Canada WI: Layton vs. Trudeau vs. Harper 2015

[libertpaulian]

Election is the same, only Layton is still alive and is still the NDP leader instead of Mulcair.

How does each party fare?  Do the Tories do worse?  Does the NDP either keep their pre-2015 number of seats or even pilfer a few more?  Is Trudeau PM?  Hung Parliament?

You decide!

Addendum/Edit: Do the Blocs do worse?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The NDP does much better. Very slim Liberal majority.

[Lachi]

NDP would do much better.

If the Liberals didn't recover, I could see Layton becoming the next PM.

[libertpaulian]

NDP would do much better.

If the Liberals didn't recover, I could see Layton becoming the next PM.

What do you (or anyone else) thinks the seat composition would be if the Liberals didn't recover?

[Kingpoleon]

Liberal: 171(-13)
Conservative: 90(-9)
NDP: 64(+20)
Bloc Québécois: 10(+0)
Green: 3(+2)

The amount in parentheses is relative to OTL.

[JoeyOCanada]

Harper still loses. I don't think anything would make him win. I could see an NDP minority government or a very slim Liberal win.

[libertpaulian]

Harper still loses. I don't think anything would make him win. I could see an NDP minority government or a very slim Liberal win.

I agree that Harper was DOA from the start.

I guess my main question is whether we still have PM Trudeau or an NDP upset?

[JoeyOCanada]

Harper still loses. I don't think anything would make him win. I could see an NDP minority government or a very slim Liberal win.

I agree that Harper was DOA from the start.

I guess my main question is whether we still have PM Trudeau or an NDP upset?

I think in the end we still get PM Trudeau. However, there would be a very slight chance that the NDP pull off the upset.

[King of Kensington]

NDP minority I think.  Haven't really run the numbers in this thought experiment.  I think Trudeau would have hard a time displacing Layton.