WI Senate 2018 - "Quietly Becoming the Top Senate Race of 2018"

[mcmikk]

Personally, I'd say the race is between Toss-Up and Lean D, depending on who runs. Baldwin will probably have the advantage in the political environment, but she doesn't seem to be particularly well-known. No Republicans seem to be too interested in stepping up to the plate.

I'd say Baldwin is favored, and she shouldn't take anything for granted regardless, but if a strong Republican runs this could become a real barn-burner.

[UncleSam]

Definitely lean D without any strong challengers. WI is a state where things could go south for her but there's no reason to think she will draw huge focus either. She's no where near Likely of course but she's favored and if no strong challengers step up she will become a heavy favorite.

Hovde could make this tossup if he wins the primary and is a good campaigner; indeed he has the potential to make this lean R potentially. He also has the potential to lose the primary badly or make it Likely D and Baldwin will be a Leans favorite minimum against anyone else I've heard of thus far.

[Kingpoleon]

Lean/Likely D.

Incumbents in Wisconsin are basically invincible.

[Jeppe]

Somewhere between Lean and Likely D. She's probably more likely to win in a 15-20 point rout than to actually lose.

[PAK Man]

Lean D, slowly moving to Likely D. Nobody seems eager to challenge her.

[Wiz in Wis]

Likely D, baring some unforeseen scandal. The Trump backlash will pad her margin and has already driven Duffy, her worst potential foe, out of the race.

[MarkD]

I'm rating this as Likely D - and perhaps even close to Safe D - until she gets a big-name challenger.

[Coraxion]

Incumbents in Wisconsin are basically invincible.

What?

There is some truth in that. The only incumbent Senator to lose in the last 30 years or so was Feingold, and that was in a huge GOP year.

[mcmikk]

Lean/Likely D.

Incumbents in Wisconsin are basically invincible.

I raise you Nelson, Kasten, Feingold, and the guy Tommy Thompson unseated.

[_]

Tossup to Tilt D
If Fitzgerald, Vukmir, or Hovde run it should be tossup, anyone else Tilt D

[mvd10]

Tilt D to lean D. I think Baldwin would have lost if Clinton won though, but just like Brown and some of the red state Dems she will be saved by Trump.

[Xing]

Lean to Likely D, closer to Lean D if Hovde is her opponent. As counterintuitive as it seems, I would bet there will be a decent amount of Baldwin/Walker voters.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Likely D since the Republicans don't even have a credible challenger yet and 2018 looks like it'll be a Democratic wave at this point.  If Republicans can pull a rabbit out of their hat and dig up an A-list candidate that no one's been talking about and independent polls start showing a close race after the Republican field has developed a bit, then I might consider moving it to the lower end of lean D.  Until then though, there's really no reason to think this race will be particularly competitive.  I'm not even convinced Duffy could've made this anything more than lean D, tbh.

Tossup to Tilt D
If Fitzgerald, Vukmir, or Hovde run it should be tossup, anyone else Tilt D

Those are all mid-to-weak B-list candidates at best.  I'm not convinced any of them could've made this race lean D, much less tossup.

[windjammer]

Likely D since the Republicans don't even have a credible challenger yet and 2018 looks like it'll be a Democratic wave at this point.  If Republicans can pull a rabbit out of their hat and dig up an A-list candidate that no one's been talking about and independent polls start showing a close race after the Republican field has developed a bit, then I might consider moving it to the lower end of lean D.  Until then though, there's really no reason to think this race will be particularly competitive.  I'm not even convinced Duffy could've made this anything more than lean D, tbh.

Duffy has always seemed to be a paper tiger to me tbh.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Likely D since the Republicans don't even have a credible challenger yet and 2018 looks like it'll be a Democratic wave at this point.  If Republicans can pull a rabbit out of their hat and dig up an A-list candidate that no one's been talking about and independent polls start showing a close race after the Republican field has developed a bit, then I might consider moving it to the lower end of lean D.  Until then though, there's really no reason to think this race will be particularly competitive.  I'm not even convinced Duffy could've made this anything more than lean D, tbh.

Duffy has always seemed to be a paper tiger to me tbh.

Agreed.  I think Democrats are making a mistake by not targeting him this cycle with a wave insurance candidate.  

[mcmikk]

Lean to Likely D, closer to Lean D if Hovde is her opponent. As counterintuitive as it seems, I would bet there will be a decent amount of Baldwin/Walker voters.

What? How? Wisconsin is way too polarized for that. The state has a history of electing both extremely conservative and extremely progressive politicians, which Walker and Baldwin actually demonstrate quite well. I can say with a decent amount of confidence that there's no way they're both winning. Wisconsin hasn't split parties in Senate and Gubernatorial contests since 1994, and I don't really see how Walker could have any appeal to potential Baldwin voters, and vice-versa.

[_]

Lean to Likely D, closer to Lean D if Hovde is her opponent. As counterintuitive as it seems, I would bet there will be a decent amount of Baldwin/Walker voters.

What? How? Wisconsin is way too polarized for that. The state has a history of electing both extremely conservative and extremely progressive politicians, which Walker and Baldwin actually demonstrate quite well. I can say with a decent amount of confidence that there's no way they're both winning. Wisconsin hasn't split parties in Senate and Gubernatorial contests since 1994, and I don't really see how Walker could have any appeal to potential Baldwin voters, and vice-versa.

Didn't they split in 2012 in the recall?

[Virginiá]

Didn't they split in 2012 in the recall?

The recall election took place months before the presidential election.

[_]

Didn't they split in 2012 in the recall?

The recall election took place months before the presidential election.

Sorry for the mistake then.

[Heisenberg]

Didn't they split in 2012 in the recall?

The recall election took place months before the presidential election.

Sorry for the mistake then.

Also, in 1998, they reelected both Thompson and Feingold.

[Young Conservative]

Toss up. She's too liberal for the state.

[I’m not Stu]

Lean D

[mcmikk]

Didn't they split in 2012 in the recall?

The recall election took place months before the presidential election.

Sorry for the mistake then.

Also, in 1998, they reelected both Thompson and Feingold.

That's true, but Thompson was a different kind of beast. He transcended ideology, party labels, demographics, everything, and he would consistently win in landslides. That also happened in 1994. I'd argue Sen. Herb Kohl who was reelected then was similar to Thompson in that respect.

Then again, there weren't a whole lot of quasi-recent midterms with both a Senator and a non-Thompson Governor on the ballot.

2010 - Walker and Johnson won
2006 - Doyle and Kohl won
1998 - Thompson and Feingold won
1994 - Thompson and Kohl won
1986 - Thompson and Kasten won

However, if we look at when Presidential and Senate contests aligned, Wisconsin hasn't split ticket since 1968.

2016 - Trump and Johnson won
2012 - Obama and Baldwin won
2004 - Kerry and Feingold won
2000 - Gore and Kohl won
1992 - Clinton and Feingold won
1988 - Dukakis and Kohl won
1980 - Reagan and Kasten won
1976 - Carter and Proxmire won
1968 - Nixon and Nelson won

[freepcrusher]

I'd put it around likely D. Some of you will say that "times are different" but WI D incumbent senators have done quite well in past outparty midterms

2006: Kohl 67.31%
1982: Proxmire 63.6%
1974: Nelson 61.8%
1970: Proxmire 70.8%
1958: Proxmire (only a semi-incumbent) 57.1%

if Baldwin can't win by a solid amount in a strong dem year against a sh**t opponent, then she should probably be primaried in 2024 if she doesn't retire.

[Xing]

Lean to Likely D, closer to Lean D if Hovde is her opponent. As counterintuitive as it seems, I would bet there will be a decent amount of Baldwin/Walker voters.

What? How? Wisconsin is way too polarized for that. The state has a history of electing both extremely conservative and extremely progressive politicians, which Walker and Baldwin actually demonstrate quite well. I can say with a decent amount of confidence that there's no way they're both winning. Wisconsin hasn't split parties in Senate and Gubernatorial contests since 1994, and I don't really see how Walker could have any appeal to potential Baldwin voters, and vice-versa.

It's true that Wisconsin is very polarized, and tends to elect very liberal Democrats and very conservative Republicans, but we don't know who Baldwin's or Walker's opponent will be yet. Also, I would mention that while Wisconsin voted for both Kerry and Feingold in 2004, Feingold won by over 10%, while Kerry won by just 0.4%. I'm not saying that Walker and Baldwin could both win by double digits, but I think Walker winning by 2% while Baldwin wins by 4% is a feasible outcome.