Favorite recent post by the previous poster

[Nightcore Nationalist]

As I have said before on this forum, I was brought up in a right-wing echo chamber, but have moved to the left, particularly on economic issues, since I became an adult, going to university, seeing the economic situation of my generation, finding property, and the pandemic. I have also become more ideological. However, it is personal experience that has meant I have retained many of the right-wing views from my echo-chamber days, as well as continued Eurosceptic and pro-life stances.

[TDAS04]

Someone who lives in Arkansas (no joke, look at the trend map)

mid 20s male who was in college in 2016.

Non-college Hispanics of pretty much any age or gender.

[2952-0-0]

Xi has dictatorial power over the second most powerful country on Earth.  He's competent.

Bosonaro to is less competent.  He is destroying the Amazon.  He doesn't have dictatorial powers yet, but should he get them, he could be more ruthless than Xi.

[Joseph Cao]

I didn't say there would be no blowback, just that it wouldn't be worse than the blowback from a military invasion and likely wouldn't be as severe.  From a realpolitik viewpoint, there's no reason for the mainland to do anything against Taiwan, but the CCP has shown that it doesn't always base its actions on realpolitik. If it had, it never would've gone as far as it did in Hong Kong. Still, they have shown a pattern of starting small and then escalating rather than back down or even just stand pat when their small provocation doesn't yield the desired result.

Such a step - threatening to nationalize foreign investment over a political demand - would be seen as the end of China's post-Mao economic reform period, and the start of something very, very bleak.

Hong Kong could be explained as Winnie protecting his own job security: escalating political dissent was immediately threatening Winnie's credibility as CCP leader, and the economic consequences of abolishing its autonomy would take many years to accumulate. It was an action with a short-term benefit (he exerts his credibility as leader, and no immediate backlash), and an unclear long-term cost (foreign investors may gradually become more hesitant in investing in Hong Kong). Threatening Taiwan, even through economic means, would come with no clear short-term benefit (high risk of failure), but definite long-term costs (tens of millions of lost jobs).

The CCP has, for its part, proven sensitive in protecting immediate domestic employment, and when it can claim a victory in domestic propaganda. Do you remember ages ago, in January 2020, when Trump signed his Phase 1 trade deal with Beijing? It imposed a whole slew of demands on China, while the US was free to raise tariffs effectively as it pleased. Effectively, Beijing yielded to Trump's gaslighting, because it was afraid of the alternative, which was an immediate loss of millions of jobs. Then it used its propaganda machine to present this defeat as a victory. Beijing was so, so desperate for that bad trade deal that it ignored news of a festering disease in Wuhan. This means that they are always making political calculations, and are willing to retreat when the conditions are against confrontation.

[S019]

KYWildman would never say that working-class disenchantment was a greater contributor to the rise of Trumpism than Moscow machinations.

? He seems quite angry at the 'woke' wing of the Democratic Party.

Lots of people in Kentucky are, to be fair. That description could apply to thousands of registered Democrats in Lexington alone.

Older than I would've liked since most of their posts are in Atlasia, which doesn't really apply to the broader forum.

[Stuart98]

Britain33, you need to have two Democratic performing Hispanic CD's contained entirely in Bexar County to be safe under the VRA in my opinion.

Ok. Apologies if you covered this in a past map, but what do you propose happens to TX-23 in this scenario? Does it become one of the two performing CDs (an unlikely move for a Republican map) or does it take up the 20% of the county that is most Anglo with approx. 400,000 people, with TX-21 moving out completely? Also, since the RGV doesn't have sufficient population for 3 full Hispanic districts, where do you connect the leftovers to since fajita strips are now out, too? I would like to see the whole that is made from the sum of the parts of your proposition.

Britain33, here is the design of the RGV area I have in mind more or less. Tragically, TX-11 is about 3 points short of 50%+ HCVAP due to the districts having higher population with only 38 districts, and that I think is an important goal for the Pubs to create such a safe Pub district that meets that metric for a host of reasons. It is possible it can be achieved by transferring some of the “excess” Hispanics from TX-15 to TX-11, but how to do that depends on the design of the slice and dice of Williamson and Travis County outside the Austin Dem vote sink, while still keeping TX-23 say 52% HCVAP and safely Pub, without looking ridiculous. VRA sensitive districts need to look reasonable. The uber erose stuff should not be VRA sensitive. The image of the map has in white the real estate where the populations of the CD’s is way off. The underpopulated northern plains white zone (plus whatever TX-11 releases in population if it moves down the RGV more to meet the 50%+ HCVAP threshold (while TX-23 moves down the RGV exclusive of the counties directly appending the river), will be used to “attack” the Metroplex and the Austin area, along with TX-25, whose boundaries will be changed to join the slice and dice party. So a lot more work needs to be done.

In that regard, Victoria County is a pain in the ass for the Hispanic shift referred to above because it is reasonably high population and very Pub and needs to be retained if possible in the CD that joins the Austin area slice and dice, rather than be "wasted" in TX-15. That I find quite annoying, and means TX-15 needs to go father up the coast, which then affects the Houston area slice and dice. One things leads to another.

TX is fun to Pubmander because of the VRA issues and its complexity as to that issue and the wildly diverse trends which one must ponder as to whether they are a precursor for more of the same or more in the nature of a blip.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/b705aabf-808a-4f6b-b837-844af931ad79

I see several issues with this, first McCaul lives in Austin, on the other end of the 10th, so a north south configuration between Harris and Montgomery won't work with that seat. Second, the 9th can remain performing and still take in more of Fort Bend, this makes it necessary not to split the county in half and leaves Nehls' home base intact. Third, TX-34 is 90% Hispanic, no court is going to let that stand, especially since Democrats have already been preparing for multiple VRA lawsuits in many different states, not that hard for them to add TX to that list. Fourth, TX-11 was a leftovers district last time and probably should remain one, this current configuration eats into a lot of the 19th, which is going to cause problems for several rural incumbents who are going to lose large parts of their district. Fifth, Denton County cannot sustain itself anymore, not with the swings it's undergoing, it should be split and part of it paired with the Red River Counties. Sixth, 15 and 23 are in all likelihood not Hispanic enough, you need around 60% for a Hispanic performing seat, in general, and it needs to be more like 70% in the RGV (the probably illegal pack of 28 is probably partially responsible for this). Seventh, the elimination of Doggett's seat is unwise as it serves as a convenient D pack and with 25 being used up and 17 needing to go to Waco to grab Sessions' home, I don't think that Carter is going to be too happy with the 31 that results. One thing that I do like in this map is the carve up of Montgomery, with Brady gone, the GOP should have free reign to slice and dice the county at will. Also the Collin seat isn't going to safe, but I have yet to see a map that successfully pulls that off, Van Taylor is just going to have hope he's strong enough to brave the trends, given we've seen strong incumbents survive in districts zooming away from their party, he should have a chance of pulling it off for sure, unless a Democratic favored year occurs.

[WD]

One of the worst empires of the modern historical era. Only the Nazis were worse and I think the CCP in China is approaching this territory.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Silly question. While Hassan is obviously DOA if Moderate Hero Sununu runs, there’s a least a slight chance she can hold him to a high single-digit margin, whereas Kelly is definitely cracking 80% in every county outside of Maricopa. If Sununu doesn’t run, though, Hassan won’t even be vulnerable, so it’s that much easier to answer.

So the only reason Hassan is vulnerable is because Sununu is an even 'greater'/'stronger' candidate than her, right? Not because of her party affiliation, the underlying cyclical dynamics of this election, her amateurish attempts at cultivating a 'bipartisan' brand, her general lack of charisma/authenticity, etc.? Good point, a truly stellar observation!

Exactly, similar to how Kelly would only be vulnerable against another God-tier candidate like Steve Daines.

That’s not even close to true. Arizona and Montana would both cease to physically exist and would collapse on themselves if this happened.

[_.]

Alabama map I've made.
Only one county split that is avoidable, and avoiding it would make the map horridly uncompact.
AL-07 remains a performing Black CD, and the Birmingham district is 38% black, essentially a minority opportunity CD.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/246fd6c9-2584-4d08-ad88-c9904115d146

Nice map

I didn't intend to reply again so soon, but I liked this post that much and I have been meaning to ask Abdullah about his calculations.

Ask away mate, hopefully we can improve the projections to get rid of any false assumptions I might've made

I'd like to see you do one of these yourselves TBH (as well as many other people, it'll be interesting to compare).

[beesley]

Like Blairite, I know have run my 2030 populations through a proper calculator, and unsurprisingly, I've gotten very different answers from my original projections, where I severely underestimated how many people would be needed for certain states to get another seat (my original prediction was just made by eyeballing the numbers). These are my revised predictions:


TX+3
FL+2
VA+1
WA+1
AZ+1
UT+1
ID+1

CA-2
PA-1
IL-1
OH-1
MI-1
MN-1
WI-1
CT-1
RI-1

The Presidential electoral map would look like this.


Last fifteen seats allocated:

421. AZ-10
422. CO-8
423. TX-40
424. KY-6
425. MS-4
426. IL-16
427. CA-50
428. IN-9
429. MO-8
430. AL-7
431. NY-26
432. WA-10
433. TX-41
434. FL-30
435. VA-12

First fifteen seats which just missed the cutoff:

436. OH-15
437. CA-51
438. RI-2
439. CT-5
440. MI-13
441. MN-8
442. PA-17
443. TX-42
444. GA-15
445. CA-52
446. NV-5
447. WI-8
448. TN-10
449. MA-10
450. NC-15

So some potential dark horses for an unexpected gain of one seat are Georgia, Nevada, Tennessee, Massachusetts, and North Carolina.

On the flip-side, some potential dark horses for an unexpected loss of one seat are Alabama, Missouri, Indiana, Mississippi, and Kentucky.


Inside the spoiler you can see my projection for each state, I used a mixture of the 2019 - 2020 population change in the Vintage Population Estimates, the 2020 Census Resident Population results, and my own personal opinions on where things are going. Even though I tried to keep things realistic, there's a lot of uncertainty here.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Raw Number increase refers to change since 2020, rounded to the nearest 10,000.

• CA: 41,200,000 (+1.66 Million) (+4.2%)
• TX: 33,230,000 (+4.08 Million) (+14.0%)
• FL: 24,200,000 (+2.66 Million) (+12.4%)
• NY: 21,000,000 (+800K) (+4.0%)
• PA: 13,250,000 (+250K) (+1.9%)
• IL: 12,900,000 (+90K) (+0.7%)
• OH: 11,860,000 (+60K) (+0.5%)
• GA: 11,600,000 (+890K) (+8.3%)
• NC: 11,500,000 (+1.06 Million) (+10.2%)
• MI: 10,100,000 (+20K) (+0.2%)
• NJ: 9,750,000 (+460K) (+5.0%)
• VA: 9,410,000 (+780K) (+9.0%)
• WA: 8,630,000 (+920K) (+12.0%)
• AZ: 8,000,000 (+850K) (+11.9%)
• TN: 7,539,000 (+630K) (+9.1%)
• MA: 7,530,000 (+500K) (+7.1%)
• IN: 7,050,000 (+260K) (+3.8%)
• MD: 6,500,000 (+320K) (+5.2%)
• CO: 6,300,000 (+530K) (+9.1%)
• MO: 6,180,000 (+30K) (+0.4%)
• MN: 6,050,000 (+340K) (+6.0%)
• WI: 5,950,000 (+60K) (+1.0%)
• SC: 5,650,000 (+530K) (+10.4%)
• AL: 5,350,000 (+330K) (+6.5%)
• LA: 4,660,000 (±0K) (±0.0%)
• KY: 4,600,000 (+90K) (+2.1%)
• OR: 4,630,000 (+390K) (+9.3%)
• OK: 4,240,000 (+280K) (+7.1%)
• UT: 3,830,000 (+560K) (+17.1%)
• CT: 3,620,000 (+10K) (+0.4%)
• NV: 3,570,000 (+470K) (+15.0%)
• IA: 3,250,000 (+60K) (+1.9%)
• AR: 3,100,000 (+90K) (+2.9%)
• KS: 2,980,000 (+40K) (+1.4%)
• MS: 2,900,000 (-60K) (-2.1%)
• NM: 2,225,000 (+110K) (+5.1%)
• ID: 2,200,000 (+360K) (+19.6%)
• NE: 2,110,000 (+150K) (+7.6%)
• WV: 1,700,000 (-90K) (-5.2%)
• HI: 1,530,000 (+70K) (+5.1%)
• NH: 1,475,000 (+100K) (+7.1%)
• ME: 1,415,000 (+50K) (+3.9%)
• MT: 1,215,000 (+130K) (+12.1%)
• RI: 1,150,000 (+50K) (+4.8%)
• DE: 1,090,000 (+100K) (+10.1%)
• SD: 960,000 (+70K) (+8.3%)
• ND: 820,000 (+40K) (+5.3%)
• AK: 760,000 (+30K) (+3.6%)
• VT: 670,000 (+30K) (+4.2%)
• WY: 600,000 (+20K) (+4.0%)

DC: 760,000 (+70K) (+10.2%)

USA: 352,789,000 (+21.34 Million) (+6.4%)

Feel free to bump this in ten years so we can all laugh hard.

What do you all think?

I didn't intend to reply again so soon, but I liked this post that much and I have been meaning to ask Abdullah about his calculations.

[TDAS04]

Strange map.

[Damocles]

No.  The residents of DC should have full Senatorial representation like other Americans.  They aren't half-people.

Of course, the Senate isn't the most democratic institution, but if every state gets two senators, then every person living in a state is technically represented by two senators (though it's a lot better in small states).

Personally, I think making DC as part of Maryland is a good idea, as it would give the people proper representation.  I just support statehood because it seems like the only option other than the status quo that people are pushing for.  The status quo is unacceptable.  It's taxation without representation, and the people of DC are forced to host all the sleazy members of Congress the states send, but it doesn't get its own members of Congress!

Anyway, giving the district just one senator makes no sense, and wouldn't please anyone.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The modern Republican Party is an out-and-out fascist organization, so...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The only thing that stops a bad guy with a lightsaber is a good guy with a lightsaber.

Counterpoint

[Joseph Cao]

You want to visit Alaska one day?

What happened to D.B. Cooper?

What do you think of Libertarianism? (not giving a definition)


One of my favorite posters  

I absolutely want to see Alaska someday, its natural beauty is breathtaking and it's a very varied place in both human and natural geography.

I actually never heard of D.B. Cooper until just now. But assuming he survived the jump, of all the candidates that are so far known, William J. Smith looks likeliest. We'll never know for sure of course.

Libertarianism is an interesting philosophy that is very, very strongly influential in deciding  my views on some issues such as free speech. But I do tend to hold the view that society is a collection of people who did their jobs and pursued their pleasures in pursuit of enrichment, stability, and spiritual meaning. And so I'm inclined to think in terms of "the greatest good for the greatest number". I self-ID as a communitarian for precisely this reason. Focusing purely on individual efforts and individual needs can handicap broad society, and the end point of that is the sort of unhealty level of societal atomization we see in the present. I would not say this is anti-libertarianism itself per se as much as it might be seen as an unconventional variety focused more on the freedom of groups of people and freedom from repressive things. People should have freedom of speech, freedom of worship, freedom from want, and freedom from fear. True freedom, true liberty, is being liberated from evil and undue restriction of these freedoms. These were formulated by FDR and more or less represent the heart of liberal identity in my view, forming the core of my liberal communitarianist self-identity.

All in all I don't have a doctrinaire, "consistent" political worldview in a way that most politically aware opinionated do, and I don't think one single way of implementing this worldview is best everywhere. It varies from society to society, and time to time. Generally I favor working within established structures and norms, whatever form they might take, and I have strong reformist tendencies, though neither of these are absolute. Pragmatic incrementalism and a strong sense of egalitarianism are among the two biggest influences on how my mind works out what specific policy I support on a given issue, though I also hold the view that it's basically impossible not to have some kind of heirarchy - that's just human nature really. It's impossible not to have a 'political class', especially in the modern era where governance has became even more complicated, and it's impossible not to have people who are richer than others in a complex society.

The fact that societal stratification is also to a certain degree an inevitable consequence of prosperity and complexity within a people means that in practice I wind up placing a lot of focus on "freedom from want" more generally, because the crushing realities of poverty are what can be intensively managed and mitigated by government action. It's also important that people show charity and kindness to each other regardless of their wealth level or background or other sympathies or personal characteristics. Government cannot impose that sort of spirit onto people, especially governments whose policy is heavily impacted by popular elections. Those sorts of ideals need to be vigorous among wider society, aka the electorate. In a government where the overall course of policy is decided more or less by popular elections, aka a democracy (give-or-take), if you have an electorate that cares about X and Y issues and has bad stances on those issues, you just aren't likely to get a government that really cares.

[FT-02 Senator A.F.E. 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

SCHUMER EDITION

SCHUMER EDITION

[Antonio the Sixth]

Context:

The Assad bootlicker Saruku

[Mr. Smith]

why the hell would i want to know

[TDAS04]

It’s in the way when traveling to literally any of the states surrounding it.

Horrible State.

Weird spelling for Nevada, but okay.

[NOVA Green]

Naturally not my favorite post of the previous poster, but as far as "recent posts" was the first one which caught my eye (w/o going further back in history).

It’s interesting how the pro- vs. anti-gay divide has increasingly correlated with Democrat vs. Republican.  In 2012, Obama carried several counties that simultaneously voted against SSM in Maine and Washington (and some anti-SSM Maryland counties too).  In 2016, the presidential map in Maine correlated entirely with the SSM vote of four years earlier, and almost did so in Washington.  (Maryland was more complicated, due to AAs).  Of the three Romney/pro-SSM counties in the three states in 2012, two flipped for Hillary (Anne Arundel, MD and Whitman, WA), while the other (Fredrick, MD) voted for Biden in 2020.  Shows that the parties are increasingly divided by culture.  Democrats should continue to be on the correct side of these issues, even if they need to better communicate their economic populism to the WWC.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=454562.msg8166175#msg8166175

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

HP= Hunters Point

(Neighborhood in South San Francisco which used to be the site of major naval shipyard and overwhelming African-American with major live expectancy issues due to toxic and hazardous waste in the water supply.

FF= Final Fantasy (Keeping it PG here)

(Addictive computer game which helped launch a whole generate of addicts who kept spending endless amounts of money to buy "exclusive virtual items" so that they could "own" their friends who couldn't afford much more than the basic monthly subscription fees).

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=HP

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=ff




EDIT: Two of the posters above are within the generally accepted Atlas norms, although opinions can vary immensely regarding who falls into which category, which frequently can be very mercurial and differ from day to day depending upon which way the wind blows, and obviously during political season where even during the primaries some Atlas posters might establish permanent grudges because: "Your candidate purple said/did something bad 20 years ago" vs "your candidate in an absolute PoS who wants to destroy the entire world as we know it because they believe in XYZ".

BTW: Welcome to the forum   

[_.]

I would pay good money* to watch CraneHusband go into Hialeah and have lengthy conversations about Fidel Castro with the locals.

* Figure of speech, I would never actually do this

Does the sum include the money for a professional bodyguard?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

1%? Be honest, do you know any of them? I sure don't lol

[Never Made it to Graceland]

I would pay good money* to watch CraneHusband go into Hialeah and have lengthy conversations about Fidel Castro with the locals.

* Figure of speech, I would never actually do this

Does the sum include the money for a professional bodyguard?

I'm really not particularly worried about a bunch of fat guys who don't believe in vaccines or the 2020 election, but it's certainly nice of you to suggest I deserve violence for not bowing down to my my country's hypocritical and obsessive treatment of Cuba.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

This is one of the most beautiful buildings ever erected.

The Ryugyong Hotel is like the personality of a Talk E(l/r)ections user. Big and boastful on the outside, empty and abandoned on the inside.

Not to mention, it's clearly meant to invoke a woman giving birth, which brings to mind the mommy issues many of our website's members have.