Favorite recent post by the previous poster

[Atlas Force]

Yes.

It is an unfair and unproductive to have a system where if you become ill, you can become bankrupt. Its very un-meritocratic.

Universal health-care isn't some wonder world. I have my issues with how the NHS is run but in my opinion, I'd rather wait a bit longer for less urgent care than pay thousands if God forbid I get injured. If you don't want to wait and feel that the healthcare isn't good quality, you can still go and get private healthcare.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

Alabama - Likely R
Alaska - Tossup
Arizona - Lean R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Likely D
Connecticut - Lean D
Florida - Tossup
Georgia - Lean R
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Lean D
Iowa - Tossup
Kansas - Lean R
Maine - Lean D
Maryland - Tossup
Massachusetts - Safe R
Michigan - Lean D
Minnesota - Lean D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Lean D
New Hampshire - Tossup
New Mexico - Likely D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Tossup
Oklahoma - Lean R
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Safe D
Rhode Island - Lean D
South Carolina - Likely R
South Dakota - Safe R
Tennessee - Likely R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Lean D
Wyoming - Likely R

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

These parents should be prosecuted and have their kids taken away.

These parents have, indeed, moved into the area of criminal liability.  They have made threats that have varying degree of credibility, and that should be dealt with in ways that reflect the seriousness of their acts.  You can't do everything you want in the name of "protecting your kids".

There is, however, the question of a student, who is biologically maie, in the girls restroom at a school looking down over other students.  Is that true?  Is that something that was happening?  Now I realize that all sorts of falsehoods can arise over issues like this, but the school neither confirms nor denies this.  I have four (4) school-age granddaughters, and I would not appreciate knowing that a biological male was using the girls room and peeping them.  And I would not appreciate a biological male using the girls room (especially one my granddaughters would use) especially if the school had told the child not to and had made arrangements for a solution that did not require that child to use the boys room.

The child is biologically male.  I feel badly for whatever this child's mental angst, and for the child's parents, but this situation is one of a biological male using the girls' restroom.  You'll forgive my Neanderthal viewpoint, but I don't understand why the entire group of female students and their at that school have to be the ones to adjust THEIR comfort level in the restroom, when the school has made accomodations for this student that do not require this student to use the same facility male students use.

I would ask, in this unique situation, all things considered, why the separate bathroom solution isn't good enough?  This situation is NOT the equivilent of racial segregation, and people are just flat out full of crap if they assert otherwise.  There's NO perfect solution here.  This child has issues, to be sure, but he is physically male, and while the vitriol and threats from other parents (especially the parents of girls) are wrong and uncalled for, the concern for the situation is valid, and I cannot blame them for their anger when their concerns are met with them being dismissed as "bigots" with a massive side order of political correctness to wash their dismissal down with.  The girls at that school have every right to emotional safety when using the rest room as well, and they have (I believe) the right to know that someone who is biologically male is not in the restroom with them.

The advocates for this child range from the well-intentioned to the self-absorbed and politically motivated.  None of them seem to have any empathy whatsoever for the female students in that school, or their parents.  Calling people "bigots" is their solution to everything. 

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

Moron-In-Chief

Did you stay up all night composing this post?

 

[Atlas Force]

Garcetti's playing to his constituency.  He's not running for President.  He's a guy who might make it to the short list of a nominee's VP selections, but that's about it.

[CookieDamage]

>NJ being as competitive as MO and IN

[wesmoorenerd]

Y'all love saying "illegals" but I guarantee you guys freak out when someone refers to white people as "whites"

[NOVA Green]

Races that aren't on the forecasters' radar: NY-02 and NJ-04. 2016's biggest shocker in the House was an entrenched moderate incumbent from Minnesota, Tim Walz, almost losing. I think 2018's biggest shockers will be entrenched moderate incumbents from the Mid-Atlantic, Pete King and Chris Smith, almost losing or actually losing. Both of these incumbents are facing decently strong and well funded challengers and I feel like they may not be taking the challenge seriously enough.

Races that aren't on the DCCC's radar: there's a bunch, but two that stand out to me are VA-05 and MT-AL. VA-05 may have the worst Democratic House candidate in the nation in Leslie Cockburn, but her opponent is also pretty terrible and the district could flip if it was given attention. MT-AL is just bizarre. Other than Cockburn, Kathleen Williams is pretty much the only "Tossup/Lean R" tier nominee not to be added to Red to Blue yet. Does she just have skeletons in her closet nobody knows about or has this race really passed by the DCCC's radar? GA-07, TX-21, and MO-02 also fit the bill, although they're not as competitive.

[Thunder98]

Although, I have been extremely reticent to post on this topic over the past Five Months, except an occasional handful of individual threads, I'm starting to move towards the opinion that Brown will likely win this by at least +5% D margins this November.

Anyone who followed or spent any time in my Oregon 2016 GE Thread is well aware of the import that I place on "Upstate vs Downstate Oregon politics" ....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.0

1.) I'm coming of the opinion that in the current political environment Trump essentially "Maxed Out" the Republican Vote Share in most of Southern and Eastern Oregon.

The only places where I could see Buehler improving might be around the margins in places like Medford, Grants Pass, and Bend, but NOT in the heavily RURAL precincts of essentially CD-02.

2.) If we move further up in the Southern Willamette Valley, and some parts of Southern Coastal Oregon (CD-04) we generally see a similar phenomenon compared to Several Decades of partisan electoral history, even for Statewide Elections, where 'Pubs tend to perform a bit better than FED candidates.

2016 in many ways was more of an alignment in Southern Oregon areas that had been voting heavily Republican for Statewide Contests, while simultaneously some voters filling in their Mail in Ballot for Democrats for PRES, US-SEN, and OR CD-04.

Still, how many more PUB votes are there to be bagged for OR-GOV in '18 compared to TRUMP '16 and OR-GOV '16 #s?

Sure there are potential Indy Voters in parts of Eugene-Springfield that voted HRC '16 that might vote Buehler '18, BUT IS IT ENOUGH.

3.) We roll into the Mid Willamette Valley (OR-CD-05), which is a weird hybrid CD stretching from PDX suburbs and Exurbs all the way down to encompass all of Marion County, grabbing a chunk of Benton and Linn Counties....

In theory, if Buehler were to win, he would need to bag some major numbers in this CD in Oregon....

Problem is that Marion County contains Salem, the State Capitol, and running against Salem doesn't play very well in Marion County, considering that there are HUGE number of State employees covered under Union contracts that come from a wide array of Political, Social, and Economic classes, that don't buy the message that "Government is the Enemy"....

Additionally CD-05 contains some pretty swingy parts of Metro PDX suburban Clackamas County, where quite frankly the 'Pub brand is pretty toxic these days in the "Era of Trump".

Many of the bills that Kate Brown signed into law and helped support through the Democratic Oregon Majority State House and Senate, are fairly popular in these very communities where Buehler needs to reverse some of the massive DEM swings we have seen in the past few election cycles, in areas traditionally more receptive towards a 'PUB GOV, regardless of what the political alignment is "Out East in Washington (DC not State )"

4.) We look at CD-01.... The Coastal Oregon sliver of the District is heavily aging and Ancestral Democrat, and historically has been fairly resistant to "Downstate" vs "Upstate" political dynamics in terms of FED vs OR STATE elections.... (Excepting Columbia County).

Now we move into the West PDX Suburbs that compromise a large majority of the Vote Share in CD-01 and again we hit that brick wall of places likes Hillsboro, Beaverton, Tigard, etc  that started shifting hard DEM at the FED level going back over 20 Yrs, and even increasingly DEM at the Statewide level, although these elections typically have been much closer in these communities contrasted against FED DEM margins.

It's hard for me to envision in 2018 a "Compassionate Moderate Conservative" like Buehler playing well in these types of places, considering the leader of the "PUB BRAND" he is representing, in arguably one of the most educated and ethnically diverse Counties in Oregon (Washington County), which ever since I was a kid in the '80s was nicknamed "Silicon Forest"....

5.) OR-CD-03- East Portland & Gresham

Well, obviously the game here for Buehler would be to keep DEM TO low, since the raw vote totals out of East MultCo can one hand completely slaughter PUB raw margins elsewhere in Oregon.

Many people seem to forgot how poorly Trump performed in both the Working-Class, Middle-Class, and Upper Middle-Class precincts of most of the Big Cities of the West Coast....

Sure, Buehler might well be able to jack up some numbers in fast growing Gresham and Troutdale, but I'm not really seeing the math here, even in both WWC precincts in the North part of the District, heavily SE-Asian-American precincts  in outer SE and Inner NE Portland, etc....

I might well be wrong, so my opinion is not gospel and can and certainly should be challenged....

6.) Kate Brown is already reviled and despised in many parts of rural and small-town downstate Oregon.

A.) Much of that has less to do with her actual policy decisions, but rather that whole Oregonian thing where in more peripheral parts of the State there is a disassociation between the "Core and Periphery" that goes back in Decades of Oregon State Elections, especially with the start of the "Timber Wars" of the late '80s/ Early Mid '90s.

B.) Guns is a major issue that I have heard voiced in the large MFG Facility where I work, and even excepting partisan bias on the part of some individuals, there is a perception among many DEM persuadable voters that, she has an "Anti-Gun" agenda...

This is a part of Oregon, where if someone brings in some Venison Steak or Sausage to work, because they or their spouse filled out their tags, it get's brought in to share with co-workers at the Plant, because there are already plenty of Venison Steaks in the freezer to last until next Deer Hunting Season.

C.) Kate Brown's alleged sexual orientation is a non-issue to the overwhelming majority of Oregon Voters....

Haters will be haters, and honestly most Oregonians don't give an eff about any of that.

Evangelicals will def vote hard PUB in OR since they have from the '90s onwards, but quite frankly there aren't very many of them in Oregon, and since the days of the OCA, the swingy ones are long since disassociated from the Anti-LGTBQ Hate Agenda that we experienced from the late '80s to the early '90s....

D.) One thing that in theory might have worked in the PUBS favor the OR-GOV election, "Tax Cuts", which in theory disproportionately benefit Middle and Upper Middle-Class voters in the 'Burbs of PDX, Salem, Eugene, not to mention many other similar communities in places like Corvallis, Jackson and Deschutes County, has effectively been neutered by the "Trump Tax Cuts" that disproportionately targeted Democratic leaning States where individuals could deduct State Income Taxes from FED taxes to lower their overall Tax Burden....

Not seeing how well this will play in Wealthier places in Deschutes, Jackson, Washington, Clackamas, Benton, and even Multnomah Counties.....

[Alabama_Indy10]

I like Jeb!

[Atlas Force]

I’m also not a fan of mayonnaise.

[Thunder98]

Lawl

It's over for the DFL. Many Minnesotans have great memories of T-Paw and will happily vote for him. Say goodbye to MN-01 and MN-08 while we're at it. Blue wave is officially dead in this state.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yep he is celebrating his 50% Rasmussen approval ratings on Instagram.

[Atlas Force]

You don’t care about people, you care about the cases like this because it helps further your preferred agenda, literally Steinle’s family is begging nutbags to stop using their daughter, but to no avail.

[CookieDamage]

Beautiful stunning Maria Elvira Salazar (R) will pull off a massive upset and beat Donna Shalala in the general.

LMAO

[Atlas Force]

Write In: Jim Webb or Marco Rubio

A bore who looks like a Serial Killer and someone who repeats himself like a robot

[TDAS04]

https://steamcommunity.com/id/RealDuncanHunter

“The vape king of video games” lol

[Politician]

I agree that electing a Democrat would be a return to normalcy in a sense.  It would certainly be a return to sanity.

Unfortunately, it probably wouldn't work.  Too many Americans are dumb enough to believe that Trump is a return to simpler times, to some mythical Americana (that never existed, btw)--where speaking a language other than English was unthinkable, minorities didn't complain, women knew their place, and the entire country was one happy family that followed moral values.

[Atlas Force]

Kansas number 10, really? Lol

Of course, this is basically just freedom for corporations list.

[SATW]

Seriously, this was a thing: https://youtube.com/watch?v=gTq6fLxK4rU

[Atlas Force]

Yeah atlas is nothing like real life lmao haha. Anways, straight like nearly everyone else in the real world.

I know you're an HP poster who enjoys providing nonsensical commentary, but was this jab really necessary? Like, thanks, we know most of the world is straight, buddy.

I mean, until you decided to enlighten us I thought everyone was a bisexual Jewish neoconservative republican like me!

And also, if it really bothers you that Atlas isn't representative of the "real world" maybe its time to get off the internet. Because the internet is not supposed to replace "the real world" (whatever the heck that even means).

I'm not even a poster who gets worked up on LGBT issues that much. I often overlook my political party's anti-LGBT views and society's overall lack of understanding of LGBT issues.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

Scott has never won the governorship by more than 1-point margins, in Republican wave years against one of the worst state Dem parties after spending millions of his own money.

[Thunder98]

McCain was more of a neocon Democrat than a Republican.  I don't believe that he was particularly engaged in domestic issues, except as how they tied into military and foreign policy.  Had he been a Democrat, he'd have had a voting record a lot like Lieberman, and would have been an heir to the Scoop Jackson tradition, IMO.

[Atlas Force]

Mississippi has been a GOP stronghold for many elections and lasted voted Democratic in 1976 with Jimmy Carter. (Electoral history from 1988-2016)

[tallguy23]

Seriously, this was a thing: https://youtube.com/watch?v=gTq6fLxK4rU