My Senatorial Predictions

[Senator-elect Spark]

PA: Sen. Bob Casey def. Lou Barletta (53-45%)
OH: Sen. Sherrod Brown def. Jim Renacci (50-48%)
IN: Mike Braun def. Sen. Joe Donnelly  (53-47%)
WV: Sen. Joe Manchin def. Patrick Morrisey
ME: Sen. Angus King def. Eric Brakey
MO: Att. Gen. Josh Hawley (narrow)def. Sen. Claire McCaskill (52-47%)
WI: Sen. Tammy Baldwin def. Scott Fitzgerald/Rep
MI: Sen. Debbie Stabenow def. Rep
MN: Lt. Gov. Tina Smith def. Rep
NY: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand def. Chele Farley 62-38%
VT: Sen. Bernie Sanders def. Scott Milne 70-28%
VA: Sen. Tim Kaine def. Barbara Comstock 52-47%
CT: Sen. Chris Murphy def. Rep
RI: Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse def. Robert Nardolillo
MA: Sen. Elizabeth Warren def. Shiva Ayyadurai/Rep
NJ: Sen. Bob Menendez def. Bob Huger 54-45%
MD: Sen. Ben Cardin def. Rep
DE: Sen. Tom Carper def. Chuck Boyce
VA: Sen. Tim Kaine def. Barbara Comstock
MS: Sen. Roger Wicker def. Ray Mabus
TN: Marsha Blackburn def. Phil Bredesen
FL:  Bill Nelson def. Rick Scott 50-48%
TX: Sen. Ted Cruz def. Beto O'Rourke
NM: Sen. Martin Heinrich def. Richard Berry
AZ: Kelli Ward def. Kyrsten Sinema
UT: Fmr Gov. Mitt Romney def. Jenny Wilson/Dem 72-24%
NV: Dina Titus def. Sen. Dean Heller (D pick-up)
WY: Sen. John Barrasso (unopposed)
NE: Sen. Deb Fischer (unopposed)
MT: Corey Stapleton def. Sen. Jon Tester (51-48%)
ND: Kevin Cramer def. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (R pick-up)
WA: Sen. Maria Cantwell def. Dem
CA: Sen. Dianne Feinstein def. Dem/Rep
HI: Sen. Mazie Hirono (unopposed)

[Lord Admirale]

PA: Bob Casey
OH: Josh Mandel* (GOP gain)
IN: Bill Curtis (GOP gain)
WV: Joe Manchin
ME: Angus King
MO: Jason Smith (GOP gain)
WI: Tammy Baldwin
NY: Kirsten Gillibrand
VT: Bernie Sanders
CT: Chris Murphy
RI: Sheldon Whitehouse
MA: Elizabeth Warren
NJ: Bob Menendez*
MD: Ben Cardin
DE: Tom Carper
VA: Tim Kaine
AL: Luther Strange*
MS: Roger Wicker
TN: Bob Corker
FL: Bill Nelson*
TX: Ted Cruz*
NM: Martin Heinrich
AZ: Jeff Flake*
UT: Orrin Hatch
NV: Jackie Rosen*  (Dem gain)
WY: Liz Cheney
NE: Deb Fischer
MT: Jon Tester*
ND: Heidi Heitkamp*
WA: Patty Murray
CA: Dianne Feinstein or Dem challenger
HI: Mazie Hirono

* denotes close race

[I’m not Stu]

PA: Sen. Bob Casey def. Jim Christiana
OH: ???
IN: Republican def. Sen. Joe Donnelly
WV: Sen. Joe Manchin def. Evan Jenkins
ME: Sen. Angus King def. Eric Brakey
MO: Rep def. Sen Claire McCaskill (narrow)
WI: Sen. Tammy Baldwin def. Scott Fitzgerald/Rep
NY: Se. Kirsten Gillibrand def. Chris Gibson
VT: Sen. Bernie Sanders def. Scott Milne
CT: Sen. Chris Murphy def. Tony Hwang
RI: Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse def. Robert Nardolillo
MA: Sen. Elizabeth Warren def. Shiva Ayyadurai/Rep
NJ: Sen. Bob Menendez def. Thomas Kean Jr./Rep
MD: Sen. Ben Cardin def. Rep
DE: Sen. Tom Carper def. Chuck Boyce
VA: Sen. Tim Kaine def. Barbara Comstock
AL: Republican def. Democrat
MS: Sen. Roger Wicker def. Democrat
TN: Sen. Bob Corker def. Democrat
FL: Bill Nelson def. Rick Scott
TX: Sen. Ted Cruz def. Beto O'Rourke
NM: Sen. Martin Heinrich def. Richard Berry
AZ: Sen. Jeff Flake def. Chris Russell
UT: Republican def. Scott Howell/Dem
NV: Dina Titus def. Sen. Dean Heller (D pick-up)
WY: Sen. John Barrasso def. Democrat
NE: Sen. Deb Fischer def. Democrat
MT: Sen. Jon Tester def. Republican
ND: Rick Becker def. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (R pick-up)
WA: Sen. Maria Cantwell def. Democrat/Republican
CA: Sen. Dianne Feinstein def. Democrat/Republican/Michael Eisen
HI: Sen. Mazie Hirono def. John Carroll

[Coraxion]

MT: Corey Stapleton def. Sen. Jon Tester (R pick-up)
ND: Rick Becker def. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (R pick-up)

Rubbish.

[I’m not Stu]

WA: Sen. Maria Cantwell (unopposed)

Cantwell already has an opponent, Jennifer "GiGi" Ferguson.

[Heisenberg]

MT: Corey Stapleton def. Sen. Jon Tester (R pick-up)
ND: Rick Becker def. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (R pick-up)

Rubbish.

I don't think Stapleton will be the nominee, but Tester is far from safe, so a Republican pickup here is definitely possible.

ND is probably far-fetched, though.

Also... how did Mark Hurt win the GOP nomination in IN?

Agree on ND being far-fetched, and I highly doubt Stapleton and Becker will be the nominees. MT flips way before ND, Heitkamp is way more popular, and Tester is too polarizing, and should tank in support in Yellowstone County and other parts of eastern Montana. And what about Michigan, you forgot that.

[Skye]

Yeah, I'm suuuuure McCaskill and Donnelly will win if Bill Nelson, Jon Tester, Heidi Heitkamp and Sherrod Brown lose.

Anyway, I posted my prediction today:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=239545.msg5708663#msg5708663

Pretty much this. Also, no way Gillibrand is losing her primary.

[I’m not Stu]

MT: Corey Stapleton def. Sen. Jon Tester (R pick-up)
ND: Rick Becker def. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (R pick-up)

Rubbish.

I don't think Stapleton will be the nominee, but Tester is far from safe, so a Republican pickup here is definitely possible.

ND is probably far-fetched, though.

Also... how did Mark Hurt win the GOP nomination in IN?

Agree on ND being far-fetched, and I highly doubt Stapleton and Becker will be the nominees. MT flips way before ND, Heitkamp is way more popular, and Tester is too polarizing, and should tank in support in Yellowstone County and other parts of eastern Montana. And what about Michigan, you forgot that.

MT: Corey Stapleton def. Sen. Jon Tester (R pick-up)
ND: Rick Becker def. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (R pick-up)

Rubbish.

I don't think Stapleton will be the nominee, but Tester is far from safe, so a Republican pickup here is definitely possible.

ND is probably far-fetched, though.

Also... how did Mark Hurt win the GOP nomination in IN?

I think Tester is vulnerable, but has a better chance than Heitkamp.

CA: Dianne Feinstein or Dem challenger

I think Feinstein wins, regardless of opponent's party. It's unlikely Feinstein gets a high-profile primary challenger because the high-profile Democrats don't want to burn bridges in an already divided party. The high-profile Democrats are already running for governor and CA AG. I don't think a no-name Democrat defeats Feinstein.

[Heisenberg]

I think Tester is vulnerable, but has a better chance than Heitkamp.

And Becker probably won't be the nominee. State House to US Senate is a massive jump, and there are better possible candidates who are far more likely to run and win.

[Heisenberg]

MT flips way before ND, Heitkamp is way more popular, and Tester is too polarizing, and should tank in support in Yellowstone County and other parts of eastern Montana.

Don't be silly, polarization only exists in ND and not in MT. We all know how easy it is to beat Democratic incumbents in the Dakotas, John Thune will tell you about it. MT on the other hand... it's like a totally different world once you cross the border.

Also... the presidential election results are obviously the only thing that matters.

I think Tester is vulnerable, but has a better chance than Heitkamp.

And Becker probably won't be the nominee. State House to US Senate is a massive jump, and there are better possible candidates who are far more likely to run and win.

I like Becker and would not underestimate him (although he'd still face an uphill climb), but isn't he more of a Libertarian-type anyway?

I don't like Becker because his record had been mostly pro-choice prior to running for Governor in 2016, which causes me to be suspicious of him. That also hurt him at the convention IIRC. Anyway, if I were him and wanted higher office, I'd try to aim for leadership, or run for State Senate or a row office.

[Xing]

I highly doubt that Brown loses if McCaskill wins, but this prediction isn't that implausible otherwise.

[Senator-elect Spark]

I highly doubt that Brown loses if McCaskill wins, but this prediction isn't that implausible otherwise.

Thank you for that.

[jamestroll]

MT: Corey Stapleton def. Sen. Jon Tester (R pick-up)
ND: Rick Becker def. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (R pick-up)

Rubbish.

I don't think Stapleton will be the nominee, but Tester is far from safe, so a Republican pickup here is definitely possible.

ND is probably far-fetched, though.

Also... how did Mark Hurt win the GOP nomination in IN?

Agree on ND being far-fetched, and I highly doubt Stapleton and Becker will be the nominees. MT flips way before ND, Heitkamp is way more popular, and Tester is too polarizing, and should tank in support in Yellowstone County and other parts of eastern Montana. And what about Michigan, you forgot that.

Are you guys the same person? It's kinda freaky how Heisenberg always affirms everything MT Treasurer says

NO! They are not the same person! Trust me I know all to well!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Coraxion]

PA: Bob Casey
OH: Sherrod Brown
IN: Joe Donnelly
WV: Joe Manchin
ME: Angus King
MO: Claire McCaskill
WI: Tammy Baldwin
NY: Kirsten Gillibrand
VT: Bernie Sanders
CT: Chris Murphy
RI: Sheldon Whitehouse
MA: Elizabeth Warren
NJ: Bob Menendez
MD: Ben Cardin
DE: Tom Carper
VA: Tim Kaine
MS: Roger Wicker
TN: Bob Corker
FL: Bill Nelson
TX: Ted Cruz
NM: Martin Heinrich
AZ: Kyrsten Sinema*
UT: Jim Matheson*
NV: Democratic nominee*
WY: John Barrasso
NE: Deb Fischer
MT: Jon Tester
ND: Heidi Heitkamp
WA: Maria Cantwell
CA: Dianne Feinstein
HI: Mazie Hirono

*pickup

[Classic Conservative]

PA: Bob Casey
OH: Sherrod Brown
IN: Joe Donnelly
WV: Joe Manchin
ME: Angus King
MO: Claire McCaskill
WI: Tammy Baldwin
NY: Kirsten Gillibrand
VT: Bernie Sanders
CT: Chris Murphy
RI: Sheldon Whitehouse
MA: Elizabeth Warren
NJ: Bob Menendez
MD: Ben Cardin
DE: Tom Carper
VA: Tim Kaine
MS: Roger Wicker
TN: Bob Corker
FL: Bill Nelson
TX: Ted Cruz
NM: Martin Heinrich
AZ: Kyrsten Sinema*
UT: Jim Matheson*
NV: Democratic nominee*
WY: John Barrasso
NE: Deb Fischer
MT: Jon Tester
ND: Heidi Heitkamp
WA: Maria Cantwell
CA: Dianne Feinstein
HI: Mazie Hirono

*pickup

But we are the hacks...

[_]

PA: Bob Casey
OH: Sherrod Brown
IN: Joe Donnelly
WV: Joe Manchin
ME: Angus King
MO: Claire McCaskill
WI: Tammy Baldwin
NY: Kirsten Gillibrand
VT: Bernie Sanders
CT: Chris Murphy
RI: Sheldon Whitehouse
MA: Elizabeth Warren
NJ: Bob Menendez
MD: Ben Cardin
DE: Tom Carper
VA: Tim Kaine
MS: Roger Wicker
TN: Bob Corker
FL: Bill Nelson
TX: Ted Cruz
NM: Martin Heinrich
AZ: Kyrsten Sinema*
UT: Jim Matheson*
NV: Democratic nominee*
WY: John Barrasso
NE: Deb Fischer
MT: Jon Tester
ND: Heidi Heitkamp
WA: Maria Cantwell
CA: Dianne Feinstein
HI: Mazie Hirono

*pickup

>Dem winning Utah
Immediately thrown into trash.

[Cactus Jack]

Might as well have a shot at this.

PA: Bob Casey
OH: Sherrod Brown
IN: Joe Donnelly
WV: Evan Jenkins*
ME: Angus King
MO: Vicky Hartzler*
WI: Tammy Baldwin
NY: Kirsten Gillibrand
VT: Bernie Sanders
CT: Chris Murphy
RI: Sheldon Whitehouse
MA: Elizabeth Warren
NJ: Rush Holt**
MD: Ben Cardin
DE: Lisa Rochester***
VA: Tim Kaine
MS: Roger Wicker
TN: Bob Corker
FL: Bill Nelson
TX: Ted Cruz
NM: Martin Heinrich
AZ: Mark Kelly*
UT: Evan McMullin*
NV: Aaron Ford*
WY: John Barrasso
NE: Deb Fischer
MT: Jon Tester
ND: Heidi Heitkamp
WA: Maria Cantwell
CA: Dianne Feinstein
HI: Mazie Hirono

* Pickup
** Incumbent defeated in primary. I can dream.
*** Incumbent retired

[Kamala]

[...]
MO: Vicky Hartzler*
[...]

Oh, eww. Hartzler would probably be McCaskill's preferred opponent seeing as she's probably the most  conservative of all the possible candidates.

[Cactus Jack]

[...]
MO: Vicky Hartzler*
[...]

Oh, eww. Hartzler would probably be McCaskill's preferred opponent seeing as she's probably the most  conservative of all the possible candidates.

Is she hyperconservative or just a gaffe machine? According to the last National Journal ranking, Wagner was vastly more conservative than Hartzler, but admittedly the last time they published one was in 2013.

[Heisenberg]

[...]
MO: Vicky Hartzler*
[...]

Oh, eww. Hartzler would probably be McCaskill's preferred opponent seeing as she's probably the most  conservative of all the possible candidates.

Is she hyperconservative or just a gaffe machine? According to the last National Journal ranking, Wagner was vastly more conservative than Hartzler, but admittedly the last time they published one was in 2013.

She's more of a gaffe machine. Sam Graves was also thought to be considering, but he has a ton of controversies.

[_]

[...]
MO: Vicky Hartzler*
[...]

Oh, eww. Hartzler would probably be McCaskill's preferred opponent seeing as she's probably the most  conservative of all the possible candidates.

Is she hyperconservative or just a gaffe machine? According to the last National Journal ranking, Wagner was vastly more conservative than Hartzler, but admittedly the last time they published one was in 2013.

She's more of a gaffe machine. Sam Graves was also thought to be considering, but he has a ton of controversies.

Can we just go with the safe option and pick Wagner?

[Kamala]

[...]
MO: Vicky Hartzler*
[...]

Oh, eww. Hartzler would probably be McCaskill's preferred opponent seeing as she's probably the most  conservative of all the possible candidates.

Is she hyperconservative or just a gaffe machine? According to the last National Journal ranking, Wagner was vastly more conservative than Hartzler, but admittedly the last time they published one was in 2013.

She's more of a gaffe machine. Sam Graves was also thought to be considering, but he has a ton of controversies.

Can we just go with the safe option and pick Wagner?

I think she might have some stumbles in the primary, since she kinda floundered on Trump in 2016, even though she's working with him fully now.

I think all the Missouri Republican representatives voted for the AHCA, so if the Senate also passes it, it could become a major albatross on all the Republicans' necks.

I also think some attack ads against Wagner write themselves - she basically orchestrated the gutting of the CFPB.

[Cynthia]

PA: Bob Casey
OH: Sherrod Brown
IN: Luke Messer
WV: Joe Manchin
ME: Angus King
MO: Claire McCaskill
WI: Tammy Baldwin
NY: Kirsten Gillibrand
VT: Bernie Sanders
CT: Chris Murphy
RI: Sheldon Whitehouse
MA: Elizabeth Warren
NJ: Bob Menendez
MD: Ben Cardin
DE: Jack Merkell
VA: Tim Kaine
MS: Roger Wicker
TN: Bob Corker
FL: Bill Nelson
TX: Ted Cruz
NM: Martin Heinrich
AZ: Jeff Flake
UT: Republican nominee
NV: Jacky Rosen
WY: John Barrasso
NE: Deb Fischer
MT: Jon Tester
ND: Heidi Heitkamp
WA: Maria Cantwell
CA: Dianne Feinstein
HI: Tulsi Gabbard (bold)

[Rjjr77]

I think Tester is vulnerable, but has a better chance than Heitkamp.

And Becker probably won't be the nominee. State House to US Senate is a massive jump, and there are better possible candidates who are far more likely to run and win.

4 current senators made that jump. 3 others went state senate to us senate, and yet a few others went to the us senate as their first elected office, or had minor local offices

[MT Treasurer]

Wagner risks the base staying home

I get your point (and Hawley would probably do better than Wagner in rural MO), but it's not as if Trump won't endorse Wagner if she wins the nomination. Also, pretty sure the GOP base hates McCaskill so much that most Republicans will (reluctantly?) vote for Wagner in the end.