Clinton Republicans in 2018

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Clinton won 23 congressional districts in 2016 that are now represented by Republicans in the House.



Only nine of those members decided to buck their party and vote against the American Health Care Act, the Republican-backed repeal of President Barack Obama's signature health care achievement.

14 Republican "yes" votes from Clinton-won districts:     John Culberson (TX-7)     Carlos Curbelo (FL-26)     Jeff Denham (CA-10)     Darrell Issa (CA-49)     Steve Knight (CA-25)     Martha McSally (AZ-2)     Erik Paulsen (MN-7)     Dana Rohrabacher (CA-48)     Peter Roskam (IL-6)     Ed Royce (CA-39)     Pete Sessions (TX-32)     David Valdadao (CA-21)     Mimi Walters (CA-45)     Kevin Yoder (KS-3)

9 Republican "no" votes from Clinton-won districts:     Mike Coffman (CO-6)     Barbara Comstock (VA-10)     Ryan Costello (PA-6)     Will Hurd (TX-23)     John Katko (NY-24)     Leonard Lance (NJ-7)     Pat Meehan (PA-7)     Dave Reichert (WA-8)     Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27)

Which House Republicans will win reelection next year?
Names sorted by Clinton strength of their district.
The superscript shows which representatives voted for the repeal of Obamacare.

[MarkD]

Ros-Lehtinen is retiring anyway; it's easy to predict that her district will elect a Democrat.
The only particularly vulnerable Republicans who I feel are likely going to lose are Issa and Kratkoo. I would rank all of the rest of them as being Lean R or better.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Ros-Lehtinen is retiring anyway.

Wäh! I hate it that you can't edit polls. ☹️

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Ros-Lehtinen is retiring anyway; it's easy to predict that her district will elect a Democrat.

Why is she so popular anyway? She won Clinton best Republican district quite handily.

[MarkD]

Ros-Lehtinen is retiring anyway; it's easy to predict that her district will elect a Democrat.

Why is she so popular anyway? She won Clinton best Republican district quite handily.

Her moderate voting record and her continued opposition to the Castro regime have had a lot to do with it.

[This is Eharding, guys]

Voted Paulsen, Lance, Roskam, Walters, Reichert, Sessions, Rohrabacher, Culberson. House is lean D at this point.

[Nyvin]

Why isn't there a "none of them" option?

[Technocracy Timmy]

LOL at the idea of Rohrabacher going down. Look I know he says crazy sh!t, but he's been saying crazy sh!t for decades and this district keeps reelecting him. I've lived my whole life in the city that carries him to victory every year (Huntington Beach) and people here haven't budged much.

[_]

I think Issa can pull out another victory, but its definitely tossup.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I think Issa can pull out another victory, but its definitely tossup.

Really? No! Issa had the lowest win margin of all 23 Republicans. 0.5%!!!
And he has to face his electorate in a GOP-hostile mid-term election in a deep-blue state.
And he'll have to explain to his (!!!) Clinton voters why he voted for the repeal of Obama care.
No way! Likely D!

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

LOL at the idea of Rohrabacher going down. Look I know he says crazy sh!t, but he's been saying crazy sh!t for decades and this district keeps reelecting him. I've lived my whole life in the city that carries him to victory every year (Huntington Beach) and people here haven't budged much.

Wait? He's a man? 😲
The last time I was shocked by an American politician's gender was when I found out that Jan Brewer is a woman...

[Technocracy Timmy]

LOL at the idea of Rohrabacher going down. Look I know he says crazy sh!t, but he's been saying crazy sh!t for decades and this district keeps reelecting him. I've lived my whole life in the city that carries him to victory every year (Huntington Beach) and people here haven't budged much.

People said the same thing about Gene Taylor's and Ike Skelton's even more impressive electoral credentials. And like half of the 2006 Republican incumbents that ended up going down.

But Mississippi and Missouri aren't really comparable to Orange County, California. I didn't say anything about Rohrabacher's electoral credentials; I wouldn't even argue he's particularly electable haha. My point is that Democrats circlejerking themselves over the prospect of upscale educated republicans flocking to them en masse to make up for a 17 point deficit (which is how much he won by in 2016) are either ignorant on the voters who live here. These voters are particularly stubborn because the higher taxes in California and singular Democratic Party control over the entire state basically keep them voting for the Republican Party in protest.

Rohrabacher will not go down unless the Democrats win nationally by 13+ points or some absurd margin. These voters are no less racist or beholden to stupid partisan thinking than your average Joe in rural Arkansas. Don't let the fancy college degrees or income statistics fool you; just look at what a Rohrabacher has said over the decades and keep in mind that that's the guy CA-48 looked at and said "Right on, I'm voting for him!" and have done so for nearly 30 straight years now. And Russia isn't gonna convince them otherwise; Rohrabacher has been pro-Russia for decades and they still didn't give a sh!t.

There's no substantive reason to think he'll lose his seat in 2018 beyond either poor analysis of the district or anecdotal past examples from former congressmen in other states. Unless of course you're predicting a huge Democratic wave; in which case he will likely fall in that event.

Look Rohrabacher is a dumb man and I'm ashamed he's my congressmen, so I would love nothing more than to be proven wrong (especially if he falls in a midterm that isn't a huge Dem wave) and see this district vote for a Democrat to replace him. But I just don't see these voters shifting in any considerable way to even bother getting my hopes up. I say this as a lifelong resident of this district as well.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think only Comstock and Issa will lose, and Lehtinen's seat flips hard after her retirement.

[Kamala]

I think you all are being a bit bearish on Dems' chances in the CA seats, especially since there's a very good chance that both Senate and Gov will be a Dem vs Dem, really dropping Republican turnout. I think only really Rohrabacher and Walters are Likely R or Safe.

[Xing]

Reichert will be fine, and some other entrenched Republicans like Sessions will most likely win. Most of these races will depend on the national environment, though, and the only seats here I'm pretty confident will flip are CA-49, FL-27, TX-23, and VA-10.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Another big advantage Rohrabacher has that Karen Handel didn't have (minus the obvious: incumbency) is that GA-06's minority population was half African American, whereas CA-48 is almost exclusively Hispanic and Asian. Asian voters are far more likely to vote GOP in midterm years relative to African Americans (Asians broke 50-48 for the GOP in 2014) and Rohrabacher has made strong inroads with the Vietnamese community in his district.

Now if Hispanics turnout in large enough numbers in the district then that could make things interesting though one data point (2016) isn't enough to establish a trend or to expect them to mobilize to unseat Rohrabacher. I'm not hearing anything on the ground or serious signs about taking Rohrabacher out which is disconcerting.

Let's all remember that while California is a very Democratic state it's still a state with almost 40 million people innit, and millions of those people are republicans who still reside in the suburbs. Rohrabacher and Walters are not as vulnerable as some would hope they are.

[Kingpoleon]

LOL at the idea of Rohrabacher going down. Look I know he says crazy sh!t, but he's been saying crazy sh!t for decades and this district keeps reelecting him. I've lived my whole life in the city that carries him to victory every year (Huntington Beach) and people here haven't budged much.

Wait? He's a man? 😲

I was shocked when I found out, too. I didn't find out until I stumbled across his Wikipedia page.

[BuckeyeNut]

Dana is a unisex name, and no woman in the House is that conservative...

I'm uncomfortable saying anyone other than Issa and Comstock are most likely going down. Democrats should definitely pick up Ros-Lehtinen's seat, though.

[Jeppe]

Another big advantage Rohrabacher has that Karen Handel didn't have (minus the obvious: incumbency) is that GA-06's minority population was half African American, whereas CA-48 is almost exclusively Hispanic and Asian. Asian voters are far more likely to vote GOP in midterm years relative to African Americans (Asians broke 50-48 for the GOP in 2014) and Rohrabacher has made strong inroads with the Vietnamese community in his district.

Now if Hispanics turnout in large enough numbers in the district then that could make things interesting though one data point (2016) isn't enough to establish a trend or to expect them to mobilize to unseat Rohrabacher. I'm not hearing anything on the ground or serious signs about taking Rohrabacher out which is disconcerting.

Let's all remember that while California is a very Democratic state it's still a state with almost 40 million people innit, and millions of those people are republicans who still reside in the suburbs. Rohrabacher and Walters are not as vulnerable as some would hope they are.

Trump seems pretty unpopular with the Vietnamese-American community, probably one of the reasons Orange county swung so hard against him. I guess we'll see if they still vote GOP downballot in 2018.

[JoshPA]

I doubt it Keep in mind some republicans running for reelection in the senate and running for senate who withdraw support from trump lost. Joe heck and that nh senater who name i forgot are examples.

[Atlas Force]

LOL at the idea of Rohrabacher going down. Look I know he says crazy sh!t, but he's been saying crazy sh!t for decades and this district keeps reelecting him. I've lived my whole life in the city that carries him to victory every year (Huntington Beach) and people here haven't budged much.

LOL at the idea of Rohrabacher going down. Look I know he says crazy sh!t, but he's been saying crazy sh!t for decades and this district keeps reelecting him. I've lived my whole life in the city that carries him to victory every year (Huntington Beach) and people here haven't budged much.

People said the same thing about Gene Taylor's and Ike Skelton's even more impressive electoral credentials. And like half of the 2006 Republican incumbents that ended up going down.

But Mississippi and Missouri aren't really comparable to Orange County, California. I didn't say anything about Rohrabacher's electoral credentials; I wouldn't even argue he's particularly electable haha. My point is that Democrats circlejerking themselves over the prospect of upscale educated republicans flocking to them en masse to make up for a 17 point deficit (which is how much he won by in 2016) are either ignorant on the voters who live here. These voters are particularly stubborn because the higher taxes in California and singular Democratic Party control over the entire state basically keep them voting for the Republican Party in protest.

Rohrabacher will not go down unless the Democrats win nationally by 13+ points or some absurd margin. These voters are no less racist or beholden to stupid partisan thinking than your average Joe in rural Arkansas. Don't let the fancy college degrees or income statistics fool you; just look at what a Rohrabacher has said over the decades and keep in mind that that's the guy CA-48 looked at and said "Right on, I'm voting for him!" and have done so for nearly 30 straight years now. And Russia isn't gonna convince them otherwise; Rohrabacher has been pro-Russia for decades and they still didn't give a sh!t.

There's no substantive reason to think he'll lose his seat in 2018 beyond either poor analysis of the district or anecdotal past examples from former congressmen in other states. Unless of course you're predicting a huge Democratic wave; in which case he will likely fall in that event.

Look Rohrabacher is a dumb man and I'm ashamed he's my congressmen, so I would love nothing more than to be proven wrong (especially if he falls in a midterm that isn't a huge Dem wave) and see this district vote for a Democrat to replace him. But I just don't see these voters shifting in any considerable way to even bother getting my hopes up. I say this as a lifelong resident of this district as well.

Another big advantage Rohrabacher has that Karen Handel didn't have (minus the obvious: incumbency) is that GA-06's minority population was half African American, whereas CA-48 is almost exclusively Hispanic and Asian. Asian voters are far more likely to vote GOP in midterm years relative to African Americans (Asians broke 50-48 for the GOP in 2014) and Rohrabacher has made strong inroads with the Vietnamese community in his district.

Now if Hispanics turnout in large enough numbers in the district then that could make things interesting though one data point (2016) isn't enough to establish a trend or to expect them to mobilize to unseat Rohrabacher. I'm not hearing anything on the ground or serious signs about taking Rohrabacher out which is disconcerting.

Let's all remember that while California is a very Democratic state it's still a state with almost 40 million people innit, and millions of those people are republicans who still reside in the suburbs. Rohrabacher and Walters are not as vulnerable as some would hope they are.

Man did none of this age well...

[Technocracy Timmy]

Lmao

Oh poor young me. Thankfully I’ve seen the light.

[Landslide Lyndon]

RIP Unbeatable Titans Pete Sessions and John Culberson.

[lfromnj]

RIP Unbeatable Titans Pete Sessions and John Culberson.

How did atlas get the idea two people who never ran a competetive race were Unbeatable titans. Especially Culberson .

[AudmanOut]

RIP Unbeatable Titans Pete Sessions and John Culberson.

How did atlas get the idea two people who never ran a competetive race were Unbeatable titans. Especially Culberson .

Because of the #everyelectionwillbelike2016 people