MD-Gov: Don't be Jealous!

[IceSpear]

The problem is that Ben Cardin is on the ballot and not Chris Van Hollen.  Cardin is much more in line with people that vote for Hogan than Chris Van Hollen is, who galvanize the O'Malley blacks. That's why it's a Lean R race.

The O'Malley blacks, LMAO.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The problem is that Ben Cardin is on the ballot and not Chris Van Hollen.  Cardin is much more in line with people that vote for Hogan than Chris Van Hollen is, who galvanize the O'Malley blacks. That's why it's a Lean R race.

The O'Malley blacks, LMAO.

Just when you thought OC can't get any better.

[Zaybay]

Trump Admisistration to set a pay freeze for federal workers

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/aug/30/trump-sets-pay-freeze-federal-workforce-2019-citin/

Looks like Jealous has just been handed down his defining issue.

[wesmoorenerd]

Trump Admisistration to set a pay freeze for federal workers

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/aug/30/trump-sets-pay-freeze-federal-workforce-2019-citin/

Looks like Jealous has just been handed down his defining issue.

Jealous' winning strategy for a while now has been to tie Hogan to Trump. It's difficult to do, though, and I don't really see how this has made it any easier. This will probably only affect federal races, and those are about as favorable as Dems could possibly hope for anyway.

[Zaybay]

Trump Admisistration to set a pay freeze for federal workers

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/aug/30/trump-sets-pay-freeze-federal-workforce-2019-citin/

Looks like Jealous has just been handed down his defining issue.

Jealous' winning strategy for a while now has been to tie Hogan to Trump. It's difficult to do, though, and I don't really see how this has made it any easier. This will probably only affect federal races, and those are about as favorable as Dems could possibly hope for anyway.

If we were to take a look on how this race will play out, Jealous will likely get 90% or more of the AA vote. This would then require Jealous to win 35-40% of the white vote to claim victory. Now, heres the thing with this. If Jealous can successfully pounce on this(if) and say he would support them as governor or fight Trump on this, then suddenly, many white government workers have a choice in him, compared to the Hogan. I would need to see how Jealous uses this though, before jumping to conclusions.

[wesmoorenerd]

Trump Admisistration to set a pay freeze for federal workers

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/aug/30/trump-sets-pay-freeze-federal-workforce-2019-citin/

Looks like Jealous has just been handed down his defining issue.

Jealous' winning strategy for a while now has been to tie Hogan to Trump. It's difficult to do, though, and I don't really see how this has made it any easier. This will probably only affect federal races, and those are about as favorable as Dems could possibly hope for anyway.

If we were to take a look on how this race will play out, Jealous will likely get 90% or more of the AA vote. This would then require Jealous to win 35-40% of the white vote to claim victory. Now, heres the thing with this. If Jealous can successfully pounce on this(if) and say he would support them as governor or fight Trump on this, then suddenly, many white government workers have a choice in him, compared to the Hogan. I would need to see how Jealous uses this though, before jumping to conclusions.

How would Jealous go about doing that? Not like the Governor of Maryland has any power over federal pay freezes.

[Zaybay]

Trump Admisistration to set a pay freeze for federal workers

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/aug/30/trump-sets-pay-freeze-federal-workforce-2019-citin/

Looks like Jealous has just been handed down his defining issue.

Jealous' winning strategy for a while now has been to tie Hogan to Trump. It's difficult to do, though, and I don't really see how this has made it any easier. This will probably only affect federal races, and those are about as favorable as Dems could possibly hope for anyway.

If we were to take a look on how this race will play out, Jealous will likely get 90% or more of the AA vote. This would then require Jealous to win 35-40% of the white vote to claim victory. Now, heres the thing with this. If Jealous can successfully pounce on this(if) and say he would support them as governor or fight Trump on this, then suddenly, many white government workers have a choice in him, compared to the Hogan. I would need to see how Jealous uses this though, before jumping to conclusions.

How would Jealous go about doing that? Not like the Governor of Maryland has any power over federal pay freezes.

Well, Jealous cant actually implement Single-Payer. And Cuomo/Nixon cant really fight Trump as governor of NY. But what it does is keep federal workers in the D camp. It makes Jealous look like a sort of champion for them, and, if he makes it a big issue in his campaign, can help keep the white vote on his side. Of course, he hasnt used it yet, so I doubt if he will, but if he plays it right, it could leave an impact.

[wesmoorenerd]

Trump Admisistration to set a pay freeze for federal workers

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/aug/30/trump-sets-pay-freeze-federal-workforce-2019-citin/

Looks like Jealous has just been handed down his defining issue.

Jealous' winning strategy for a while now has been to tie Hogan to Trump. It's difficult to do, though, and I don't really see how this has made it any easier. This will probably only affect federal races, and those are about as favorable as Dems could possibly hope for anyway.

If we were to take a look on how this race will play out, Jealous will likely get 90% or more of the AA vote. This would then require Jealous to win 35-40% of the white vote to claim victory. Now, heres the thing with this. If Jealous can successfully pounce on this(if) and say he would support them as governor or fight Trump on this, then suddenly, many white government workers have a choice in him, compared to the Hogan. I would need to see how Jealous uses this though, before jumping to conclusions.

How would Jealous go about doing that? Not like the Governor of Maryland has any power over federal pay freezes.

Well, Jealous cant actually implement Single-Payer. And Cuomo/Nixon cant really fight Trump as governor of NY. But what it does is keep federal workers in the D camp. It makes Jealous look like a sort of champion for them, and, if he makes it a big issue in his campaign, can help keep the white vote on his side. Of course, he hasnt used it yet, so I doubt if he will, but if he plays it right, it could leave an impact.

Jealous could actually try and implement state-level single payer. Similar measures were passed in Vermont, establishing Green Mountain Care, a state-level single payer system. It failed miserably, but still, Jealous could fight for that. And Cuomo/Nixon could fight Trump. Governors have a lot of power and can hold their own against the federal government a lot of the time on various issues they have "jurisdiction" on. What Governors can't do, though, is try and interfere with an entirely federal deal like pay freezes for the federal workforce. Jealous has no power here. I could see this benefiting him, but I really don't know how, and I don't think Jealous knows how either.

[Zaybay]

Just an update on the race

Jealous has released his first general ad, you can see it here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otmUqe3hndE

Jealous has also released a 26(yes, thats correct) page plan to reform the criminal justice system, which is, again, linked here:
https://benjealous.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Ben-Jealous-Criminal-Justice-Platform-1.pdf

[Kleine Scheiße]

God, that criminal justice plan...

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A vote for Hogan is a vote against harm reduction. A vote for Jealous is a vote for restoring community trust in policing.

[MT Treasurer]

I still think Jealous is being underestimated in this race. He might not be the strongest candidate, but he’s running in a Clinton +26 state with extremely unfavorable demographics for the GOP in what is guaranteed to be a Democratic wave year in MD. That’s reason enough for me to not move this out of the Toss-up column. I’m not sure if polling is really reflecting the enthusiasm gap here.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I still think Jealous is being underestimated in this race. He might not be the strongest candidate, but he’s running in a Clinton +26 state with extremely unfavorable demographics for the GOP in what is guaranteed to be a Democratic wave year in MD. That’s reason enough for me to not move this out of the Toss-up column. I’m not sure if polling is really reflecting the enthusiasm gap here.

Yeah, completely agreed. Maryland is not only a Titanium D State, but a State where Democrats are much more partisan than, say, Massachusetts. Hogan only squeaked by in a GOP wave year with extremely low turnout - all circumstances that will play against him this time.

[Politician]

I still think Jealous is being underestimated in this race. He might not be the strongest candidate, but he’s running in a Clinton +26 state with extremely unfavorable demographics for the GOP in what is guaranteed to be a Democratic wave year in MD. That’s reason enough for me to not move this out of the Toss-up column. I’m not sure if polling is really reflecting the enthusiasm gap here.

Yeah, completely agreed. Maryland is not only a Titanium D State, but a State where Democrats are much more partisan than, say, Massachusetts. Hogan only squeaked by in a GOP wave year with extremely low turnout - all circumstances that will play against him this time.

Hogan is popular now. It's not easy to unseat an incumbent as popular as Hogan, even in a state such as Maryland.

I wouldn't be surprised if Hogan won by double digits. Even in 2006, many Republican governors of blue states won re-election in landslides, and Jealous is a mediocre candidate (great ideologically, but not a good campaigner). Before you say "But Elhrich!" he was more conservative than and never as popular as Hogan.

[Zaybay]

I still think Jealous is being underestimated in this race. He might not be the strongest candidate, but he’s running in a Clinton +26 state with extremely unfavorable demographics for the GOP in what is guaranteed to be a Democratic wave year in MD. That’s reason enough for me to not move this out of the Toss-up column. I’m not sure if polling is really reflecting the enthusiasm gap here.

Yeah, completely agreed. Maryland is not only a Titanium D State, but a State where Democrats are much more partisan than, say, Massachusetts. Hogan only squeaked by in a GOP wave year with extremely low turnout - all circumstances that will play against him this time.

Hogan is popular now. It's not easy to unseat an incumbent as popular as Hogan, even in a state such as Maryland.

I wouldn't be surprised if Hogan won by double digits. Even in 2006, many Republican governors of blue states won re-election in landslides, and Jealous is a mediocre candidate (great ideologically, but not a good campaigner). Before you say "But Elhrich!" he was more conservative than and never as popular as Hogan.

Thats not even on the table. The state is too inelastic for that to happen. Baker can win by doubles, so can Scott and Sununu, Hogan cannot. Popularity has never equaled support, so dont just look at an approval and say, "hes sure for/never going to be reelected". I will say that most of the polls done by NYT have shown the incumbent unpopular, yet they are tying, even more so with some of the actually popular incumbents.

I would like a poll of this race, though, and perhaps NH as well.

[Bidenworth2020]

I still think Jealous is being underestimated in this race. He might not be the strongest candidate, but he’s running in a Clinton +26 state with extremely unfavorable demographics for the GOP in what is guaranteed to be a Democratic wave year in MD. That’s reason enough for me to not move this out of the Toss-up column. I’m not sure if polling is really reflecting the enthusiasm gap here.

Yeah, completely agreed. Maryland is not only a Titanium D State, but a State where Democrats are much more partisan than, say, Massachusetts. Hogan only squeaked by in a GOP wave year with extremely low turnout - all circumstances that will play against him this time.

Hogan is popular now. It's not easy to unseat an incumbent as popular as Hogan, even in a state such as Maryland.

I wouldn't be surprised if Hogan won by double digits. Even in 2006, many Republican governors of blue states won re-election in landslides, and Jealous is a mediocre candidate (great ideologically, but not a good campaigner). Before you say "But Elhrich!" he was more conservative than and never as popular as Hogan.

Thats not even on the table. The state is too inelastic for that to happen. Baker can win by doubles, so can Scott and Sununu, Hogan cannot. Popularity has never equaled support, so dont just look at an approval and say, "hes sure for/never going to be reelected". I will say that most of the polls done by NYT have shown the incumbent unpopular, yet they are tying, even more so with some of the actually popular incumbents.

I would like a poll of this race, though, and perhaps NH as well.

nah, he definitely can.

[Thomas D]

Hogan will not win by 10 points.    If he wins it will be in the 52-48 range

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely Hogan 56-44

[Kleine Scheiße]

lol

Target only expanded into Canada in 2011, by the way. Zero presence in South America.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

lol

Target only expanded into Canada in 2011, by the way. Zero presence in South America.

Disgusting. But no one will call them out on it, because we have to elect "moderate hero" republicans.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

God, that criminal justice plan...

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A vote for Hogan is a vote against harm reduction. A vote for Jealous is a vote for restoring community trust in policing.

[Progressive Pessimist]

lol

Target only expanded into Canada in 2011, by the way. Zero presence in South America.

Disgusting. But no one will call them out on it, because we have to elect "moderate hero" republicans.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I wonder when the fall from Hogans disastrous campaign advertisements will register in the polls. His advertisements have done nothing but reinforce the notion that he only cares about selfish well off people in the state (such as someone who said that they were considering moving out of the state over high taxes in the O Malley administration, which was literally in a Hogan advertisement), and has no interest in helping anyone else.

[Skye]

lol

Target only expanded into Canada in 2011, by the way. Zero presence in South America.

As a Venezuelan, I laughed out loud. There are no Target stores here, unfortunately.


Our shelves are like that, though. 

[Technocracy Timmy]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isbi6T0n11E+VA+Gov+is+Safe+D


Looks like Ben Jealous has switched over to the Virginia 2021 Gov race.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isbi6T0n11E+VA+Gov+is+Safe+D


Looks like Ben Jealous has switched over to the Virginia 2021 Gov race.

That's one hell of a gaffe!