WI Senate 2018 - "Quietly Becoming the Top Senate Race of 2018"

[Mike Thick]

I mean, they wouldn't outright say that, but I think it's entirely possible that a Republican group dog-whistles it (i.e. implying in an ad that Baldwin hates men in some way, or that she's angry/rude/unpleasant).

[mcmikk]

I mean, they wouldn't outright say that, but I think it's entirely possible that a Republican group dog-whistles it (i.e. implying in an ad that Baldwin hates men in some way, or that she's angry/rude/unpleasant).

This.

Or, you could take the "Restore American Freedom and Liberty" route and say that she is a leftist lesbian pervert who wants 5 year olds to learn about gay sex.

[TheSaint250]

I mean, they wouldn't outright say that, but I think it's entirely possible that a Republican group dog-whistles it (i.e. implying in an ad that Baldwin hates men in some way, or that she's angry/rude/unpleasant).

No.

[DrScholl]

I've been thinking about it, and, do you think attacking Baldwin for being a lesbian would be a good strategy for the GOP? We all saw last year how deplorables in Wisconsin react very positively to all sorts of bigotry.

Literally everything in that is wrong.

Why would you even think of suggesting that as a strategy?  Any candidate who does that deserves to be dropped as nominee or forced to drop out of a race if the candidate is not the nominee.

Isn't the whole idea is that the Midwest hates so-called identity politics and that Baldwin is the type that represents identity politics at it's worst?

[mcmikk]

I've been thinking about it, and, do you think attacking Baldwin for being a lesbian would be a good strategy for the GOP? We all saw last year how deplorables in Wisconsin react very positively to all sorts of bigotry.

Literally everything in that is wrong.

Why would you even think of suggesting that as a strategy?  Any candidate who does that deserves to be dropped as nominee or forced to drop out of a race if the candidate is not the nominee.

Isn't the whole idea is that the Midwest hates so-called identity politics and that Baldwin is the type that represents identity politics at it's worst?

"But I didn't run to make history. I ran to make a difference! A difference in the lives of families struggling to find work and pay their bills. A difference in the lives of students worried about debt. And seniors worried about their retirement security. A difference in the lives of veterans who fought for us and need someone fighting for them and their families. A difference in the lives of entrepreneurs trying to build a business and working people trying to build some economic security."

-Baldwin acceptance speech, 2012

If this is at all indicative of anything, I doubt she will make any issue of her identity or identity politics as a whole like Hillary Clinton did. I don't think she necessarily represents identity politics by sole virtue of her being a gay woman. She's going to run as a progressive populist and a champion for the middle class and the working class. I think some Republicans will pretend that she's running on identity politics, but I doubt she actually will

[TheSaint250]

^ I agree with that: some will say it's about identity politics. She won't use it (hopefully) and if republicans do that that will be a new low and a guaranteed loss. That's why it won't happen

[DrScholl]

I've been thinking about it, and, do you think attacking Baldwin for being a lesbian would be a good strategy for the GOP? We all saw last year how deplorables in Wisconsin react very positively to all sorts of bigotry.

Literally everything in that is wrong.

Why would you even think of suggesting that as a strategy?  Any candidate who does that deserves to be dropped as nominee or forced to drop out of a race if the candidate is not the nominee.

Isn't the whole idea is that the Midwest hates so-called identity politics and that Baldwin is the type that represents identity politics at it's worst?

"But I didn't run to make history. I ran to make a difference! A difference in the lives of families struggling to find work and pay their bills. A difference in the lives of students worried about debt. And seniors worried about their retirement security. A difference in the lives of veterans who fought for us and need someone fighting for them and their families. A difference in the lives of entrepreneurs trying to build a business and working people trying to build some economic security."

-Baldwin acceptance speech, 2012

If this is at all indicative of anything, I doubt she will make any issue of her identity or identity politics as a whole like Hillary Clinton did. I don't think she necessarily represents identity politics by sole virtue of her being a gay woman. She's going to run as a progressive populist and a champion for the middle class and the working class. I think some Republicans will pretend that she's running on identity politics, but I doubt she actually will

From my understanding, being anything but straight and a male represents identity politics and is a negative for Democrats, but whatever. The messaging on so-called identity politics changes all the time.

[mcmikk]

I've been thinking about it, and, do you think attacking Baldwin for being a lesbian would be a good strategy for the GOP? We all saw last year how deplorables in Wisconsin react very positively to all sorts of bigotry.

Literally everything in that is wrong.

Why would you even think of suggesting that as a strategy?  Any candidate who does that deserves to be dropped as nominee or forced to drop out of a race if the candidate is not the nominee.

Isn't the whole idea is that the Midwest hates so-called identity politics and that Baldwin is the type that represents identity politics at it's worst?

"But I didn't run to make history. I ran to make a difference! A difference in the lives of families struggling to find work and pay their bills. A difference in the lives of students worried about debt. And seniors worried about their retirement security. A difference in the lives of veterans who fought for us and need someone fighting for them and their families. A difference in the lives of entrepreneurs trying to build a business and working people trying to build some economic security."

-Baldwin acceptance speech, 2012

If this is at all indicative of anything, I doubt she will make any issue of her identity or identity politics as a whole like Hillary Clinton did. I don't think she necessarily represents identity politics by sole virtue of her being a gay woman. She's going to run as a progressive populist and a champion for the middle class and the working class. I think some Republicans will pretend that she's running on identity politics, but I doubt she actually will

From my understanding, being anything but straight and a male represents identity politics and is a negative for Democrats, but whatever. The messaging on so-called identity politics changes all the time.

I'm thinking there will be a lot of discussion and vitriol at Baldwin and "identity politics" on Internet forums and at the grassroots level, but at the actual campaign level I don't think there will be much argument about it in this race, if any.

[mcmikk]

Former UN Ambassador John Bolton has thrown his support behind Kevin Nicholson.

I personally don't know too much about Bolton. Will his endorsement have any impact on the race in the primary/general election or on Nicholson's credibility? Does it really matter this early on in the 2018 election cycle and with no other Republicans currently running?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lean D minimum. Outparty senators are notoriously difficult to take out in midterms and there are several Democratic senators more vulnerable than her. In a midterm under a Democratic White House she would be far more vulnerable.

How would Glenn Grothman do against Baldwin. Would he lose because he's too extreme?

He's also kind of a weirdo...

How so, exactly?

Never married, physically unattractive. Liberal talk radio here makes plenty of below-the-belt jokes about him being a neckbeard living in his mom's basement (he does not, AFAIK).

Grothman's also a huge misogynist who was apparently born with his foot in his mouth IIRC.

[Virginiá]

Profile on Nicholson:

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/09/22/kevin-nicholson-wisconsin-republican-senate-2018-former-democrat-215631

very long!

[Young Conservative]

Former UN Ambassador John Bolton has thrown his support behind Kevin Nicholson.

I personally don't know too much about Bolton. Will his endorsement have any impact on the race in the primary/general election or on Nicholson's credibility? Does it really matter this early on in the 2018 election cycle and with no other Republicans currently running?

His PAC and support brings a lot of Neocon money.

[Heisenberg]

Former UN Ambassador John Bolton has thrown his support behind Kevin Nicholson.

I personally don't know too much about Bolton. Will his endorsement have any impact on the race in the primary/general election or on Nicholson's credibility? Does it really matter this early on in the 2018 election cycle and with no other Republicans currently running?

His PAC and support brings a lot of Neocon money.

He's also had connections to hawkish foreign policy teams for some time as well, IIRC. Don't think that plays well in WI AT ALL, especially in the crucial WI-03 and WI-07.

Hoping Hovde jumps in, I'll back him.

[SATW]

Former UN Ambassador John Bolton has thrown his support behind Kevin Nicholson.

I personally don't know too much about Bolton. Will his endorsement have any impact on the race in the primary/general election or on Nicholson's credibility? Does it really matter this early on in the 2018 election cycle and with no other Republicans currently running?

idk how i missed this, but i am a supporter now.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I've been thinking about it, and, do you think attacking Baldwin for being a lesbian would be a good strategy for the GOP? We all saw last year how deplorables in Wisconsin react very positively to all sorts of bigotry.

Literally everything in that is wrong.

Why would you even think of suggesting that as a strategy?  Any candidate who does that deserves to be dropped as nominee or forced to drop out of a race if the candidate is not the nominee.

Isn't the whole idea is that the Midwest hates so-called identity politics and that Baldwin is the type that represents identity politics at it's worst?

"But I didn't run to make history. I ran to make a difference! A difference in the lives of families struggling to find work and pay their bills. A difference in the lives of students worried about debt. And seniors worried about their retirement security. A difference in the lives of veterans who fought for us and need someone fighting for them and their families. A difference in the lives of entrepreneurs trying to build a business and working people trying to build some economic security."

-Baldwin acceptance speech, 2012

If this is at all indicative of anything, I doubt she will make any issue of her identity or identity politics as a whole like Hillary Clinton did. I don't think she necessarily represents identity politics by sole virtue of her being a gay woman. She's going to run as a progressive populist and a champion for the middle class and the working class. I think some Republicans will pretend that she's running on identity politics, but I doubt she actually will

No, she won't, you're right, but voters tend to vote more for/against parties now, so if her party makes identity politics a big issue, it will hurt her standing. Not that this means she isn't favored by any means.

[publicunofficial]

Former UN Ambassador John Bolton has thrown his support behind Kevin Nicholson.

I personally don't know too much about Bolton. Will his endorsement have any impact on the race in the primary/general election or on Nicholson's credibility? Does it really matter this early on in the 2018 election cycle and with no other Republicans currently running?

idk how i missed this, but i am a supporter now.

Gotta get the "War Crimes Aficionado" segment of the GOP primary vote locked up.

[RogueBeaver]

Duffy's reconsidering.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Former UN Ambassador John Bolton has thrown his support behind Kevin Nicholson.

I personally don't know too much about Bolton. Will his endorsement have any impact on the race in the primary/general election or on Nicholson's credibility? Does it really matter this early on in the 2018 election cycle and with no other Republicans currently running?

His PAC and support brings a lot of Neocon money.

He's also had connections to hawkish foreign policy teams for some time as well, IIRC. Don't think that plays well in WI AT ALL, especially in the crucial WI-03 and WI-07.

Hoping Hovde jumps in, I'll back him.

It doesn't and I suspect that's a big part of the reason why it swung so hard in both 2008 and 2016, as well as why there were five Trump-Feingold counties in rural WI, even as Feingold ran behind Clinton.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Former UN Ambassador John Bolton has thrown his support behind Kevin Nicholson.

I personally don't know too much about Bolton. Will his endorsement have any impact on the race in the primary/general election or on Nicholson's credibility? Does it really matter this early on in the 2018 election cycle and with no other Republicans currently running?

His PAC and support brings a lot of Neocon money.

He's also had connections to hawkish foreign policy teams for some time as well, IIRC. Don't think that plays well in WI AT ALL, especially in the crucial WI-03 and WI-07.

Hoping Hovde jumps in, I'll back him.

It doesn't and I suspect that's a big part of the reason why it swung so hard in both 2008 and 2016, as well as why there were five Trump-Feingold counties in rural WI, even as Feingold ran behind Clinton.

Obama also won by nearly 20 points in 08 over HRC. Feingold crushed his opponent in 04, even before the crest of anti-Iraq war sentiment. There may be something to the idea that a more dovish policy plays better in the upper Midwest than in other parts of the country, based on the limited sample size we're looking at.

[Indy Texas]

Former UN Ambassador John Bolton has thrown his support behind Kevin Nicholson.

I personally don't know too much about Bolton. Will his endorsement have any impact on the race in the primary/general election or on Nicholson's credibility? Does it really matter this early on in the 2018 election cycle and with no other Republicans currently running?

His PAC and support brings a lot of Neocon money.

He's also had connections to hawkish foreign policy teams for some time as well, IIRC. Don't think that plays well in WI AT ALL, especially in the crucial WI-03 and WI-07.

Hoping Hovde jumps in, I'll back him.

It doesn't and I suspect that's a big part of the reason why it swung so hard in both 2008 and 2016, as well as why there were five Trump-Feingold counties in rural WI, even as Feingold ran behind Clinton.

Obama also won by nearly 20 points in 08 over HRC. Feingold crushed his opponent in 04, even before the crest of anti-Iraq war sentiment. There may be something to the idea that a more dovish policy plays better in the upper Midwest than in other parts of the country, based on the limited sample size we're looking at.

George McGovern's performance in 1972 seems to back that up.

[krazen1211]

Duffy senses an opportunity to move from the House to the Senate. I believe many voters of Wisconsin do not support having a lesbian Senator.

[Brittain33]

Trolling and replies to trolling deleted. --Mod.

[mvd10]

Duffy senses an opportunity to move from the House to the Senate. I believe many voters of Wisconsin do not support having a lesbian Senator.

why

[Holmes]

You'll delete the replies to the trolling but not the trolling itself?

[Heisenberg]

Duffy senses an opportunity to move from the House to the Senate. I believe many voters of Wisconsin do not support having a lesbian Senator.

why

He didn't write that. It says "Last Edit: Today at 11:59:52 am by Brittain33 " at the bottom, meaning he edited the post, and deleted posts that quoted the original post. The original post said "Senator with San Francisco values" or something. I don't think it was a reference to sexuality, he was likely referring to the fact that she's very liberal across the board, both socially and fiscally.

Anyway, back on topic (on Wisconsin's political tendencies regarding foreign policy).
2004 Senate:

Very clear west-east divide (with the Green Bay area and southeast corners also backing Feingold).

Question: Why did Obama do much better in rural Wisconsin in 2008 than he did in rural Michigan and Minnesota? Look at these:

Obama really swept almost the entire state, just about every rural county went for him.
Compare to:


Both of those (especially Minnesota) have large blobs of rural Republican territory. Does any really know why that's the case?