Independent Kasich campaign?

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

What do ya'll think of this scenario?

Democrats: Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ)/ Congressman Joaquin Castro (D-TX) 217 EVs 24% PV
Republicans: President Donald Trump (R-NY)/ Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) 83 EVs 22.5% PV
Independent Moderates: Former Governor John Kasich (R-OH)/ Former Governor John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 101 EVs 22% PV
Democratic Socialists: Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT)/ Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) 137 EVs 21% PV
Libertarians: Senator Rand Paul (R-KY)/ Justin Amash (R-MI) 0 EVs 10.5% PV
There was brutal infighting within both parties as Trumps scandals worsen (he is impeached over obstruction of justice after Democrats take the house in 2018 and is acquitted by a two vote margin) , the AHCA passes and result in an even larger increase in premiums and millions unable to afford coverage, the economy slows down to a halt as a recession is pending, Trump invades Iran and Syria, and a divisive primaries result in third party bids. Kasich primaries Trump as a moderate centrist option, and Rand Paul runs as a libertarian leaner and both lost handily to Trump. The Democratic primaries begin with 20 candidates which later ends as a contest Bernie and Booker after Super Tuesday. Bernie represents the progressive wing and the WWC while Booker goes after black and brown voters. Bernie ends with with a small delegate lead, but Booker's Super PACs bribe most superdelegates and delegates of states won by other candidates. Booker wins the Democratic nomination on the second round of voting, and Bernie storms out of the convention hall and announces his bid for the White House the following morning. The general election campaigns are brutal, but satisfying for voters as 40 million adults register to vote for the first time as people realize that there will be no wasted votes in any state this election. Trump enters the general election with a 19% approval rating due to the large casualties in his incompetently fought wars and orders the troops to shoot thousands of protesters during the Labor Day anti-war protests of 2020 across America in which 20 million Americans participated in as well as continued turmoil in Congress, and race relations continue to spiral out of control. The biggest surprise on election day was when Trump reached 4th place in the Electoral College, the House of Representatives must choose between Booker, Sanders, and Kasich. Congressional Democrats split between Booker and Sanders while Kasich narrowly wins with the hesitant support of most Republicans as some far-right Republicans abstain from voting. Kasich is later inaugurated and must re-unify the country as he pledges to work with the Democratic controlled congress to combat the collapsing economy and end the wars.

[Lord Admirale]

What do ya'll think of this scenario?

Democrats: Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ)/ Congressman Joaquin Castro (D-TX) 217 EVs 24% PV
Republicans: President Donald Trump (R-NY)/ Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) 83 EVs 22.5% PV
Independent Moderates: Former Governor John Kasich (R-OH)/ Former Governor John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 101 EVs 22% PV
Democratic Socialists: Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT)/ Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) 137 EVs 21% PV
Libertarians: Senator Rand Paul (R-KY)/ Justin Amash (R-MI) 0 EVs 10.5% PV
There was brutal infighting within both parties as Trumps scandals worsen (he is impeached over obstruction of justice after Democrats take the house in 2018 and is acquitted by a two vote margin) , the AHCA passes and result in an even larger increase in premiums and millions unable to afford coverage, the economy slows down to a halt as a recession is pending, Trump invades Iran and Syria, and a divisive primaries result in third party bids. Kasich primaries Trump as a moderate centrist option, and Rand Paul runs as a libertarian leaner and both lost handily to Trump. The Democratic primaries begin with 20 candidates which later ends as a contest Bernie and Booker after Super Tuesday. Bernie represents the progressive wing and the WWC while Booker goes after black and brown voters. Bernie ends with with a small delegate lead, but Booker's Super PACs bribe most superdelegates and delegates of states won by other candidates. Booker wins the Democratic nomination on the second round of voting, and Bernie storms out of the convention hall and announces his bid for the White House the following morning. The general election campaigns are brutal, but satisfying for voters as 40 million adults register to vote for the first time as people realize that there will be no wasted votes in any state this election. Trump enters the general election with a 19% approval rating due to the large casualties in his incompetently fought wars and orders the troops to shoot thousands of protesters during the Labor Day anti-war protests of 2020 across America in which 20 million Americans participated in as well as continued turmoil in Congress, and race relations continue to spiral out of control. The biggest surprise on election day was when Trump reached 4th place in the Electoral College, the House of Representatives must choose between Booker, Sanders, and Kasich. Congressional Democrats split between Booker and Sanders while Kasich narrowly wins with the hesitant support of most Republicans as some far-right Republicans abstain from voting. Kasich is later inaugurated and must re-unify the country as he pledges to work with the Democratic controlled congress to combat the collapsing economy and end the wars.

No. Sanders wouldn't win any states besides Vermont, Hawaii, and Massachusetts.

[MarkD]

What do ya'll think of this scenario?

Democrats: Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ)/ Congressman Joaquin Castro (D-TX) 217 EVs 24% PV
Republicans: President Donald Trump (R-NY)/ Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) 83 EVs 22.5% PV
Independent Moderates: Former Governor John Kasich (R-OH)/ Former Governor John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 101 EVs 22% PV
Democratic Socialists: Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT)/ Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) 137 EVs 21% PV
Libertarians: Senator Rand Paul (R-KY)/ Justin Amash (R-MI) 0 EVs 10.5% PV
There was brutal infighting within both parties as Trumps scandals worsen (he is impeached over obstruction of justice after Democrats take the house in 2018 and is acquitted by a two vote margin) , the AHCA passes and result in an even larger increase in premiums and millions unable to afford coverage, the economy slows down to a halt as a recession is pending, Trump invades Iran and Syria, and a divisive primaries result in third party bids. Kasich primaries Trump as a moderate centrist option, and Rand Paul runs as a libertarian leaner and both lost handily to Trump. The Democratic primaries begin with 20 candidates which later ends as a contest Bernie and Booker after Super Tuesday. Bernie represents the progressive wing and the WWC while Booker goes after black and brown voters. Bernie ends with with a small delegate lead, but Booker's Super PACs bribe most superdelegates and delegates of states won by other candidates. Booker wins the Democratic nomination on the second round of voting, and Bernie storms out of the convention hall and announces his bid for the White House the following morning. The general election campaigns are brutal, but satisfying for voters as 40 million adults register to vote for the first time as people realize that there will be no wasted votes in any state this election. Trump enters the general election with a 19% approval rating due to the large casualties in his incompetently fought wars and orders the troops to shoot thousands of protesters during the Labor Day anti-war protests of 2020 across America in which 20 million Americans participated in as well as continued turmoil in Congress, and race relations continue to spiral out of control. The biggest surprise on election day was when Trump reached 4th place in the Electoral College, the House of Representatives must choose between Booker, Sanders, and Kasich. Congressional Democrats split between Booker and Sanders while Kasich narrowly wins with the hesitant support of most Republicans as some far-right Republicans abstain from voting. Kasich is later inaugurated and must re-unify the country as he pledges to work with the Democratic controlled congress to combat the collapsing economy and end the wars.

What a fascinating, morbid, but plausible story. I can see how Trump's presidency could result in so much turmoil.
I see two things wrong:
1) Maine can't split its EC votes 3 ways like that. Can it? You've got what I presume to be ME-01 voting by a plurality for Sanders/Gabbard, ME-02 voting by a plurality for Trump/Pence, but ME-AL voting by a plurality for Kasich/Hickenlooper? That does not make sense.
2) I can only county 117 EC votes for Sanders/Hickenlooper, but 121 EC votes for Kasich/Hickenlooper. If PA were light green instead of light yellow, then your numbers would be correct.

[hueylong]

Reads like something out of the House of Cards writers' room.

[Kingpoleon]

What do ya'll think of this scenario?

Democrats: Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ)/ Congressman Joaquin Castro (D-TX) 217 EVs 24% PV
Republicans: President Donald Trump (R-NY)/ Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) 83 EVs 22.5% PV
Independent Moderates: Former Governor John Kasich (R-OH)/ Former Governor John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 101 EVs 22% PV
Democratic Socialists: Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT)/ Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) 137 EVs 21% PV
Libertarians: Senator Rand Paul (R-KY)/ Justin Amash (R-MI) 0 EVs 10.5% PV
There was brutal infighting within both parties as Trumps scandals worsen (he is impeached over obstruction of justice after Democrats take the house in 2018 and is acquitted by a two vote margin) , the AHCA passes and result in an even larger increase in premiums and millions unable to afford coverage, the economy slows down to a halt as a recession is pending, Trump invades Iran and Syria, and a divisive primaries result in third party bids. Kasich primaries Trump as a moderate centrist option, and Rand Paul runs as a libertarian leaner and both lost handily to Trump. The Democratic primaries begin with 20 candidates which later ends as a contest Bernie and Booker after Super Tuesday. Bernie represents the progressive wing and the WWC while Booker goes after black and brown voters. Bernie ends with with a small delegate lead, but Booker's Super PACs bribe most superdelegates and delegates of states won by other candidates. Booker wins the Democratic nomination on the second round of voting, and Bernie storms out of the convention hall and announces his bid for the White House the following morning. The general election campaigns are brutal, but satisfying for voters as 40 million adults register to vote for the first time as people realize that there will be no wasted votes in any state this election. Trump enters the general election with a 19% approval rating due to the large casualties in his incompetently fought wars and orders the troops to shoot thousands of protesters during the Labor Day anti-war protests of 2020 across America in which 20 million Americans participated in as well as continued turmoil in Congress, and race relations continue to spiral out of control. The biggest surprise on election day was when Trump reached 4th place in the Electoral College, the House of Representatives must choose between Booker, Sanders, and Kasich. Congressional Democrats split between Booker and Sanders while Kasich narrowly wins with the hesitant support of most Republicans as some far-right Republicans abstain from voting. Kasich is later inaugurated and must re-unify the country as he pledges to work with the Democratic controlled congress to combat the collapsing economy and end the wars.

What a fascinating, morbid, but plausible story. I can see how Trump's presidency could result in so much turmoil.
I see two things wrong:
1) Maine can't split its EC votes 3 ways like that. Can it? You've got what I presume to be ME-01 voting by a plurality for Sanders/Gabbard, ME-02 voting by a plurality for Trump/Pence, but ME-AL voting by a plurality for Kasich/Hickenlooper? That does not make sense.
2) I can only county 117 EC votes for Sanders/Hickenlooper, but 121 EC votes for Kasich/Hickenlooper. If PA were light green instead of light yellow, then your numbers would be correct.

Sure Maine can.

ME-1:
Sanders/Gabbard: 25%
Kasich/Hickenlooper: 24%
Trump/Pence: 20%

ME-2:
Trump/Pence: 25%
Kasich/Hickenlooper: 24%
Sanders/Gabbard: 20%

With that result, Kasich/Hickenlooper wins the state with 24% of the vote.

[Mr. Morden]

1) Maine can't split its EC votes 3 ways like that. Can it? You've got what I presume to be ME-01 voting by a plurality for Sanders/Gabbard, ME-02 voting by a plurality for Trump/Pence, but ME-AL voting by a plurality for Kasich/Hickenlooper? That does not make sense.

It's mathematically possible, albeit very unlikely.  Imagine this scenario, for example:

CD1:
Sanders 36%
Kasich 34%
Trump 30%

CD2:
Trump 36%
Kasich 34%
Sanders 30%

You can then average the two CDs to get a rough estimate of the statewide totals, which would be:
Kasich 34%
Sanders 33%
Trump 33%

So Kasich wins statewide, despite coming in second in both CDs.

[TheSaint250]

1) Maine can't split its EC votes 3 ways like that. Can it? You've got what I presume to be ME-01 voting by a plurality for Sanders/Gabbard, ME-02 voting by a plurality for Trump/Pence, but ME-AL voting by a plurality for Kasich/Hickenlooper? That does not make sense.

It's mathematically possible, albeit very unlikely.  Imagine this scenario, for example:

CD1:
Sanders 36%
Kasich 34%
Trump 30%

CD2:
Trump 36%
Kasich 34%
Sanders 30%

You can then average the two CDs to get a rough estimate of the statewide totals, which would be:
Kasich 34%
Sanders 33%
Trump 33%

So Kasich wins statewide, despite coming in second in both CDs.

No joke I thought this wasn't possible.  Thank you for proving this to me lol.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

What do ya'll think of this scenario?

Democrats: Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ)/ Congressman Joaquin Castro (D-TX) 217 EVs 24% PV
Republicans: President Donald Trump (R-NY)/ Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) 83 EVs 22.5% PV
Independent Moderates: Former Governor John Kasich (R-OH)/ Former Governor John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 101 EVs 22% PV
Democratic Socialists: Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT)/ Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) 137 EVs 21% PV
Libertarians: Senator Rand Paul (R-KY)/ Justin Amash (R-MI) 0 EVs 10.5% PV
There was brutal infighting within both parties as Trumps scandals worsen (he is impeached over obstruction of justice after Democrats take the house in 2018 and is acquitted by a two vote margin) , the AHCA passes and result in an even larger increase in premiums and millions unable to afford coverage, the economy slows down to a halt as a recession is pending, Trump invades Iran and Syria, and a divisive primaries result in third party bids. Kasich primaries Trump as a moderate centrist option, and Rand Paul runs as a libertarian leaner and both lost handily to Trump. The Democratic primaries begin with 20 candidates which later ends as a contest Bernie and Booker after Super Tuesday. Bernie represents the progressive wing and the WWC while Booker goes after black and brown voters. Bernie ends with with a small delegate lead, but Booker's Super PACs bribe most superdelegates and delegates of states won by other candidates. Booker wins the Democratic nomination on the second round of voting, and Bernie storms out of the convention hall and announces his bid for the White House the following morning. The general election campaigns are brutal, but satisfying for voters as 40 million adults register to vote for the first time as people realize that there will be no wasted votes in any state this election. Trump enters the general election with a 19% approval rating due to the large casualties in his incompetently fought wars and orders the troops to shoot thousands of protesters during the Labor Day anti-war protests of 2020 across America in which 20 million Americans participated in as well as continued turmoil in Congress, and race relations continue to spiral out of control. The biggest surprise on election day was when Trump reached 4th place in the Electoral College, the House of Representatives must choose between Booker, Sanders, and Kasich. Congressional Democrats split between Booker and Sanders while Kasich narrowly wins with the hesitant support of most Republicans as some far-right Republicans abstain from voting. Kasich is later inaugurated and must re-unify the country as he pledges to work with the Democratic controlled congress to combat the collapsing economy and end the wars.

What a fascinating, morbid, but plausible story. I can see how Trump's presidency could result in so much turmoil.
I see two things wrong:
1) Maine can't split its EC votes 3 ways like that. Can it? You've got what I presume to be ME-01 voting by a plurality for Sanders/Gabbard, ME-02 voting by a plurality for Trump/Pence, but ME-AL voting by a plurality for Kasich/Hickenlooper? That does not make sense.
2) I can only county 117 EC votes for Sanders/Hickenlooper, but 121 EC votes for Kasich/Hickenlooper. If PA were light green instead of light yellow, then your numbers would be correct.

Check out my timeline based on this. I did edit the electoral vote totals by keeping Pennsylvania yellow with 117 for Sanders/Gabbard and 121 for Kasich/Hickenooper. I also put a 20% win option (even lighter shades) for many states on my edited map since the vote is split between 5 almost equally competitive candidates. I'm glad you're interested.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=267650.0

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Reads like something out of the House of Cards writers' room.

Read my timeline!
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=267650.0

[MarkD]

FYI: I re-told your story in a post on my Facebook timeline, albeit phrasing the story in my own vernacular. Just like I said above, I started my post by saying that this story is fascinating, morbid, but plausible. At then end I asked my FB friends "Doesn't that sound plausible?"
My brother said, "I'll be off at the bar if you need me ....."
One friend just said, "Wow."
Another friend, who was a big fan of Kasich last year, said, "Kasich should have won in 16."

[Kingpoleon]

1) Maine can't split its EC votes 3 ways like that. Can it? You've got what I presume to be ME-01 voting by a plurality for Sanders/Gabbard, ME-02 voting by a plurality for Trump/Pence, but ME-AL voting by a plurality for Kasich/Hickenlooper? That does not make sense.

It's mathematically possible, albeit very unlikely.  Imagine this scenario, for example:

CD1:
Sanders 36%
Kasich 34%
Trump 30%

CD2:
Trump 36%
Kasich 34%
Sanders 30%

You can then average the two CDs to get a rough estimate of the statewide totals, which would be:
Kasich 34%
Sanders 33%
Trump 33%

So Kasich wins statewide, despite coming in second in both CDs.

No joke I thought this wasn't possible.  Thank you for proving this to me lol.

I thought I explained it, too.

[TheSaint250]

1) Maine can't split its EC votes 3 ways like that. Can it? You've got what I presume to be ME-01 voting by a plurality for Sanders/Gabbard, ME-02 voting by a plurality for Trump/Pence, but ME-AL voting by a plurality for Kasich/Hickenlooper? That does not make sense.

It's mathematically possible, albeit very unlikely.  Imagine this scenario, for example:

CD1:
Sanders 36%
Kasich 34%
Trump 30%

CD2:
Trump 36%
Kasich 34%
Sanders 30%

You can then average the two CDs to get a rough estimate of the statewide totals, which would be:
Kasich 34%
Sanders 33%
Trump 33%

So Kasich wins statewide, despite coming in second in both CDs.

No joke I thought this wasn't possible.  Thank you for proving this to me lol.

I thought I explained it, too.

Oh lol sorry I kinda just started reading from the end backwards XD

[Oppo]

good for Democrats

It could hurt them by taking away moderate voters.

[morgankingsley]

I know I will sound stupid with this question, but do independents have primaries?

Regards,
MorganKingsley

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

I know I will sound stupid with this question, but do independents have primaries?

No. Only political parties have primaries. Independent candidates run without being attached to any party. Third party candidates like the Green and Libertarian nominees go through the same kind of primary process as Democrats and Republicans.

[morgankingsley]

No wonder why people run as independents. They don't have to worry about any of that

Regards,
MorganKingsley

[BushKerry04]

First of all, I would support John Kasich over Trump and the Democratic nominee easily. Kasich isn't a loony leftist like the Democrats, nor is he an ignoramus like Trump.

But putting aside my opinion for the moment, it is possible he can take votes equally from Trump and the Democratic nominee. It depends who the Democrats nominate.

In a generic (D) Vs. Trump race, I think Kasich takes away slightly more from Trump than the Democrats. He appeals to moderate suburban voters, soccer moms, and professionals who identify as Republicans but who aren't big fans of Trump. Never Trump conservatives and libertarians won't be voting for Kasich in large numbers, those I suspect a few will.

If the Democrats nominate a far-left candidate like Elizabeth Warren or Cory Booker, it's possible Kasich hurts the Democrats more because independents are driven away from the party's nominee. If they nominate someone like Joe Biden, then Kasich still hurts Trump more than the Democrats.

[Rjjr77]

262: Kamala Harris/Pete Buttigieg - 40.6%
235: Donald Trump/Mike Pence - 37.0%
41: John Kasich/Jim Matheson - 21.2%
Others - 1.2%

Kasich wouldn't win Ohio.

[Bidenworth2020]

15% of the vote

[morgankingsley]

I feel like Trump would actually win with a Kasich run. He pulled more like Johnson than Trump. And like Johnson, Kasich would be considered the option for people that wanted to vote republican but not Trump. And is Johnson had not run and split the vote, Trump would have won the popular vote by 1.5 million or so, and probably gotten around 340 votes instead of 306. If Kasich does the same and pulls from Trump, it would show that the Republicans in general would have a far greater poll when both are added up, showing that Trump would indeed have won the popular vote and electoral vote when both combine

Regards,
MorganKingsley

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Here's what Kasich said this morning:

https://twitter.com/TeddyDavisCNN/status/914485128835026944

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[TheSaint250]

*bump*

Here's what Kasich said this morning:

https://twitter.com/TeddyDavisCNN/status/914485128835026944

You must be logged in to read this quote.

He seems to be moving away from saying “unlikely” to everything

[pbrower2a]

355: whoever the Democrats nominate
53: Donald Trump/Mike Pence
120: John Kasich/Jon Huntsman
Others - 1.2%

Not only does the incumbent President get the sort of drubbing that Hoover got in 1932 and Carter got in 1980 in the Electoral College -- he also ends up in third place!

Most of the Kasich/Huntsman wins are really close. Alaska, Georgia, Iowa,  and Missouri are really-close wins for the Democrat.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

355: whoever the Democrats nominate
53: Donald Trump/Mike Pence
120: John Kasich/Jon Huntsman
Others - 1.2%

Not only does the incumbent President get the sort of drubbing that Hoover got in 1932 and Carter got in 1980 in the Electoral College -- he also ends up in third place!

Most of the Kasich/Huntsman wins are really close. Alaska, Georgia, Iowa,  and Missouri are really-close wins for the Democrat.

Almost on par with 1912 for Trump.

[Skill and Chance]

He's more likely to screw the Dems than the GOP if Gary Johnson 2016 is any guide.  An anti-establishment Indie trying to out populist Trump would hurt him the most.