that our history books prefer, most of the South was the slowest to come around to Reagan (Carter almost won nearly every Southern state with just a final push/doing a little better in the suburban areas), and the South tends to have the wildest swings.  Dixie finally coming around in full force in 1984 was going to make a lot of solidly Republican states in the North and West look comparatively "less Republican."

[Mr. Smith]

Reagan won California by 16.78% in 1980, and 16.24% in 1984... so his margin was basically identical. the only difference was the country as a whole swung hard towards Reagan in '84.

He also LOST counties too. One of these counties was a reliable Republican stronghold, and might well have stayed that way if Ford types had stayed in power. After all, no Democrat since FDR save LBJ won this county. Many of the rich, elitist attitudes are still there in the county even now.

The next county, roughly the same thing, though it flip for Carter in '76.

But as a counter: The state was well on its way to being leftward before this point, if anything the Democrats desperate urge to keep the South cost 'em here. Frank Church or Jerry Brown would've flipped it easily in '76 where Carter failed.  Either of their coattails would've kept John Tunney for another term too.

Also, just for funsies: McGovern won more counties than Carter '80 and Mondale.

In anything Carter rolled the clock back on the inevitable.

[SingingAnalyst]

Yes, it was a harbinger of things to come.

While the Dem / Rep breakdown in CA was similar in 1984 and 1980 (it actually voted more Dem in '84, based on the percentage breakdown of the 2-party vote), the county-by-county results, of course, were not. San Francisco went from 52.4-31.9 Dem in '80 to 67.4-31.4 Dem in '84. Orange County on the other hand went from 68-23 R in '80 to 75-24 R in '84. LA County was in the middle, going from 50-40 R in '80 to 54.5-44.4 R in '84. So the results became much more unbalanced. I suspect a lot of San Francisco Republicans have left the city since then, and a lot of Republicans elsewhere in the state have simply left the state.

[SingingAnalyst]

Yeah, not really sure it was that important that CA was below the national average.  Remember, despite more simplified storytelling that our history books prefer, most of the South was the slowest to come around to Reagan (Carter almost won nearly every Southern state with just a final push/doing a little better in the suburban areas), and the South tends to have the wildest swings.  Dixie finally coming around in full force in 1984 was going to make a lot of solidly Republican states in the North and West look comparatively "less Republican."

The sheer number of narrow victories Reagan won in the South in 1980 remains, I think, one of the most remarkable electoral facts of my lifetime. I think Carter won the combined PV's of MA, RI, DE, MD, DC, WV, KY, TN, NC, SC, GA, AL, MS, AR, and LA, but of course Reagan won far more EV's from these states.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Reagan won California by 16.78% in 1980, and 16.24% in 1984... so his margin was basically identical. the only difference was the country as a whole swung hard towards Reagan in '84.

He also LOST counties too. One of these counties was a reliable Republican stronghold, and might well have stayed that way if Ford types had stayed in power. After all, no Democrat since FDR save LBJ won this county. Many of the rich, elitist attitudes are still there in the county even now.

The next county, roughly the same thing, though it flip for Carter in '76.

But as a counter: The state was well on its way to being leftward before this point, if anything the Democrats desperate urge to keep the South cost 'em here. Frank Church or Jerry Brown would've flipped it easily in '76 where Carter failed.  Either of their coattails would've kept John Tunney for another term too.

Also, just for funsies: McGovern won more counties than Carter '80 and Mondale.

In anything Carter rolled the clock back on the inevitable.

Without John Anderson in 1980, Reagan probably would have lost the counties that flipped in '84. I suspect he took a lot of liberal Republicans who otherwise may have voted for Carter, especially in the Bay Area.

[jaichind]

I would argue that CA was beginning to be lost to to GOP in the late 1950s.  Since 1958 the Dems have lead in the Congressional Delegation and have mostly controlled both State Legislatures.  Any GOP advantage in these three areas since 1960 have been ties or by almost ties and were fleeting.  It was really Reagon that carried the GOP since the the 1960s and once he passed on from the scene the natural Dem advantage asserted itself.

[NOVA Green]

Reagan won California by 16.78% in 1980, and 16.24% in 1984... so his margin was basically identical. the only difference was the country as a whole swung hard towards Reagan in '84.

He also LOST counties too. One of these counties was a reliable Republican stronghold, and might well have stayed that way if Ford types had stayed in power. After all, no Democrat since FDR save LBJ won this county. Many of the rich, elitist attitudes are still there in the county even now.

The next county, roughly the same thing, though it flip for Carter in '76.

But as a counter: The state was well on its way to being leftward before this point, if anything the Democrats desperate urge to keep the South cost 'em here. Frank Church or Jerry Brown would've flipped it easily in '76 where Carter failed.  Either of their coattails would've kept John Tunney for another term too.

Also, just for funsies: McGovern won more counties than Carter '80 and Mondale.

In anything Carter rolled the clock back on the inevitable.

Without John Anderson in 1980, Reagan probably would have lost the counties that flipped in '84. I suspect he took a lot of liberal Republicans who otherwise may have voted for Carter, especially in the Bay Area.

Thank You TexArkana----

Was just going to make the same point, but that's why I try to scroll down to the bottom of the thread before posting....

To put it simply John Anderson was extremely popular in most of the West Coast in the '80 Presidential Election, and his supporters came from both disaffected Cater '76 Democrats, as well as Liberal and Moderate Republicans dismayed at the direction their Party had shifted with Reagan at the helm.

This was actually the first election that I remember as a young boy in small-town Oregon at the time....

I would argue that Anderson's performance in Oregon and Washington in '80 presaged the permanent flipping of Oregon and Washington at a Presidential level, even more so than California....

Now, if we look solely at the '84 Presidential Election results, it's even clearer how the Pacific Northwest was slipping away from Republican Presidential dominance.

California was much more of a wild-card, but still clear that some of the Anglo older voters with fond memories of Ronald Reagan as Governor during the turbulent '60s, were starting to be replaced by a slightly different demographic.

If anything, I believe that the '88 Presidential results from CA were actually a bigger sign of what was to later befall Republicans in California....

You start to see the Bay Area solidify as a heavily Democratic region, even in the rapidly growing areas of South Bay, as well as stronger margins in the flat-lands of East Bay, and even out into the hill communities of the outer-ring of the Bay Area, where Democrats used to be completely decimated (Walnut Creek type areas)....

SoCal took a bit longer to come around, but LA County used to be pretty competitive back in the days, so even small shifts in the margins had dramatic impact in Statewide margins....

'88 was when California Republicans should have started flipping out, instead of going into the crazy Anti-Latino bigotry, doubling down on social conservative policies, and moved more into a Moderate style of California Republicanism with a Big old Circus tent with a pretty cool huge elephant in the Middle of the Room...