Maryland

[MaC]

what makes this state so liberal?  I see maps where Delaware and NewJersey vote Republican before it (not that anyone's really all that great at making maps anyways), but really what gives?  Is it one of those one big city (liberal) v. the countryside (conservative, but doesn't have nearly as many people) states or what?

[Sam Spade]

Two main reasons:

High black population (nearly 27%)

Government workers

[Horus]

Its a mix of a large black population in Baltimore city and PG county and a large socially liberal white population in the Baltimore and DC suburbs.

[Kevin]

MD one of the most liberal states ever you can tell that by it's insane taxe's 

[DanielX]

MD one of the most liberal states ever you can tell that by it's insane taxe's 

Suprisingly, I agree with Kevin's idea (if not his spelling or grammar). Man, mom & dad are socked, if you combine Federal, State, and County income taxes (yes, Montgomery County has an Income Tax!) they pay over 40%... property tax is also very high, thankfully we rent.

On the plus side, sales tax (5%) is reasonable, unlike DC's 10%.

As for reasons, it's just about what everyone's mentioned. Maryland's got an almost-Detroit-like (ie largely black, decaying old-industrial) medium-sized city (Baltimore), plus half of DC's suburbs, which are full of government bureaucrats - and many non-whites (blacks, asians, hispanics) too. Together, nearly half of Maryland's population lives in Montgomery County, Prince George's County, or the city of Baltimore, all of which are heavily majority-Democrat. Note that in 2004 the majority of Maryland counties (both in the western Panhandle and the Eastern Shore, plus a few others) voted Republican - but they're mostly rural (with two exceptions: Fredrick and Anne Arundel counties).

[Kevin]

MD's sales tax is also insane because I had to pay 3 dollars for a pack of gum and more than half of the price was sales tax

[Flying Dog]

Its all because of baltimore. Which way Baltimore goes, Maryland goes

[nclib]

Actually, Maryland would have still gone Democratic without Baltimore.

[dazzleman]

Why did Maryland go Republican in 1988?  Was it the Willie Horton factor, that Willie Horton had been released from a jail in Massuchusetts on an unsupervised furlough and traveled to Maryland and raped a woman?

That's the only thing I can think of, as other heavily Democratic states like New York and Massachusetts went back to the Democrats that year after voting Republican in the previous two elections.

[Kevin]

I think once Slick Willie got his hand's on the presidency and other factor's changed Maryland. 

[dazzleman]

I think once Slick Willie got his hand's on the presidency and other factor's changed Maryland. 

But Maryland was one of only six states that voted for Carter in 1980.  Maryland was a heavily Democratic state long before Slick Willie.

[Kevin]

But it really started getting Democratic under Slick Willie.

[dazzleman]

But it really started getting Democratic under Slick Willie.

I agree that Slick Willie made a number of states that were Democratic-leaning states much more heavily Democratic, while ultimately at the same time pushing Republican-leaning states more heavily Republican. 

I believe that Slick Willie is really the author of our current red state-blue state divide, something that was never talked about before 2000.  He made it socially acceptable for sophistocated suburbanites to be Democratic, but at the same time turned more traditional values oriented-voters off to the Democratic party during his second term in particular.

That still doesn't explain why Maryland went Republican in 1988.  If you look at the 1984 results, Maryland had the second-lowest percentage of the vote for Reagan of the states that Reagan carried (Massachusetts was the lowest of the states that Reagan carried).  New York had a higher percentage of the vote for Reagan than Maryland did in 1984.

And yet by 1988, New York flipped to Dukakis, by a fairly small margin, and Maryland voted Republican.  Several other relatively weak Reagan states (Iowa, Hawaii, Massachusetts, to name a few) flipped to Dukakis, but Maryland was not one of them.

I think it may have been anger over the furlough of Willie Horton that did it, but I'm wondering if anybody else shares this same opinion.

[Sam Spade]

But it really started getting Democratic under Slick Willie.

I agree that Slick Willie made a number of states that were Democratic-leaning states much more heavily Democratic, while ultimately at the same time pushing Republican-leaning states more heavily Republican. 

I believe that Slick Willie is really the author of our current red state-blue state divide, something that was never talked about before 2000.  He made it socially acceptable for sophistocated suburbanites to be Democratic, but at the same time turned more traditional values oriented-voters off to the Democratic party during his second term in particular.

That still doesn't explain why Maryland went Republican in 1988.  If you look at the 1984 results, Maryland had the second-lowest percentage of the vote for Reagan of the states that Reagan carried (Massachusetts was the lowest of the states that Reagan carried).  New York had a higher percentage of the vote for Reagan than Maryland did in 1984.

And yet by 1988, New York flipped to Dukakis, by a fairly small margin, and Maryland voted Republican.  Several other relatively weak Reagan states (Iowa, Hawaii, Massachusetts, to name a few) flipped to Dukakis, but Maryland was not one of them.

I think it may have been anger over the furlough of Willie Horton that did it, but I'm wondering if anybody else shares this same opinion.

I think it had more to do with anything else that the Dukakis' campaign had a really bad GOTV effort in the urban cities and that black people were not enthusiastic about his campaign.

Turnout was down in primarily black PG County from 1984, way down in Baltimore City from 1984 and Bush 41 performed well enough in Baltimore County (winning 57%-42%) to carry the state.  Also, during this period Montgomery County was primarily a swing county as the Northeastern suburbs had not made the flip to the Democrats as they would in 1992.  Bush 41 only lost it by 3%.  To put this in comparison, Bush 43 in 2004 lost it by 33%.

Also, remember 1988 was the year Jesse Jackson performed very well in the Democratic primaries and was a major factor till the end.  Black apathy could explained on that count as well.

However, it is strange that Dukakis didn't manage to win the state because he was of Greek ancestry and there are many Greeks in the Baltimore area (one of the things that got Spiro Agnew elected Gov.)

[dazzleman]

I think it had more to do with anything else that the Dukakis' campaign had a really bad GOTV effort in the urban cities and that black people were not enthusiastic about his campaign.

Turnout was down in primarily black PG County from 1984, way down in Baltimore City from 1984 and Bush 41 performed well enough in Baltimore County (winning 57%-42%) to carry the state.  Also, during this period Montgomery County was primarily a swing county as the Northeastern suburbs had not made the flip to the Democrats as they would in 1992.  Bush 41 only lost it by 3%.  To put this in comparison, Bush 43 in 2004 lost it by 33%.

Also, remember 1988 was the year Jesse Jackson performed very well in the Democratic primaries and was a major factor till the end.  Black apathy could explained on that count as well.

However, it is strange that Dukakis didn't manage to win the state because he was of Greek ancestry and there are many Greeks in the Baltimore area (one of the things that got Spiro Agnew elected Gov.)

These are all valid points, but I wonder why they didn't seem to apply to states like New York, where Reagan performed better than Maryland in 1984.

Maybe you hit on something with black apathy.  Maryland has a higher percentage of blacks than New York, and maybe black apathy hit the Democrats harder in Maryland because of that larger share of the population.

What you said about the suburbs is true throughout the northeast.  In 1988, those suburbs were still voting Republican, for the most part.

[Sam Spade]

Maybe you hit on something with black apathy.  Maryland has a higher percentage of blacks than New York, and maybe black apathy hit the Democrats harder in Maryland because of that larger share of the population.

This is probably the most likely answer.

Amusingly, the Dukakis campaign may have had the worst GOTV effort of any Democrat campaign since 1972.

The Mondale GOTV was actually very good.  Of course, many of the voters Mondale got out ended up voting for Reagan, which explained the high vote totals of that race.

[dazzleman]

[

Of course, many of the voters Mondale got out ended up voting for Reagan...

Thanks for a good laugh...

[MaC]

wow, good analysis Sam Spade, dazzleman, Kevin

[dazzleman]

wow, good analysis Sam Spade, dazzleman, Kevin

thanks man..Sam Spade really provided the answer to my question.

[Sam Spade]

wow, good analysis Sam Spade, dazzleman, Kevin

No problem. 

[Akno21]

I'm just hoping Dems don't suffer in '06 due to black apathy if the Cardin/Mfume primary gets nasty and Cardin wins.

[dazzleman]

I'm just hoping Dems don't suffer in '06 due to black apathy if the Cardin/Mfume primary gets nasty and Cardin wins.

Well if they do, it serves them right.  They've stoked the fires of racial resentment and grievance for so long that they've created a monster whereby, if a black candidate loses a primary, black voters take their ball and go home.  This is one of the pitfalls of relying so heavily on an inordinate share of the black vote.

Do you really think M'fume stands a chance of winning a statewide election?  That type of candidate is usually too much even for the latte liberals, who either stay home or vote Republican in that case.

[TeePee4Prez]

I'm just hoping Dems don't suffer in '06 due to black apathy if the Cardin/Mfume primary gets nasty and Cardin wins.

I can see a situation like this happening in Philadelphia come 2007.  Say Jon Saidel or John Dougherty beats up on Chaka Fattah or Janine Blackwell.  Blacks might stay home and I hate to say it Frank Rizzo Jr. could emerge as victor. The name Rizzo if some may recall is quite a popular name in the white parts of Philadelphia. 

[Bandit3 the Worker]

what makes this state so liberal?

It isn't.

[dazzleman]

I'm just hoping Dems don't suffer in '06 due to black apathy if the Cardin/Mfume primary gets nasty and Cardin wins.

I can see a situation like this happening in Philadelphia come 2007.  Say Jon Saidel or John Dougherty beats up on Chaka Fattah or Janine Blackwell.  Blacks might stay home and I hate to say it Frank Rizzo Jr. could emerge as victor. The name Rizzo if some may recall is quite a popular name in the white parts of Philadelphia. 

This type of thing is a big part of the reason the Democrats have lost the last 3 mayoral elections in New York, and appear likely to lose their fourth straight one this year.

In my opinion, it serves them right.  Live by the sword, die by the sword.