MA Dem Primary: Who will try and defeat Baker?

[McGovernForPrez]

So the three main contenders are:

Setti Warren: Mayor of Newton,

Jay Gonzalez: Former Secretary of Administration and Finance

Bob Massey: Environmental activist and entrepreneur and former Lt Gov nominee on the ticket with Mark Roosevelt.

My personal favorite of the three is Bob Massey. He's extremely well credentialed and has had experience in both the private and public sector. His politics are highly progressive, which he'll probably need to defeat Baker, who's popular with moderate Democrats here in the state. He also has experience running against a popular incumbent Governor before and will be taking that experience to his campaign against Baker. Don't think he's favored in the primary unfortunately. It'll probably come down to Warren and Gonzales.

[PragmaticPopulist]

None of them can probably beat Baker. He's too well-liked, and Massachusetts has a long history of electing moderate Republican Governors. Baker was among the first Republicans in the country to openly denounce Trump.

[JMT]

My personal favorite in the primary is Setti Warren. He's a young candidate who I think can appeal to both the progressive wing and "establishment" wing of the Democratic party. He has experience in electoral politics, having been the Mayor of Newton. He also has placed a strong emphasis on improving public transportation in Massachusetts, and important issue for me. So I will be voting for Setti Warren, but I also like the other Democratic candidates. Unfortunately, I don't think any of the candidates have a great chance of unseating Baker in 2018. But I do think it is possible considering the national political mood and the strong Democratic lean in MA. While Baker looks safe for now, a lot can change between now and election day.

[McGovernForPrez]

None of them can probably beat Baker. He's too well-liked, and Massachusetts has a long history of electing moderate Republican Governors. Baker was among the first Republicans in the country to openly denounce Trump.

I'm making this thread about the primary to see who people thing will win. He actually hasn't openly denounced Trump which is a problem some MA Dems have with him. He's generally kept his head low, only condemning Trump's most heinous actions. MA is Likely R, not Safe R. It's impossible to be safe R in MA anymore. I can guarantee he won't have a Bill Weld style victory, MA is a different state than back then. Democrats in MA should have a floor of 40%. I might end up voting for Baker, but he is by no means safe. Democrats across the country are galvanized, and if anything will do Baker in its that. There's also a budget crisis right now which many blame on Baker. If any of the three turn out to be strong candidates then he might be in trouble.

[Kingpoleon]

Setti Warren, with a running mate like Daniel F. Conley, Marty Walsh, or Juliette Kayyem, could probably get up to 44-46% if he does very well and it's a Democratic wave.

[McGovernForPrez]

Setti Warren, with a running mate like Daniel F. Conley, Marty Walsh, or Juliette Kayyem, could probably get up to 44-46% if he does very well and it's a Democratic wave.

Only thing about Warren is that he might remind people of the disappointing Patrick administration. Also Newton might be the MA equivalent of the "coastal elite". To me expecting anybody from Newton to know how to deal with income inequality is a joke.

[BuckeyeNut]

There's a lot to a name, so Warren might benefit from running in the same year as Liz.

[Kingpoleon]

Setti Warren, with a running mate like Daniel F. Conley, Marty Walsh, or Juliette Kayyem, could probably get up to 44-46% if he does very well and it's a Democratic wave.

Only thing about Warren is that he might remind people of the disappointing Patrick administration. Also Newton might be the MA equivalent of the "coastal elite". To me expecting anybody from Newton to know how to deal with income inequality is a joke.

Setti Warren has no connection to Deval Patrick.

[Classic Conservative]

Setti Warren, with a running mate like Daniel F. Conley, Marty Walsh, or Juliette Kayyem, could probably get up to 44-46% if he does very well and it's a Democratic wave.

Only thing about Warren is that he might remind people of the disappointing Patrick administration. Also Newton might be the MA equivalent of the "coastal elite". To me expecting anybody from Newton to know how to deal with income inequality is a joke.

Setti Warren has no connection to Deval Patrick.

Setti Warren has no connection to the administration but he reminds everybody of Patrick in the way that they are somewhat similar with regards to policy and he's a Patrick 2.0. Somebody from Newtown or the surrounding areas whether it's Wellesley or other towns running on income inequality is a joke.

[Kingpoleon]

Setti Warren, with a running mate like Daniel F. Conley, Marty Walsh, or Juliette Kayyem, could probably get up to 44-46% if he does very well and it's a Democratic wave.

Only thing about Warren is that he might remind people of the disappointing Patrick administration. Also Newton might be the MA equivalent of the "coastal elite". To me expecting anybody from Newton to know how to deal with income inequality is a joke.

Setti Warren has no connection to Deval Patrick.

Setti Warren has no connection to the administration but he reminds everybody of Patrick in the way that they are somewhat similar with regards to policy and he's a Patrick 2.0. Somebody from Newtown or the surrounding areas whether it's Wellesley or other towns running on income inequality is a joke.

Honestly, this just comes across as racism.

[McGovernForPrez]

Setti Warren, with a running mate like Daniel F. Conley, Marty Walsh, or Juliette Kayyem, could probably get up to 44-46% if he does very well and it's a Democratic wave.

Only thing about Warren is that he might remind people of the disappointing Patrick administration. Also Newton might be the MA equivalent of the "coastal elite". To me expecting anybody from Newton to know how to deal with income inequality is a joke.

Setti Warren has no connection to Deval Patrick.

Setti Warren has no connection to the administration but he reminds everybody of Patrick in the way that they are somewhat similar with regards to policy and he's a Patrick 2.0. Somebody from Newtown or the surrounding areas whether it's Wellesley or other towns running on income inequality is a joke.

Honestly, this just comes across as racism.

Part of it will be, but if you can't see the similarities between a young charismatic black Democrat running as a change to the status quo, to Devail Patrick's 2006 campaign your lying to yourself. I also honestly thought Setti Warren was white up until a few weeks ago when I visited his website. That aspect has more to do with the fact that he's from Newton, an extremely well to do cit. My gut reaction when hearing "Newton Democrat" is to think of an affluent white guy who gives lip-service to the type of actual issues liberal Democrats care about. Setti Warren has literally never had to be concerned with income inequality during his career as Mayor. Warren has a lot of challenges as candidate than people outside the state recognize. Also agree with the guy who said that him sharing a name with Ldub might help him.

[Sir Tiki]

Setti Warren has literally never had to be concerned with income inequality during his career as Mayor.

In all fairness and as a former Newton resident, I feel compelled to mention that Setti Warren did in fact spearhead a study to address Newton's growing income inequality two years ago:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.newtonma.gov/gov/health_n_human_services/economic_growth_for_all.asp

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https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/regionals/west/2016/10/07/newton-partners-with-boston-college-address-income-inequality/VU47PZFhJ0XvmXdutCOUyL/story.html

Whether or not you believe that he's the best standard-bearer to drive the message of income inequality is of course debatable, but credit where credit is due he has at least stared a conversation about it within the city, which is more than I can say for his predecessors.

[Lechasseur]

None of them can probably beat Baker. He's too well-liked, and Massachusetts has a long history of electing moderate Republican Governors. Baker was among the first Republicans in the country to openly denounce Trump.

Agreed

[JMT]

Setti Warren, with a running mate like Daniel F. Conley, Marty Walsh, or Juliette Kayyem, could probably get up to 44-46% if he does very well and it's a Democratic wave.

No way Marty Walsh runs for Lieutenant Governor. It would be a huge step down from Mayor of Boston, and Walsh and Baker get along pretty well. I could see Walsh running for Governor or Senate some day, but not Lt. Gov.

I could see Juliette Kayyem running for Lieutenant Governor, however. She's never held elective office but clearly wants to at some point (she did briefly run for Governor in 2014), and Lieutenant Governor would be a good place to start. It could also be beneficial to have a woman on the ticket, considering Baker's Lt. Gov is also a woman (Karyn Polito). I would be really happy with a Setti Warren/Juliette Kayyem ticket and would enthusiastically vote for them.

[Progressive]

What are people's thoughts on Bob Massie?

[_]

Warren appears to have the best shot out of all of these 3, but still that's not much of an improvement.  Thankfully Healey isn't running, otherwise this could become tossup.

[BuckeyeNut]

I get MA has a long trend of electing moderate Republican governors, but in this age of polarization, how is Warren going to get +60% while Baker gets to 50%+1?

[JMT]

I get MA has a long trend of electing moderate Republican governors, but in this age of polarization, how is Warren going to get +60% while Baker gets to 50%+1?

I too will be interested in seeing Baker's margin of victory and Warren's margin of victory, but I do think it's possible both of them could win by double digits (that seems pretty likely at this point). I know the country is polarized, but that does not always translate to down-ballot races (especially governor's races). Take, for example, West Virginia in 2016. Donald Trump won the state by 42 percentage points, a massive victory. On the same day, Jim Justice (a Democrat) won the governor's race by 7 points. That's a 49 point swing in the direction of the other party (MA won't have that large of a swing). So just because one party dominates at the federal level does not mean that same party will win down ballot.

[McGovernForPrez]

What are people's thoughts on Bob Massie?

I'm a huge fan of Massie and plan on volunteering for his campaign once primary season starts up. I think he could do really well with Warren on the top of the ticket since both have such strong left wing messages. I don't think MA Dems can defeat Baker by trying to "re-run Devaul Patrick" in one shape or another.

Just wish he had more events in Boston smh.

[McGovernForPrez]

I get MA has a long trend of electing moderate Republican governors, but in this age of polarization, how is Warren going to get +60% while Baker gets to 50%+1?

It's the magic of wealthy MA Dems. Also our state legislature which is super majority Democrats have been utterly incompetent as of late. I nearly considered voting for Baker and I come from the more Bernie-ish wing of the party. If he hadn't suggested cutting Medicare and MBTA funding I'd probably still be onboard with him, but I can't allow major cuts to important social programs.

[Sir Mohamed]

Probably the best recruitment for Democrats at the moment would be John Kerry. He's the only one I can see make this race a toss-up. Even if Trump is at 30% approval, Governor Baker is still headed for a relatively easy reelection. However, I'd be surprised if Kerry enters the political arena again.

[McGovernForPrez]

Probably the best recruitment for Democrats at the moment would be John Kerry. He's the only one I can see make this race a toss-up. Even if Trump is at 30% approval, Governor Baker is still headed for a relatively easy reelection. However, I'd be surprised if Kerry enters the political arena again.

There's no chance Kerry is gonna run. He's not even a potential recruit in my mind. I also think you highly overrated Baker. With Liz Warren on the ballot in a Trump midterm Dems here will have a really really high floor. At best this race is lean Republican. I keep saying this, but Bill Weld is not gonna happen again here, the conditions aren't right. Democrats have a floor of about 45%. If I had to order the candidates right now it'd go Massie>Warren>Gonzales imo.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Coakley 2018: Third Time's a Charm

[McGovernForPrez]

Coakley 2018: Third Time's a Charm

If Coakley is the nominee the race is actually safe R. Even most staunch Clinton defenders around here despise Coakley. I'd vote Baker in a heartbeat over her.

[Figueira]

I get MA has a long trend of electing moderate Republican governors, but in this age of polarization, how is Warren going to get +60% while Baker gets to 50%+1?

Polarization still isn't that strong on the gubernatorial level in most states. Also a lot of people will vote for any incumbent Senator who isn't being seriously challenged. Warren might be an exception to this because she's high-profile and polarizing, but I wouldn't be shocked if she breaks 65%.