I still think Jealous is being underestimated in this race. He might not be the strongest candidate, but he’s running in a Clinton +26 state with extremely unfavorable demographics for the GOP in what is guaranteed to be a Democratic wave year in MD. That’s reason enough for me to not move this out of the Toss-up column. I’m not sure if polling is really reflecting the enthusiasm gap here.
Yeah, completely agreed. Maryland is not only a Titanium D State, but a State where Democrats are much more partisan than, say, Massachusetts. Hogan only squeaked by in a GOP wave year with extremely low turnout - all circumstances that will play against him this time.
Hogan is popular now. It's not easy to unseat an incumbent as popular as Hogan, even in a state such as Maryland.
I wouldn't be surprised if Hogan won by double digits. Even in 2006, many Republican governors of blue states won re-election in landslides, and Jealous is a mediocre candidate (great ideologically, but not a good campaigner). Before you say "But Elhrich!" he was more conservative than and never as popular as Hogan.
