WI Senate 2018 - "Quietly Becoming the Top Senate Race of 2018"

[mcmikk]

Lean to Likely D, closer to Lean D if Hovde is her opponent. As counterintuitive as it seems, I would bet there will be a decent amount of Baldwin/Walker voters.

What? How? Wisconsin is way too polarized for that. The state has a history of electing both extremely conservative and extremely progressive politicians, which Walker and Baldwin actually demonstrate quite well. I can say with a decent amount of confidence that there's no way they're both winning. Wisconsin hasn't split parties in Senate and Gubernatorial contests since 1994, and I don't really see how Walker could have any appeal to potential Baldwin voters, and vice-versa.

It's true that Wisconsin is very polarized, and tends to elect very liberal Democrats and very conservative Republicans, but we don't know who Baldwin's or Walker's opponent will be yet. Also, I would mention that while Wisconsin voted for both Kerry and Feingold in 2004, Feingold won by over 10%, while Kerry won by just 0.4%. I'm not saying that Walker and Baldwin could both win by double digits, but I think Walker winning by 2% while Baldwin wins by 4% is a feasible outcome.

It's somewhat feasible, but I really can't see it happening. If 2018 turns out to be a good Democratic year, I think progressives/liberals are going to be bloodthirsty for whatever Republican they can take out as a means to repudiate Donald Trump. If 2018 turns out be a more even contest I can see a certain amount of split ticket independents saving Walker, but I don't think it's going to go that way.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Lean D minimum. Outparty senators are notoriously difficult to take out in midterms and there are several Democratic senators more vulnerable than her. In a midterm under a Democratic White House she would be far more vulnerable.

[I’m not Stu]

Lean D minimum. Outparty senators are notoriously difficult to take out in midterms and there are several Democratic senators more vulnerable than her. In a midterm under a Democratic White House she would be far more vulnerable.

How would Glenn Grothman do against Baldwin. Would he lose because he's too extreme?

[Kamala]

Lean D minimum. Outparty senators are notoriously difficult to take out in midterms and there are several Democratic senators more vulnerable than her. In a midterm under a Democratic White House she would be far more vulnerable.

How would Glenn Grothman do against Baldwin. Would he lose because he's too extreme?

He's also kind of a weirdo...

[mcmikk]

Lean D minimum. Outparty senators are notoriously difficult to take out in midterms and there are several Democratic senators more vulnerable than her. In a midterm under a Democratic White House she would be far more vulnerable.

How would Glenn Grothman do against Baldwin. Would he lose because he's too extreme?

He's also kind of a weirdo...

How so, exactly?

[JoshPA]

Lean D but i would not be surprise to see a republican win.

[I’m not Stu]

Lean D but i would not be surprise to see a republican win.

[The Other Castro]

Sheriff David Clarke says he won't run.

http://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2017/07/21/sheriff-david-clarke-wont-run-senate-against-tammy-baldwin/500561001/

[mcmikk]

So apparently, Kevin Nicholson, a businessman, former marine, and member of the Wisconsin VA Board, is running against Tammy Baldwin in 2018.

youtube(dot)com/watch?v=x5Qp6U62ZUE&ab_channel=NicholsonforSenate

He was formerly the President of the College Democrats of America, and spoke at the 2000 convention.  He touches on that in his video. He calls himself an "outsider. marine. conservative" and he looks a bit like a more presentable Trump-lite. With his "outsider" shtick, siding with Trump on the transgender ban, among other things.

How would he fare in the general against Baldwin? How would he fare in the primary and who would potential other Republicans be?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Nicholson seems Tom Cotton-ish to me and is probably a foreign policy hawk.  I don't know if that plays well in states like Wisconsin.

[Cactus Jack]

After Johnson, I'm not about to underestimate a self-funder. Baldwin needs to bury him as soon as she can.

[Heisenberg]

Nicholson seems Tom Cotton-ish to me and is probably a foreign policy hawk.  I don't know if that plays well in states like Wisconsin.

It won't, especially in WI-03 and WI-07, which, together, usually provide the statewide winner's margin of victory. And with Evers running for Governor, this really hurts his (or any GOP nominee against Baldwin) chances of hoping for Walker coattails.

[mcmikk]

I think if someone else enters the GOP primary (likely Leah Vukmir),  Nicholson could be hammered on his being president of College Democrats of America and some questions regarding his political affiliation in 2008 I believe. He seems to imply that being liberal is for those who are naive and don't understand the real world. Whether you think that's true or not, it doesn't sound like he's going to have any sort of crossover appeal. Taking a quick look at his Twitter he tries to reinforce his being an "outsider" and "taking on career politicians in Washington"(because that line hasn't been used 100000 times before) and is acting all doom and gloom about America even though it's in decent shape so far.

"We live in the greatest country in the world, but our Republic is in serious trouble." -actual quote from Kevin Nicholson

He seems to be some sort of crappy Trump-lite, which I feel isn't going to play super well, even in states that Trump won like Wisconsin. He vaguely reminds me of Josh Mandel, an even more blatant Trumpist.

If he makes it out of the primary I'm pretty confident that he'll lose.

[Cynthia]

Likely D. Closer to lean than to safe.

[mcmikk]

This guy is bitching about "liberal judges" now. It's the same "activist judge" talking point that's been used forever. He has nothing that makes him unique. Just a generic, firebreathing right-winger. I already don't like this guy.

I think he's going to turn to be a generic far-right candidate whose main attack on Baldwin is that she's liberal. I have my doubts that that's going to play well in a Trump midterm. Just Republicans have won narrowly in 2014 and 2016 here doesn't mean Wisconsin is suddenly Arkansas.

If he becomes the nominee and beats Vukmir(or whoever) in the primary Tammy Baldwin can afford to relax a little.

[Dr. Arch]

This guy is bitching about "liberal judges" now. It's the same "activist judge" talking point that's been used forever. He has nothing that makes him unique. Just a generic, firebreathing right-winger. I already don't like this guy.

I think he's going to turn to be a generic far-right candidate whose main attack on Baldwin is that she's liberal. I have my doubts that that's going to play well in a Trump midterm. Just Republicans have won narrowly in 2014 and 2016 here doesn't mean Wisconsin is suddenly Arkansas.

If he becomes the nominee and beats Vukmir(or whoever) in the primary Tammy Baldwin can afford to relax a little.

[Coraxion]

I've been thinking about it, and, do you think attacking Baldwin for being a lesbian would be a good strategy for the GOP? We all saw last year how deplorables in Wisconsin react very positively to all sorts of bigotry.

[Dr. Arch]

I've been thinking about it, and, do you think attacking Baldwin for being a lesbian would be a good strategy for the GOP? We all saw last year how deplorables in Wisconsin react very positively to all sorts of bigotry.

Horrible idea. While many see the appeal in xenophobic rhetoric and nationalism, I doubt that there is a solid base here (outside of WoW) that would buy into homophobic rhetoric. Wisconsin, at its most conservative in this particular area, is socially moderate. While the candidate can choose to appeal to WoW, they would alienate the rest of the state, which is a formula for disaster.

[TheSaint250]

I've been thinking about it, and, do you think attacking Baldwin for being a lesbian would be a good strategy for the GOP? We all saw last year how deplorables in Wisconsin react very positively to all sorts of bigotry.

Literally everything in that is wrong.

Why would you even think of suggesting that as a strategy?  Any candidate who does that deserves to be dropped as nominee or forced to drop out of a race if the candidate is not the nominee.

[Mr. Smith]

I've been thinking about it, and, do you think attacking Baldwin for being a lesbian would be a good strategy for the GOP? We all saw last year how deplorables in Wisconsin react very positively to all sorts of bigotry.

Uh, Trump got as far as he did specifically because he didn't pander that way on homophobia and even had the rainbow flag flying.

While the T part is still fodder and expendable to go to the base as red meat when sh*( hits the fan, the LG and B parts clearly aren't.

[Indy Texas]

Lean D minimum. Outparty senators are notoriously difficult to take out in midterms and there are several Democratic senators more vulnerable than her. In a midterm under a Democratic White House she would be far more vulnerable.

How would Glenn Grothman do against Baldwin. Would he lose because he's too extreme?

He's also kind of a weirdo...

How so, exactly?

Never married, physically unattractive. Liberal talk radio here makes plenty of below-the-belt jokes about him being a neckbeard living in his mom's basement (he does not, AFAIK).

[mcmikk]

I've been thinking about it, and, do you think attacking Baldwin for being a lesbian would be a good strategy for the GOP? We all saw last year how deplorables in Wisconsin react very positively to all sorts of bigotry.

Horrible idea. While many see the appeal in xenophobic rhetoric and nationalism, I doubt that there is a solid base here (outside of WoW) that would buy into homophobic rhetoric. Wisconsin, at its most conservative in this particular area, is socially moderate. While the candidate can choose to appeal to WoW, they would alienate the rest of the state, which is a formula for disaster.

For the whole rise of Donald Trump and the "Deplorables", I feel American culture has become a lot more accepting to LGBT people over the past few years. If her sexuality never made much of an impact in 2012, I doubt it will matter too much in 2018. Sure, doing that might play well to a very minuscule group of voters, but it's gonna harm the GOP candidate way more than it could ever benefit them. I doubt Nicholson, or any Republican candidate, would be that stupid to use that as a talking point. They'll probably just say something about big, scary Madison and its radical liberal progressive socialist communist leftists.

[Dr. Arch]

I've been thinking about it, and, do you think attacking Baldwin for being a lesbian would be a good strategy for the GOP? We all saw last year how deplorables in Wisconsin react very positively to all sorts of bigotry.

Horrible idea. While many see the appeal in xenophobic rhetoric and nationalism, I doubt that there is a solid base here (outside of WoW) that would buy into homophobic rhetoric. Wisconsin, at its most conservative in this particular area, is socially moderate. While the candidate can choose to appeal to WoW, they would alienate the rest of the state, which is a formula for disaster.

For the whole rise of Donald Trump and the "Deplorables", I feel American culture has become a lot more accepting to LGBT people over the past few years. If her sexuality never made much of an impact in 2012, I doubt it will matter too much in 2018. Sure, doing that might play well to a very minuscule group of voters, but it's gonna harm the GOP candidate way more than it could ever benefit them. I doubt Nicholson, or any Republican candidate, would be that stupid to use that as a talking point. They'll probably just say something about big, scary Madison and its radical liberal progressive socialist communist leftists.

Ugh... I'm downright tired of that BS.

[mcmikk]

I've been thinking about it, and, do you think attacking Baldwin for being a lesbian would be a good strategy for the GOP? We all saw last year how deplorables in Wisconsin react very positively to all sorts of bigotry.

Horrible idea. While many see the appeal in xenophobic rhetoric and nationalism, I doubt that there is a solid base here (outside of WoW) that would buy into homophobic rhetoric. Wisconsin, at its most conservative in this particular area, is socially moderate. While the candidate can choose to appeal to WoW, they would alienate the rest of the state, which is a formula for disaster.

For the whole rise of Donald Trump and the "Deplorables", I feel American culture has become a lot more accepting to LGBT people over the past few years. If her sexuality never made much of an impact in 2012, I doubt it will matter too much in 2018. Sure, doing that might play well to a very minuscule group of voters, but it's gonna harm the GOP candidate way more than it could ever benefit them. I doubt Nicholson, or any Republican candidate, would be that stupid to use that as a talking point. They'll probably just say something about big, scary Madison and its radical liberal progressive socialist communist leftists.

Ugh... I'm downright tired of that BS.

Well hold on to your hats. That's all WI Republicans have used forever. Associate progressives(which Wisconsin has a proud tradition) with "limousine liberals" in the big cities(Madison, bonus points for Milwaukee because it has more black people) to rile up the conservative voters who despise the "elite" and "radical lefties", etc. despite the Wisconsin GOP so unbelievably right-wing themselves.

Though admittedly Tammy Baldwin's persona doesn't seem to fit the more rural, working class parts of the state(at least to me) the way that perhaps Johnson(as much as I hate to admit it), Feingold, or Randy Bryce seem to. However that's just my opinion and it may not be super well-founded or accurate.

That said, despite the GOP's anti-urban strategy they seem to constantly want to employ, usually attacks on being "too liberal" don't seem to stick so long as the political headwinds are right. Didn't seem to matter for Baldwin in 2012, and she managed to beat Tommy Thompson, the man who once defied all laws of politics and voter demographics to cruise to easy gubernatorial victories. If Baldwin can make more inroads among the WWC and fire up the liberal base(which shouldn't be too much of a challenge seeing the ever-growing "Resistance" movement), she can give herself more and more advantages. I think WI Democrats can make issue of the Republican trifecta in the state government and all the radical right-wing policies they've enacted(eliminating collective bargaining, attacking voting rights, etc.) similarly to North Carolina in 2014(not actually sure how much of an issue it was because I wasn't into politics back then, I'm just assuming based off what info I have about the race) I think Democrats have a shot at making a comeback all across the board in Wisconsin. They have a serious candidate for AG as well as numerous Dems lining up to challenge Scott Walker.

That went off-topic just a wee bit, but I think you get the point that the anti-urban, anti-liberal GOP strategy is a tired one and very well may not work so effectively in 2018.

[Kingpoleon]

I've been thinking about it, and, do you think attacking Baldwin for being a lesbian would be a good strategy for the GOP? We all saw last year how deplorables in Wisconsin react very positively to all sorts of bigotry.

Horrible idea. While many see the appeal in xenophobic rhetoric and nationalism, I doubt that there is a solid base here (outside of WoW) that would buy into homophobic rhetoric. Wisconsin, at its most conservative in this particular area, is socially moderate. While the candidate can choose to appeal to WoW, they would alienate the rest of the state, which is a formula for disaster.

For the whole rise of Donald Trump and the "Deplorables", I feel American culture has become a lot more accepting to LGBT people over the past few years. If her sexuality never made much of an impact in 2012, I doubt it will matter too much in 2018. Sure, doing that might play well to a very minuscule group of voters, but it's gonna harm the GOP candidate way more than it could ever benefit them. I doubt Nicholson, or any Republican candidate, would be that stupid to use that as a talking point. They'll probably just say something about big, scary Madison and its radical liberal progressive socialist communist leftists.

It's Nixon Re: Kennedy's Catholicism: anyone who cares would vote against Baldwin(KENNEDY) anyway, and explicitly attacking her(HIS) homosexuality(CATHOLICISM) would only damage themselves among swing voters.