Clearly because of the WV polling bias that means he's actually down by 15!!!!
In all seriousness, this isn't implausible, and it could be that Manchin/Jenkins is a bit closer than this.
Generally I would agree, but I'd say Jenkins is definitely more popular than "generic R" in WV-03 (the district that is key to any Democratic victory). Though I guess you could argue that the opposite is true in the other two districts, but I don't think there would be a big difference here if they polled Jenkins vs. Manchin.
I believe all red state Democratic incumbents except McCaskill will be up big in the early polls, but all of these races (except ND) will tighten significantly as the campaign goes on.
Races typically tighten more as a result of the national environment. Is there anything to suggest that will happen in a way beneficial to Republicans?
Not just national environment but early leaders disappear as we see less cross-over voting & more partisanship. It's like Hillary losing significant chunk of Bernie voters early but as time goes on, tempers cool & you compare the 2 candidates, you come over. Manchin & D-Incumbents are getting big cross-over & Republican leaning votes which will come down.
Also this is only a voting intention & there's 9% undecided with a "Generic Republican", you could have a strong Republican candidate with a good campaign or these 9% could be GOP leaning voters unwilling to commit without seeing a candidate. Either way Justice, Manchin typically have run 40-40% ahead of the Dem national mood, so it is definitely possible for Manchin to win !
