2008 scenario

[WalterMitty]

make maps and popular vote percentage predictions for this scenario in 2008:

frist/guiliani (R)
edwards/harold ford (D)
gore/mark dayton (I/Green)

[dunn]

[dunn]

frist/guiliani (R)                     265
edwards/harold ford (D)       248
gore/mark dayton (I/Green)  25
 
reps win it in the house
 

[Kodratos]

Dem  234
Rep   304

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Democrats win 355-183 in EV

Democrats recieve 49% of the vote
Republicans 44%
Greens 6%

[WalterMitty]

popular vote totals:
rep: 42%
dem: 41%
green: 17%

[Michael Z]

frist/guiliani (R) --- 288
edwards/harold ford (D) ---  232  
gore/mark dayton (I/Green)  --- 18

A Gore/Dayton ticket would definitely take votes from Edwards/Ford in key battleground states like PA, NH, or IA. Think the Nader Effect, but bigger.

[YRABNNRM]

Democrats win 355-183 in EV

Democrats recieve 49% of the vote
Republicans 44%
Greens 6%

You're kidding yourself. Theres no way the democratic ticket wouldn't be effected drastically(Like TR in 1912)

[WalterMitty]

what about this scenario:

the conservatives areoutraged that guiliani is placed on the republican ticket, so john ashcroft carries their banner in an independent run.

so what would the results be for this matchup:
frist/giuliani (R)
edwards/ford(D)
gore/dayton(G)
ashcroft/santorum(I)

[ilikeverin]

either MN is Rep or Ind in the 1st scenario.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Democrats win 355-183 in EV

Democrats recieve 49% of the vote
Republicans 44%
Greens 6%

You're kidding yourself. Theres no way the democratic ticket wouldn't be effected drastically(Like TR in 1912)

The republican ticket is too polarized.  Guliani's as far left left as republicans go, and frist is very conservative, they wouldn't get along too well.  Nor do I think Frist is a strong canidate at all.  Edwards and Ford win big on likability.

[The Dowager Mod]

i could live with that

[Reaganfan]

Frist/Giuliani- 337
Edwards/Ford-201

[Gustaf]

what about this scenario:

the conservatives areoutraged that guiliani is placed on the republican ticket, so john ashcroft carries their banner in an independent run.

so what would the results be for this matchup:
frist/giuliani (R)
edwards/ford(D)
gore/dayton(G)
ashcroft/santorum(I)

That is more interesting scenario. I think that Edwards wins, since he would do well in the South, and Ashcroft would hurt there. The Gore vote on the other hand would be more spread out...something like this:



Edwards: 289

Frist: 249

PV:

Edwards: 46%

Frist: 43%

Gore: 6%

Ashcroft: 5%

[WalterMitty]

you think gore would only draw 6%?

[© tweed]

In a two-way race:



Edwards 350-188

"No Dimocrat has ever won an election without winnin' fave states in the sowth"

[Josh/Devilman88]

Edwards could not bring that many states in the south.

[Ben.]

Edwards could not bring that many states in the south.

In a race that was not against Bush he could... had he gotten the democrat nomination and picked a solid southern VP to boost his moderate credentials and plug the gap in his experience, John Breaux being an obvious choice but non southern potentials could be Richardson, Reid, Dodd, Bill Nelson or Gephardt... personally I think Bill Nelson could have been a good pick but so could have Richardson, he would have possibly pulled off a slim win in NC and made LA and AR competitive but his real success would have been with his populist message in the Midwest and steel states where he would have proven a very very powerful candidate and effective campaigner, light-years beyond Kerry at any rate…

[PBrunsel]

Frist:48.3% of Popular Vote, 283 Electoral Votes

Edwards: 44.1% of Popular Vote, 230 Electoral Votes

Gore: 7.3% of Popular Vote, 25 Electoral Votes

Others: 0.3% of Popular Vote, 0 Electoral Votes

[© tweed]

Edwards could not bring that many states in the south.

He could..he is the more 'populist' of the two candidates, so that gives him AR and LA; he is more moderate so he gets FL; Va is tredning Dem, and will be in play by 2008; NC is his home state.

It's all possible

[phk]

bump-