WV-PPD: Manchin holding early 9-point lead over "generic Republican"
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  WV-PPD: Manchin holding early 9-point lead over "generic Republican"
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Author Topic: WV-PPD: Manchin holding early 9-point lead over "generic Republican"  (Read 4438 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: June 16, 2017, 01:23:10 PM »

50% Joe Manchin (D)
41% "Generic Republican"

Trump approval: 62/31 (+31)
Manchin approval: 57/39 (+18)

The 2018 West Virginia Senate Poll was conducted from June 8 to June 14 and is based on 901 interviews of likely voters participating in the PPD Internet Polling Panel. The Mountain State Battleground Poll, a subsample of the PPD Battleground Senate Poll, or the Generic Senate Ballot, was collected in a separate statewide sample.

Link.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1 on: June 16, 2017, 01:25:45 PM »

These results are workable and definately give Joe an advantage/lean, but I would have expected better results.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
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« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2017, 01:28:35 PM »

No Manchin/Jenkins numbers?  Dumb.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: June 16, 2017, 01:29:56 PM »

Lol People’s Pundit Daily
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heatcharger
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« Reply #4 on: June 16, 2017, 01:30:12 PM »

The numbers look believable, but this pollster is highly suspect.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: June 16, 2017, 01:38:48 PM »


Their "national tracker" was pretty bad, but IIRC their statewide surveys were quite accurate. Also, it's better than having no data.

But yeah, they should have polled Manchin vs. Jenkins and Manchin vs. Morrisey as well, not that (early) polls mean anything anymore.

Don't see what's so implausible about Manchin +9, but okay.
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: June 16, 2017, 02:03:41 PM »

Clearly because of the WV polling bias that means he's actually down by 15!!!!

In all seriousness, this isn't implausible, and it could be that Manchin/Jenkins is a bit closer than this.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #7 on: June 17, 2017, 03:52:56 PM »

I'd argue Manchin is currently trailing Jenkins, and is tied with Morriessy. Trump is really popular in West Virginia, and Manchin's position in leadership probably doesn't help him. Pulling an Arlen Specter, probably knocks out one of Jenkins/Morrisey but not both. He (Manchin) would still lose the primary, just like Specter did.
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windjammer
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« Reply #8 on: June 17, 2017, 05:32:46 PM »

Clearly because of the WV polling bias that means he's actually down by 15!!!!

In all seriousness, this isn't implausible, and it could be that Manchin/Jenkins is a bit closer than this.
Match ups are never closer than "generic"
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #9 on: June 17, 2017, 05:58:10 PM »

Manchin isn't gonna lose.
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« Reply #10 on: June 18, 2017, 01:09:40 AM »

Clearly because of the WV polling bias that means he's actually down by 15!!!!

In all seriousness, this isn't implausible, and it could be that Manchin/Jenkins is a bit closer than this.
Match ups are never closer than "generic"

Generally I would agree, but I'd say Jenkins is definitely more popular than "generic R" in WV-03 (the district that is key to any Democratic victory). Though I guess you could argue that the opposite is true in the other two districts, but I don't think there would be a big difference here if they polled Jenkins vs. Manchin.

I believe all red state Democratic incumbents except McCaskill will be up big in the early polls, but all of these races (except ND) will tighten significantly as the campaign goes on.

Races typically tighten more as a result of the national environment. Is there anything to suggest that will happen in a way beneficial to Republicans?

Not just national environment but early leaders disappear as we see less cross-over voting & more partisanship. It's like Hillary losing significant chunk of Bernie voters early but as time goes on, tempers cool & you compare the 2 candidates, you come over. Manchin & D-Incumbents are getting big cross-over & Republican leaning votes which will come down.

Also this is only a voting intention & there's 9% undecided with a "Generic Republican", you could have a strong Republican candidate with a good campaign or these 9% could be GOP leaning voters unwilling to commit without seeing a candidate. Either way Justice, Manchin typically have run 40-40% ahead of the Dem national mood, so it is definitely possible for Manchin to win !
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Person Man
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« Reply #11 on: June 18, 2017, 07:01:37 AM »

Democrats could gain in the senate if the election about a check on Trump and have minimal loses if Trump recovers to the point hes not a factor.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #12 on: June 18, 2017, 07:52:41 AM »

West Virginia might be the one state where "Generic Republican" does worse than an actual candidate, but this is still a good result for Manchin.
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windjammer
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« Reply #13 on: June 18, 2017, 08:05:24 AM »

^Exactly. I know people here think 2018 will be a massive Democratic wave year even in the "red" states, but I think all of these races will be highly competitive, with the GOP favored in IN and MO, and MT/WV/OH all as Tossups. We'll just have to see again. I'm not going to argue about this anymore, though.
I mean, I expect Trump to have a 35% approval rating. Meaning he will be unpopular in all these Trump dem states except ND and WV.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: June 18, 2017, 09:52:32 AM »

Manchin will win by 5 or 6 or so.
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Pollster
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« Reply #15 on: June 18, 2017, 10:24:50 AM »

I would assume Manchin vs. Jenkins is closer, but Manchin vs. any other GOP candidate looks about like this.

Manchin probably ends up winning by 4% against Jenkins and 7-8% against anybody else, unless Trump resigns the Presidency and declares his candidacy for this seat.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #16 on: June 18, 2017, 03:42:06 PM »

I have a lot of ties and roots in WV. A few months ago I'd agree, but ever since the floods, the public has largely turned on Manchin. He's not the same Manchin from 2012.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #17 on: June 18, 2017, 03:54:32 PM »

^Exactly. I know people here think 2018 will be a massive Democratic wave year even in the "red" states, but I think all of these races will be highly competitive, with the GOP favored in IN and MO, and MT/WV/OH all as Tossups. We'll just have to see again. I'm not going to argue about this anymore, though.
I mean, I expect Trump to have a 35% approval rating. Meaning he will be unpopular in all these Trump dem states except ND and WV.

It's really not worth arguing over. Half of Atlas thinks that 2018 will reflect 2016, so all we can do is wait and see who ends up right

Before a long absence I was actually an active poster in like 06/07 and yes Atlas has a tendency to have recency bias and thinks the map is set in stone. Probably because of the younger population. I saw 06/08/10/12/14/16. A lot of our posters may only faintly remember the 2008 election. Back in June 2008 it would be unthinkable of seeing Hillary Clinton losing West Virginia by a nearly 3 to 1 margin in a future election.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #18 on: June 18, 2017, 04:01:31 PM »

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Badger
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« Reply #19 on: June 18, 2017, 08:40:18 PM »

Windjammer was 100% right in noting that actual matchups are never as close as runs against generic D or generic R. That absolutely applies to Jenkins as well.

All Things Considered, these are pretty encouraging numbers for manchin
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Skye
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« Reply #20 on: June 19, 2017, 02:42:38 PM »

I still have Manchin as the favorite, all things considered.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #21 on: July 03, 2017, 08:19:31 PM »

As someone on the left half of the Democratic Party, I don't understand how anyone could want Manchin to get primaried by some ultra-progressive anti-coal liberal. When choosing a candidate, I would take a Blue Dog Democrat with a 75% chance of winning over someone I ideologically agree with more with a 15% chance of winning.
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Pericles
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« Reply #22 on: July 04, 2017, 12:00:49 AM »

Manchin did win by double digits twice, and by 24% in 2012 while Obama lost by a similar margin. Manchin might have been vulnerable if it was President Hillary Clinton, but she's not.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #23 on: July 04, 2017, 12:19:26 AM »

As someone on the left half of the Democratic Party, I don't understand how anyone could want Manchin to get primaried by some ultra-progressive anti-coal liberal. When choosing a candidate, I would take a Blue Dog Democrat with a 75% chance of winning over someone I ideologically agree with more with a 15% chance of winning.

Exactly!
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JMT
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« Reply #24 on: July 04, 2017, 09:51:53 AM »

As someone on the left half of the Democratic Party, I don't understand how anyone could want Manchin to get primaried by some ultra-progressive anti-coal liberal. When choosing a candidate, I would take a Blue Dog Democrat with a 75% chance of winning over someone I ideologically agree with more with a 15% chance of winning.

Agree 100%
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