OH-PPD: Mandel +8
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  OH-PPD: Mandel +8
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Author Topic: OH-PPD: Mandel +8  (Read 4852 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: July 09, 2017, 05:17:49 PM »

50% Josh Mandel (R)
42% Sherrod Brown (D, inc.)

Trump approval: 54/41 (+13)
Kasich approval: 43/51 (-8)
Portman approval: 59/36 (+23)

Link.

Was 49% Mandel, 44% Brown in May.

Again... a major grain of salt, it's still early, etc. etc.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2017, 05:19:10 PM »

Too far out, and a pound of salt, but this can't make a democrat feel good at all...
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #2 on: July 09, 2017, 05:23:48 PM »
« Edited: July 09, 2017, 05:29:48 PM by superbudgie1582 »

Part of me is happy Hillary isnt president right now, Brown would be down by double digits.

Was PPD the guys with the awful tracking poll?
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« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2017, 05:33:13 PM »

Well the crosstabs seem somewhat accurate, still Tossup, but if polls like these keep happening.....
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #4 on: July 09, 2017, 05:39:49 PM »

Trump 54/41 --> No.

Kasich underwater is interesting though.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #5 on: July 09, 2017, 05:42:54 PM »

2018 is going to be an absolute bloodbath.

A likely scenario is Republicans gaining seats in the Senate and loosing the house.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #6 on: July 09, 2017, 05:52:45 PM »

Apparently losing Ohio elections is a popular activity for democrats. 2014 Gov, 2016 Pres/Seen, and so far this race.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #7 on: July 09, 2017, 06:19:12 PM »

Dominating!
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #8 on: July 09, 2017, 08:32:45 PM »

Apparently losing Ohio elections is a popular activity for democrats. 2014 Gov, 2016 Pres/Seen, and so far this race.

On that, I agree.
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RFayette
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« Reply #9 on: July 09, 2017, 09:00:11 PM »

This is probably generous to Mandel, but I think that we're starting to see the trends from 2016 continuing on in polling - i.e. the more Trump-friendly areas appear more GOP-leaning in congressional races in 2018 than those which were more hostile to Trump yet more traditionally Republican.  Archie Parnell is an exception here, but the special elections in general thus far suggest 2016 Presidential results as our new baseline for relative GOP congressional strength.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #10 on: July 09, 2017, 09:02:38 PM »

Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to see Republicans lose the House and increase their Senate majority.  However, it is too early to tell.
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15 Down, 35 To Go
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« Reply #11 on: July 09, 2017, 09:07:40 PM »

Our path to 60!!
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #12 on: July 09, 2017, 09:10:13 PM »
« Edited: July 09, 2017, 09:26:47 PM by TD »

I have to check, but isn't this poll related to Jeff Roe, Cruz's former campaign manager? I'm uncertain so I'm just asking. He's a different firm.

Regardless, this is the Twitter page for the editor in chief.

I'm skeptical because Sherrod Brown has been a very good fit for Ohio and won 2012 by 6 points and 20 points in 2006. Mandel is going for a rematch and usually rematches don't end well. Especially in years where he's the incumbent party's nominee in a midterm.

I haven't found a 538 rating for these guys.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #13 on: July 09, 2017, 09:25:04 PM »


Surprise.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
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« Reply #14 on: July 09, 2017, 09:28:26 PM »

Brown should probably focus more on the issues that affect Ohioans and less on Russia.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #15 on: July 09, 2017, 11:14:48 PM »

Interesting that McCaskill is holding up better than Brown.


Still way early tho.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #16 on: July 09, 2017, 11:21:28 PM »

I seriously can't see how Trunp is at a 54/41 approval in Ohio while pooling in the high 30s
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #17 on: July 09, 2017, 11:24:10 PM »

What's ominous about this poll is that Mandel is already at 50%. However it's still early. Mandel could get a primary challenger (Maybe Mary Taylor, John Husted or Mike DeWine switches to this race from the Governor's race). Maybe the environment gets very good for Democrats.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #18 on: July 10, 2017, 05:44:32 AM »

lol People's Pundit Daily
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mvd10
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« Reply #19 on: July 10, 2017, 05:49:51 AM »

Trash poll. Trump's approval rating in Ohio can't be above 45%. We need to watch this race, but I don't think Mandel can beat Brown in a Trump midterm.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #20 on: July 10, 2017, 06:54:36 AM »

Part of me is happy Hillary isnt president right now, Brown would be down by double digits.

Was PPD the guys with the awful tracking poll?

Yeah, they had the trash tracker last year.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #21 on: July 10, 2017, 07:43:37 AM »

Can't believe y'all fell for it!

Nevertheless, I'm bullish on 2018 not even being that bad of a year for Senate Dems yet Brown being one of the ones to go down. Feel free to laugh at me now, just like they laughed at me back in August when I said OH (rather obviously) needed to be triaged.
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Skye
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« Reply #22 on: July 10, 2017, 08:30:26 AM »

Trump up by double digits?

Kasich underwater?

Color me skeptical.
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #23 on: July 10, 2017, 08:44:07 AM »

Trash poll. Last I heard, Trump's favorables in Ohio were in the low 40s.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #24 on: July 10, 2017, 08:51:32 AM »

Lol, Brown may very well lose, but can we get a real poll of Ohio soon?
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