OH-PPD: Mandel +8

[MT Treasurer]

50% Josh Mandel (R)
42% Sherrod Brown (D, inc.)

Trump approval: 54/41 (+13)
Kasich approval: 43/51 (-8)
Portman approval: 59/36 (+23)

Link.

Was 49% Mandel, 44% Brown in May.

Again... a major grain of salt, it's still early, etc. etc.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah like I said, I wouldn't simply dismiss this poll - these guys and Emerson were actually the most accurate OH pollsters in 2016, LOL. But yeah, their national tracker was junk. It's still early anyway.

Can't believe y'all fell for it!

Nevertheless, I'm bullish on 2018 not even being that bad of a year for Senate Dems yet Brown being one of the ones to go down. Feel free to laugh at me now, just like they laughed at me back in August when I said OH (rather obviously) needed to be triaged.

Not that my opinion counts for anything, but it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Brown lost while Donnelly won right next door in Indiana.

Brown's increasing national profile in a state trending right seem like a liability in this environment. I'm also bearish on Baldwin's chances with a halfway decent nominee challenging her.

I don't think Donnelly will do better than Brown, but I believe Tester and Heitkamp (and Manchin, assuming he faces Morrisey) are in a better position to win reelection than Brown and maybe even Baldwin and Nelson.