How safe is Pete Sessions in 2018?

[Crumpets]

Pete Sessions represents the ancestrally-Republican district TX-32, located in the northern suburbs of Dallas. It's cook PVI is R+5, but Clinton won the district by three points, 49-46. That's not to mention the earful he got at his town hall going all-in on the AHCA. In other words, it looks to me like an even less-safe version of GA-6, with an incumbent who has a voting record to tie him to.

[Hindsight was 2020]

If Mike Rawlings runs Sessions is in trouble

[100% pro-life no matter what]

With an incumbent running, this is even more safe than GA-6.  The same goes for Culberson and any of the other shockingly-close-in-2016 Texas districts.

[Roronoa D. Law]

The legislature could easily redraw his district.

Didn't Texas just get sued for gerrymandering?

[Vosem]

Pure tossup, given the swings in GA-6 (a similar area) and possible differences in turnout. If actually forced to say, very small Tilt D. Improvement on the level of Ossoff's is enough for a Democratic win here, and turnout was higher than usual midterm turnout in GA-6, meaning the Democratic enthusiasm gap is likely to mean more here, but the margins are so narrow that small shifts in popular opinion either way could make the difference. There will certainly be a credible Democratic candidate here.

[GlobeSoc]

Likely R

[Virginiá]

I think he is vulnerable, but my gut says he hangs on. There is evidence that the swings against Republicans in some of these suburban districts are in fact sticking, and Democratic enthusiasm is putting them into play, but that doesn't automatically make them straight toss-ups.

At the end of the day, Sessions is still a long-time incumbent in a district that only became vulnerable on paper last year. Democrats are really going to need to run some sharp candidates for these districts.

[morgieb]

I'd have it around Tilt/Lean R. Any seat that Hillary won is vulnerable by default, and this is more Democratic than GA-06 is, but a strong candidate is required and I don't know if we have the infrastructure required to win the seat.

[Xing]

I don't see him losing. If he decided to retire, then this seat would almost certainly become competitive.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I was born, raised, and have lived in this district for all of my life, and I support Collin Allred, but not a chance in hell Sessions loses, sorry. Only way this district could ever flip is if Sessions leaves, and a blue wave year the size of 2008 occurs at the same time, and even then it's a maybe. I might dare to even say that Culberson's district is comparably more vunerable than this one. But he stays too.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I am quite skeptical this actually flips. Sessions is an entrenched, longtime incumbent R well-attuned to his district and i doubt the AHCA vote would cost him his seat by itself.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My mom has met him when he came to tour a health facility that she worked at a couple years back, and she described him as one of the most slimy and least sincere individuals she had ever met, she then subsequently voted against him, not that it made a difference because of his entrenchment.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was born, raised, and have lived in this district for all of my life, and I support Collin Allred, but not a chance in hell Sessions loses, sorry. Only way this district could ever flip is if Sessions leaves, and a blue wave year the size of 2008 occurs at the same time, and even then it's a maybe. I might dare to even say that Culberson's district is comparably more vunerable than this one. But he stays too.

2008 was his last close race. 2004 was the only other one which was close for him I think.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I was born, raised, and have lived in this district for all of my life, and I support Collin Allred, but not a chance in hell Sessions loses, sorry. Only way this district could ever flip is if Sessions leaves, and a blue wave year the size of 2008 occurs at the same time, and even then it's a maybe. I might dare to even say that Culberson's district is comparably more vunerable than this one. But he stays too.

2008 was his last close race. 2004 was the only other one which was close for him I think.

57-41 is not close, but comparatively and here, I guess... 2004 was closer, but that was against Martin Frost, so that only partially counts.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was born, raised, and have lived in this district for all of my life, and I support Collin Allred, but not a chance in hell Sessions loses, sorry. Only way this district could ever flip is if Sessions leaves, and a blue wave year the size of 2008 occurs at the same time, and even then it's a maybe. I might dare to even say that Culberson's district is comparably more vunerable than this one. But he stays too.

2008 was his last close race. 2004 was the only other one which was close for him I think.

57-41 is not close, but comparatively and here, I guess... 2004 was closer, but that was against Martin Frost, so that only partially counts.

Well true. I meant 'close' in both comparitive and absolute terms. And history shows that Stinky Pete is unlikely to lose, ever.
It's the Park Cities area that's the real anchor of the GOP lean of the seat. It's extremely richie richie Republican territory. If both University Park and HIghland park were removed, the Clinton margin in the seat probably doubles.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I was born, raised, and have lived in this district for all of my life, and I support Collin Allred, but not a chance in hell Sessions loses, sorry. Only way this district could ever flip is if Sessions leaves, and a blue wave year the size of 2008 occurs at the same time, and even then it's a maybe. I might dare to even say that Culberson's district is comparably more vunerable than this one. But he stays too.

2008 was his last close race. 2004 was the only other one which was close for him I think.

57-41 is not close, but comparatively and here, I guess... 2004 was closer, but that was against Martin Frost, so that only partially counts.

Well true. I meant 'close' in both comparitive and absolute terms. And history shows that Stinky Pete is unlikely to lose, ever.
It's the Park Cities area that's the real anchor of the GOP lean of the seat. It's extremely richie richie Republican territory. If both University Park and HIghland park were removed, the Clinton margin in the seat probably doubles.

That and Preston Hollow too. And the northeastern part. I'm in the red part of the district, just a little north of preston hollow.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was born, raised, and have lived in this district for all of my life, and I support Collin Allred, but not a chance in hell Sessions loses, sorry. Only way this district could ever flip is if Sessions leaves, and a blue wave year the size of 2008 occurs at the same time, and even then it's a maybe. I might dare to even say that Culberson's district is comparably more vunerable than this one. But he stays too.

2008 was his last close race. 2004 was the only other one which was close for him I think.

57-41 is not close, but comparatively and here, I guess... 2004 was closer, but that was against Martin Frost, so that only partially counts.

Well true. I meant 'close' in both comparitive and absolute terms. And history shows that Stinky Pete is unlikely to lose, ever.
It's the Park Cities area that's the real anchor of the GOP lean of the seat. It's extremely richie richie Republican territory. If both University Park and HIghland park were removed, the Clinton margin in the seat probably doubles.

That and Preston Hollow too. And the northeastern part. I'm in the red part of the district, just a little north of preston hollow.

Ah, yes, that too! Preston Hollow seems to be where GWB lives, and all. Just still more evidence that it's country-club-republican-land.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I was born, raised, and have lived in this district for all of my life, and I support Collin Allred, but not a chance in hell Sessions loses, sorry. Only way this district could ever flip is if Sessions leaves, and a blue wave year the size of 2008 occurs at the same time, and even then it's a maybe. I might dare to even say that Culberson's district is comparably more vunerable than this one. But he stays too.

2008 was his last close race. 2004 was the only other one which was close for him I think.

57-41 is not close, but comparatively and here, I guess... 2004 was closer, but that was against Martin Frost, so that only partially counts.

Well true. I meant 'close' in both comparitive and absolute terms. And history shows that Stinky Pete is unlikely to lose, ever.
It's the Park Cities area that's the real anchor of the GOP lean of the seat. It's extremely richie richie Republican territory. If both University Park and HIghland park were removed, the Clinton margin in the seat probably doubles.

That and Preston Hollow too. And the northeastern part. I'm in the red part of the district, just a little north of preston hollow.

Ah, yes, that too! Preston Hollow seems to be where GWB lives, and all. Just still more evidence that it's country-club-republican-land.

Definately. The people who turned this thing blue on the presidential level were suburban moms and the high hispanic turnout.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think in some places in the Park Cities, median income breaks 100k.
http://statisticalatlas.com/congressional-district/Texas/District-32/Overview

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think in some places in the Park Cities, median income breaks 100k.
http://statisticalatlas.com/congressional-district/Texas/District-32/Overview

For sure. It is the most conservative and homogenous area in the county, all you will see are mcmansions, mansions, small homes worth tons, boutiques that make whole foods look affordable, land rovers, rampant drug usage in the highschool from rich parents, fancy restaurants with food I cannot pronounce, and everyone dressed the same.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In general it's kind of a fallacy to assume Clinton district=automatically a winnable one for House Dems. 2016 was weird. TX-32 is still dominated by class-driven patterns. And these rich and upper-middle class people who vote Republican aren't going to stop doing so overnight just because Trump was nominated and elected. They still feel a connection to the Republican brand. Ossoff did well in GA-06, amazingly close, but then again, there was no incumbent on the ballot. Sessions is a country-club republican himself and well aligned with Republican voters in his seat. Hard to see them abondoning him.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

In general it's kind of a fallacy to assume Clinton district=automatically a winnable one for House Dems. 2016 was weird. TX-32 is still dominated by class-driven patterns. And these rich and upper-middle class people who vote Republican aren't going to stop doing so overnight just because Trump was nominated and elected. They still feel a connection to the Republican brand. Ossoff did well in GA-06, amazingly close, but then again, there was no incumbent on the ballot. Sessions is a country-club republican himself and well aligned with Republican voters in his seat. Hard to see them abondoning him.

Not a winnable race, but still blue in comparison to your district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think in some places in the Park Cities, median income breaks 100k.
http://statisticalatlas.com/congressional-district/Texas/District-32/Overview

For sure. It is the most conservative and homogenous area in the county, all you will see are mcmansions, mansions, small homes worth tons, boutiques that make whole foods look affordable, land rovers, rampant drug usage in the highschool from rich parents, fancy restaurants with food I cannot pronounce, and everyone dressed the same.

For what's it worth, Northern Dallas County is the core of the territory represented by the sole Republican on the County board, MIke Cantrell. The rest of the seats are gerrymandered in favor of Democrats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In general it's kind of a fallacy to assume Clinton district=automatically a winnable one for House Dems. 2016 was weird. TX-32 is still dominated by class-driven patterns. And these rich and upper-middle class people who vote Republican aren't going to stop doing so overnight just because Trump was nominated and elected. They still feel a connection to the Republican brand. Ossoff did well in GA-06, amazingly close, but then again, there was no incumbent on the ballot. Sessions is a country-club republican himself and well aligned with Republican voters in his seat. Hard to see them abondoning him.

Not a winnable race, but still blue in comparison to your district.

Yes.
I think the best value a good, strong campaign in TX-32 would have, is that it stretches R resources. Let's just nominate Colin and see the Rs sweat, spending money they would have spent elsewhere (esp. TX-23).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

In general it's kind of a fallacy to assume Clinton district=automatically a winnable one for House Dems. 2016 was weird. TX-32 is still dominated by class-driven patterns. And these rich and upper-middle class people who vote Republican aren't going to stop doing so overnight just because Trump was nominated and elected. They still feel a connection to the Republican brand. Ossoff did well in GA-06, amazingly close, but then again, there was no incumbent on the ballot. Sessions is a country-club republican himself and well aligned with Republican voters in his seat. Hard to see them abondoning him.

Not a winnable race, but still blue in comparison to your district.

Yes.
I think the best value a good, strong campaign in TX-32 would have, is that it stretches R resources. Let's just nominate Colin and see the Rs sweat, spending money they would have spent elsewhere (esp. TX-23).

Tilt R/Hurd in 23, but definitely winnable, a younger moderate pro life hispanic dem should do the trick.