Star of the Southwest

[Cactus Jack]

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"The stranger there among them wore a big iron on his hip."
   - Marty Robbins, "Big Iron"

"Life turns on a dime."
   - Stephen King, "11/22/63"



Author's Note: So, first and foremost, let me start off by saying that thanks to my dodgy-at-best internet connection, the site timed out just as I finished that newspaper article and tried to preview it, meaning I had to start the whole thing over again. Man, I really hope this project is worth that kind of pain.

Second, let me just briefly pass on my due thanks to NewYorkExpress and NHI for encouraging me to write this thing and giving me suggestions as to what to do with it. I've had the concept mulling about by head for a while, ever since I went from lurker to participant on the Atlas, but actually writing this timeline has been a snap decision if ever there was one, and heavens only know I'm going to need help if I mean to finish it.

Now, with all of that out of the way, I'll give a little rationale behind exactly why I'm writing this thing. I actually lurked about the What-Ifs forum for a while before I joined, and I started brewing a few ideas involving possibly my favorite homestate politician. I also happen to be a hopeless fan of Stephen King and his works, specifically the now-legendary 11/22/63, perhaps the codifying work in the "What If?" genre. In the fashion of that book, I imagined a universe where a bystander happened to step into carnage in progress and change political history in the process.

Feel free to speculate as to where I plan on taking this thing, and feel equally free to offer all the tips, suggestions, and criticisms you like. I welcome all input.

Now, let's saddle up get this thing on the road.

[NHI]

Look forward to reading this TL

[Jaguar4life]

So what's this about?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Following!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Look forward to reading this TL

[Kamala]

Looks excellent. Giffords was a rising star, I'm excited to see how this goes.

[Cactus Jack]

Well, this was a much better reception than I was expecting. Thank you all kindly for the votes of confidence.

[NewYorkExpress]

Looking forward to actually reading this. Good luck.

[Cactus Jack]

Star of the Southwest

Act I: Prefatory Matters

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On April 14, 2011 - three months nearly to the day after Jared Lee Loughner came calling in Tucson - Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords returned to the House of Representatives to the sound of thunderous applause on both sides of the aisle, just in time for a major vote on a bipartisan budget. Worn down and looking haunted, with a sling around an arm she would never fully use again, Giffords nonetheless took the podium and delivered what many would come to consider the best speech of her life.

Well-known and liked in the 8th District for her sincerity and easy kindness, Gabby Giffords was considered a something of a local rising star in Arizona almost from the moment she took office. In the  wake of the Tucson shooting, that reputation rocketed into the national scale almost overnight. Unwittingly, in making her candid, heartache-stricken return to Congress, Giffords had solidified her place as a national figure and firmly set in place a future for herself in higher office.

Though building her political resume would still take time, Gabrielle Giffords had already, in very appreciable ways, become the Star of the Southwest.



Author's note: Three and a half days. Three and a half days I worked on that speech, all the while desperately hoping that it would turn out alright and that I didn't secretly seriously suck at writing speeches and dialogue.

I really hope that all was worth it.

On a more somber note, reading obituaries and newspaper accounts of the shooting as research for this thing has most decidedly not been an enjoyable task.

[Cactus Jack]

Incidentally, this timeline is going to cover a lot of ground and a lot of midterms, so I welcome any input and suggestions as to races and political climates outside of Arizona. I admit to being fluent only in Arizona politics (and technically conversational in Nevada politics thanks to family).

Essentially, if you feel like you might have something to contribute that might help out the hopeless newbie, feel free to pitch it to me.

[NewYorkExpress]

Incidentally, this timeline is going to cover a lot of ground and a lot of midterms, so I welcome any input and suggestions as to races and political climates outside of Arizona. I admit to being fluent only in Arizona politics (and technically conversational in Nevada politics thanks to family).

Essentially, if you feel like you might have something to contribute that might help out the hopeless newbie, feel free to pitch it to me.

I'm all for a different 2012 Republican Presidential nominee than Romney (maybe Pawlenty or Perry?)

[NHI]

Enjoying this.

[Cactus Jack]

The Ballad of Gabby and Jeff: Part I

It's a well-accepted truth, at least among analysts and political enthusiasts, that any given election cycle really begins the year before. Barely a few weeks into the New Year, the old adage proved true, and the 2012 elections kicked off.

It was all but guaranteed to be a remarkable cycle, and not just for the obvious presidential elephant in the proverbial room. Almost from the outset, 2012 was marked by a veritable wave of congressional retirements, and nowhere was this trend more obvious than in the Senate. It was an unusually Democratic trend; first to fall, to the anxiety of virtually every Democratic operative in the country, was North Dakota's Kent Conrad, stepping out of the race for his state's Class I seat on January 18. Only a day later, and to considerably fewer Democratic tears, the eternally-controversial Joe Lieberman followed suit, and in subsequent months the two were joined by New Mexico's Jeff Bingaman, Hawaii's Daniel Akaka, and Wisconsin's Herb Kohl.

Though the retirements were broadly a blow to the Democrats, it wasn't a fully exclusive trend. Making like their colleagues on the left, Senators Kay Bailey Hutchison and Olympia Snowe hung up their hats, stepping respectively out of Texas and Maine politics for good. Though their chances in Texas were decidedly slim (though not entirely nonexistent; the continued existence of Debra Medina and Louie Gohmert provided at least some glimmer of hope), Maine was all but guaranteed to fall into their hands with an incumbent Obama at the top of the ticket. Still, the general consensus was simple: if the Democrats had any hope of balancing out nearly guaranteed losses in North Dakota and Nebraska, keeping the Senate, and picking themselves back up after a catastrophic 2010, they needed more than Maine.

Their chance came in the great Southwest. On February 10, almost a month to the day after the near-disaster in Tucson, Jon Kyl announced his intent to vacate Arizona's Class I seat at the end of the 112th Congress, bringing an end to an 18-year career. Almost immediately thereafter, 6th District Representative Jeff Flake entered the race, clearing the Republican field of serious challengers and becoming the instant frontrunner to replace the venerable Kyl. Since 1994, state Democrats had been content punt on the seat despite DeConcini's electoral record before that point, particularly once Kyl assumed incumbency. But 2012 provided them with a unique opportunity: the chance to square off for an open seat, in a favorable environment to boot.

In 2012, they had a chance.

And in 2012, they finally had an ace in the hole.

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Author's note: It happened again! One full hour of writing chewed up and promptly digested by a wonderfully convenient internet outage!

[Cactus Jack]

Alright, fine folks, I could officially use a hand with something. I've been fiddling with my account controls, and I think I've worked out exactly how to do signatures. So, with that in mind, I'd like to do an NHI (so to speak) and drop something in my signature to advertise this timeline.

So, here's my question to all of you vastly more experienced than I am: what would be the best way to do that? I don't have a custom banner to put in my signature, so I'm open to alternatives.

Thanks.

[NewYorkExpress]

Alright, fine folks, I could officially use a hand with something. I've been fiddling with my account controls, and I think I've worked out exactly how to do signatures. So, with that in mind, I'd like to do an NHI (so to speak) and drop something in my signature to advertise this timeline.

So, here's my question to all of you vastly more experienced than I am: what would be the best way to do that? I don't have a custom banner to put in my signature, so I'm open to alternatives.

Thanks.

A photo of Gabrielle Giffords?

[Cactus Jack]

There we go. At last, this beast is properly advertised.

Anyway, comments and criticisms are still welcomed. Going to try and update either tonight or tomorrow, since I'll finally have some consistent free time.

[Cactus Jack]

The Ballad of Gabby and Jeff: Part II

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After six months of nearly ceaseless speculation, encouragement, and media chatter, Gabrielle Giffords entered the race to succeed Jon Kyl on July 18, 2011.

Though Joe Donnelly was technically the first serious Democrat to announce in 2011 - a solid, but long-shot recruit all but doomed to a thorough stomping at the hands of the mighty Richard Lugar - Giffords' entry into the Arizona Senate race gave national Democrats their first real glimmer of hope.

They had their candidate - their single best shot at finally flipping Arizona, a a red state drifting ever so slowly toward purple, into their column - in a young, boundlessly energetic rising star for whom a grim brush with mortality had somehow proven an express elevator into the limelight. With such dire odds ahead of them, every Democrat from D.C. to Tucson knew that it was a shot they couldn't afford to throw away, and the national and state parties leaped on the race in an instant. Inevitably, it was a desperately close race from the outset; the Republicans had, arguably, the more appropriate candidate for Arizona in inoffensive, faintly right-libertarian Representative Jeff Flake, while the Democrats had unarguably the better, more inspiring campaigner in Gabby Giffords.

It would be a clash of ideology against charisma, one wrestling bout on which both parties were more than happy to stake millions.

As the year marched on, Rep. Giffords was followed by a surprising number of fellow star Democratic recruits, among them the likes of Heidi Heitkamp and Tammy Baldwin. Predictably, Dean Heller, appointed to the Senate after the resignation of a righteously disgraced John Ensign, was swamped in the fight for his political life in increasingly-blue Nevada; likewise, the entry of former governor and state celebrity Angus King into the race for the seat held by Olympia Snowe had made that contest all but a foregone conclusion: one more pickup for one more left-leaning New England independent. To the Republicans' detriment, the race for Senate control began to even out, slowly but appreciably.

At the same time, President Obama geared up to face reelection, setting his sights on a fractured Republican field that seemed to grow in size and eccentricity by the day. By the end of the year, the race to face him had at last boiled down to a four-way confrontation between Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and the seemingly eternal Ron Paul. Come December, Iowa - and subsequently the Republican nomination - was anybody's game.

As, of course, was the race to replace Jon Kyl.

It was going to be a long year.

PPP, Dec. 31: In Iowa, Paul Barely Leads Republican Field
Ron Paul: 20%
Mitt Romney: 19%
Rick Santorum: 18%
Newt Gingrich: 16%
...

PPP Dec. 8: Flake, Giffords on Razor's Edge in Arizona
Jeff Flake: 40%
Gabrielle Giffords: 39%
Other: 3%
Undecided: 18%

[Cactus Jack]

So, while I work out my next major update, I have a few questions for my loyal readers.

First and foremost, how have all of you been enjoying the format and presentation? I decided to go for a more literary writing style than what seems to be typical on the board - I love the professional, almost newsreel-style updates I've seen in other timelines, but the way I've done things has been working out well for me so far.

Second: would any of you be interested in contributing? I know other timelines have involved outside posters as newscasters and such, and I've been considering doing a similar thing for this timeline. I also desperately need consultants for races outside of Arizona, Nevada, and maybe New Mexico; my intimate political knowledge is very limited to my state and region, and I intend to start changing things appreciably after I finish off my alternate 2012.

As always, all input is appreciated. Thank you all for following.

- Saguaro, the Victor Hugo Wannabe Formerly Known as Cactus

[NewYorkExpress]

So, while I work out my next major update, I have a few questions for my loyal readers.

First and foremost, how have all of you been enjoying the format and presentation? I decided to go for a more literary writing style than what seems to be typical on the board - I love the professional, almost newsreel-style updates I've seen in other timelines, but the way I've done things has been working out well for me so far.

Second: would any of you be interested in contributing? I know other timelines have involved outside posters as newscasters and such, and I've been considering doing a similar thing for this timeline. I also desperately need consultants for races outside of Arizona, Nevada, and maybe New Mexico; my intimate political knowledge is very limited to my state and region, and I intend to start changing things appreciably after I finish off my alternate 2012.

As always, all input is appreciated. Thank you all for following.

- Saguaro, the Victor Hugo Wannabe Formerly Known as Cactus

There's no reason Kirsten Gillibrand shouldn't win with 70%+ of the vote, or a Democrat versus Democrat battle in California's jungle primary (maybe Feinstein vs Harris).

Also, using other posters as reporters and pundits is basically a way of getting out of doing work. It doesn't quite work for me.

[Cactus Jack]

So, while I work out my next major update, I have a few questions for my loyal readers.

First and foremost, how have all of you been enjoying the format and presentation? I decided to go for a more literary writing style than what seems to be typical on the board - I love the professional, almost newsreel-style updates I've seen in other timelines, but the way I've done things has been working out well for me so far.

Second: would any of you be interested in contributing? I know other timelines have involved outside posters as newscasters and such, and I've been considering doing a similar thing for this timeline. I also desperately need consultants for races outside of Arizona, Nevada, and maybe New Mexico; my intimate political knowledge is very limited to my state and region, and I intend to start changing things appreciably after I finish off my alternate 2012.

As always, all input is appreciated. Thank you all for following.

- Saguaro, the Victor Hugo Wannabe Formerly Known as Cactus

There's no reason Kirsten Gillibrand shouldn't win with 70%+ of the vote, or a Democrat versus Democrat battle in California's jungle primary (maybe Feinstein vs Harris).

Also, using other posters as reporters and pundits is basically a way of getting out of doing work. It doesn't quite work for me.

Duly noted. For me, it's less a way of dodging work and more a way of including my readers, but to each their own.

Any other takers?

[GoTfan]

So, while I work out my next major update, I have a few questions for my loyal readers.

First and foremost, how have all of you been enjoying the format and presentation? I decided to go for a more literary writing style than what seems to be typical on the board - I love the professional, almost newsreel-style updates I've seen in other timelines, but the way I've done things has been working out well for me so far.

Second: would any of you be interested in contributing? I know other timelines have involved outside posters as newscasters and such, and I've been considering doing a similar thing for this timeline. I also desperately need consultants for races outside of Arizona, Nevada, and maybe New Mexico; my intimate political knowledge is very limited to my state and region, and I intend to start changing things appreciably after I finish off my alternate 2012.

As always, all input is appreciated. Thank you all for following.

- Saguaro, the Victor Hugo Wannabe Formerly Known as Cactus

There's no reason Kirsten Gillibrand shouldn't win with 70%+ of the vote, or a Democrat versus Democrat battle in California's jungle primary (maybe Feinstein vs Harris).

Also, using other posters as reporters and pundits is basically a way of getting out of doing work. It doesn't quite work for me.

Duly noted. For me, it's less a way of dodging work and more a way of including my readers, but to each their own.

Any other takers?

I'd be up for it.

[Cactus Jack]

Howdy, everyone. Sorry about the absence lately; things have been uncommonly busy, and I've been trying to work out a way to balance this thing with my work schedule. I have so little time to work on this story, but I love the concept way too much to just let it go.

But the news about McCain today - another Star of the Southwest brought low by some form of brain damage or other - has sort of brought this thing stampeding back into my conscience, especially considering that I fully intended to incorporate a plotline almost exactly like what's actually happened to McCain in real life, all the day down to the month and year of diagnosis. It's funny, in a tragic way, how telling you all that would normally be a colossal spoiler.

Not so much when you're dealing with real life.

At any rate, expect further progress on this timeline in the near future. I'll make it live again, damnit.

[Cactus Jack]

Rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated, but not too exaggerated. Anyone still interested in this?

[GoTfan]

Rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated, but not too exaggerated. Anyone still interested in this?

Hell yeah!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated, but not too exaggerated. Anyone still interested in this?

Hell yeah!