Maryland

[Virginian87]

Maryland has more Republican and moderate Democrat counties, but the liberal Democratic counties have all the population (Howard, Baltimore, Charles, Prince George's, and Montgomery).  Not surprisingly, these elections control the state.  Moderates could win in Frederick County (which is trending Democratic, due to growing development of Hagerstown, Frederick, Point of Rocks, and Brunswick), Anne Arundel (site of Fort Meade), St. Marys, Calvert, and Allegany (large blue-collar population in Cumberland) Counties.

[Virginian87]

I'm just hoping Dems don't suffer in '06 due to black apathy if the Cardin/Mfume primary gets nasty and Cardin wins.

Do you really think M'fume stands a chance of winning a statewide election?  That type of candidate is usually too much even for the latte liberals, who either stay home or vote Republican in that case.

I would regard Maryland as a true toss-up if Mfume ran. There are enough "(D) is enough" voters to give him a chance, and combined with the fact that the GOP doesn't have any great candidates, he wouldn't get killed statewide. He'd do very bad outside of the big 3 counties, losing ones like Howard that Dems need to do well in. I'm not sure about how good voting is in inner city Baltimore, but his best chance would be hoping that Baltimore turns into Chicago in a political sense. He'd need very high black turnout to win.

Mfume will never even win the nomination simply because no white people will vote for him, and I don't even think that many blacks would vote for him based on his skin color.  He might win Baltimore and Prince Geoge's Counties in the primary.  That's it.  The next senator from Maryland will be, in my opinion, Ben Cardin.

[Virginian87]

Maryland is yet another state living under unjust urban rule.

I would have to agree with you, Philip, though there's no solution.

I guess you could add Illinois and Delaware to that list.

[Virginian87]

Only Hillary had the balls to call bullsh**t on that.

Well, you're right about one thing.  She sure has balls, literally.

Now we could discuss why the upstate economy is so depressed, but that would be pointless.

The problem with upstate New York's economy is the same as the problems with most of the Rust Belt cities.  Heavy industry has fallen from grace.  Have you visited upstate New York, recently?  Schenectady, Syracuse, Rochester, and Buffalo, are full of Old Economy industries that have been in decline due to competition from overseas and have had factories closed due to outsourcing (such as Carrier's air conditioning plant in Syracuse).  Though more and more high-tech industries have been appearing, such as Eastman Kodak and Xerox adding to their large operations in Rochester.  So it might get better eventually.  But for now most of the cities of upstate New York are very blue-collar.

[Virginian87]

Only Hillary had the balls to call bullsh**t on that.

Well, you're right about one thing.  She sure has balls, literally.

Now we could discuss why the upstate economy is so depressed, but that would be pointless.

The problem with upstate New York's economy is the same as the problems with most of the Rust Belt cities.  Heavy industry has fallen from grace.  Have you visited upstate New York, recently?  Schenectady, Syracuse, Rochester, and Buffalo, are full of Old Economy industries that have been in decline due to competition from overseas and have had factories closed due to outsourcing (such as Carrier's air conditioning plant in Syracuse).  Though more and more high-tech industries have been appearing, such as Eastman Kodak and Xerox adding to their large operations in Rochester.  So it might get better eventually.  But for now most of the cities of upstate New York are very blue-collar.

Yes, I've been there lately. It never really recovered from the Bush I recession of '91.

Upstate's problems predate that recession.  It's a structural problem based on the fact that the New York city's dominance of the state imposes a high tax structure on the whole state, and makes it an uncompetitive place to do business.

It's not just because of the recession of '91.  It stems from the overall decline in American manufacturing and heavy industry since the stagflation of the 1970s, looser regulations on trade, and increased foreign competition.  Kind of like what happened to the steel industry.