Clinton Republicans in 2018

[Mr. Smith]

The only 2 left on that voted No on that.

[ltomlinson31]

Lmao

I don't get why I voted for quite a few of these, especially Paulsen, McSally and Lance. Also should have seen a few of the others coming who had never had a competitive election in a while/ever (like Culberson and Sessions).

[IceSpear]

LOL at the idea of Rohrabacher going down. Look I know he says crazy sh!t, but he's been saying crazy sh!t for decades and this district keeps reelecting him. I've lived my whole life in the city that carries him to victory every year (Huntington Beach) and people here haven't budged much.

LOL at the idea of Rohrabacher going down. Look I know he says crazy sh!t, but he's been saying crazy sh!t for decades and this district keeps reelecting him. I've lived my whole life in the city that carries him to victory every year (Huntington Beach) and people here haven't budged much.

People said the same thing about Gene Taylor's and Ike Skelton's even more impressive electoral credentials. And like half of the 2006 Republican incumbents that ended up going down.

But Mississippi and Missouri aren't really comparable to Orange County, California. I didn't say anything about Rohrabacher's electoral credentials; I wouldn't even argue he's particularly electable haha. My point is that Democrats circlejerking themselves over the prospect of upscale educated republicans flocking to them en masse to make up for a 17 point deficit (which is how much he won by in 2016) are either ignorant on the voters who live here. These voters are particularly stubborn because the higher taxes in California and singular Democratic Party control over the entire state basically keep them voting for the Republican Party in protest.

Rohrabacher will not go down unless the Democrats win nationally by 13+ points or some absurd margin. These voters are no less racist or beholden to stupid partisan thinking than your average Joe in rural Arkansas. Don't let the fancy college degrees or income statistics fool you; just look at what a Rohrabacher has said over the decades and keep in mind that that's the guy CA-48 looked at and said "Right on, I'm voting for him!" and have done so for nearly 30 straight years now. And Russia isn't gonna convince them otherwise; Rohrabacher has been pro-Russia for decades and they still didn't give a sh!t.

There's no substantive reason to think he'll lose his seat in 2018 beyond either poor analysis of the district or anecdotal past examples from former congressmen in other states. Unless of course you're predicting a huge Democratic wave; in which case he will likely fall in that event.

Look Rohrabacher is a dumb man and I'm ashamed he's my congressmen, so I would love nothing more than to be proven wrong (especially if he falls in a midterm that isn't a huge Dem wave) and see this district vote for a Democrat to replace him. But I just don't see these voters shifting in any considerable way to even bother getting my hopes up. I say this as a lifelong resident of this district as well.

Another big advantage Rohrabacher has that Karen Handel didn't have (minus the obvious: incumbency) is that GA-06's minority population was half African American, whereas CA-48 is almost exclusively Hispanic and Asian. Asian voters are far more likely to vote GOP in midterm years relative to African Americans (Asians broke 50-48 for the GOP in 2014) and Rohrabacher has made strong inroads with the Vietnamese community in his district.

Now if Hispanics turnout in large enough numbers in the district then that could make things interesting though one data point (2016) isn't enough to establish a trend or to expect them to mobilize to unseat Rohrabacher. I'm not hearing anything on the ground or serious signs about taking Rohrabacher out which is disconcerting.

Let's all remember that while California is a very Democratic state it's still a state with almost 40 million people innit, and millions of those people are republicans who still reside in the suburbs. Rohrabacher and Walters are not as vulnerable as some would hope they are.

Man did none of this age well...

PNM's post did!

And damn Timmy, this line was even worse than me rating WV-03 lean R, LOL:

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[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

My point is that Democrats circlejerking themselves over the prospect of upscale educated republicans flocking to them en masse to make up for a 17 point deficit (which is how much he won by in 2016) are either ignorant on the voters who live here.

that's why I love this forum so much: You learn new words every day.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I love how Timmy went all the way from "lol dems will never win suburbz" to becoming a poor man's IceSpear.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I love how Timmy went all the way from "lol dems will never win suburbz" to becoming a poor man's IceSpear.

You will learn to love it alright.

[The Mikado]

RIP Unbeatable Titans Pete Sessions and John Culberson.

How did atlas get the idea two people who never ran a competetive race were Unbeatable titans. Especially Culberson .

Sessions absolutely ran a competitive race before, back in 2004 when he was redistricted into the same district Martin Frost was in. That was one hell of a campaign.

Of course, it was 14 years ago, and Sessions was rusty as hell this year.