VA-WaPo/GMU: Northam and Perriello hold double digit leads over Gillespie
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September 24, 2021, 03:53:12 PM

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  2021 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virgini)
  VA-WaPo/GMU: Northam and Perriello hold double digit leads over Gillespie
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Author Topic: VA-WaPo/GMU: Northam and Perriello hold double digit leads over Gillespie  (Read 1726 times)
heatcharger
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« on: May 22, 2017, 07:04:37 AM »
« edited: May 23, 2017, 10:03:31 PM by heatcharger »

Link.

Crosstabs.

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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2017, 07:09:23 AM »

Well,
I don't think Gillespie is a terrible candidate, but Trump is going to have a 35% approval ratings in VA, so I wouldn't be surprised in the end if Perriello or Northam wins by double digits, like Mcdonnell trounced a decent candidate in 2009.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2017, 07:39:18 AM »

Remeber when all the serious Atlas people said this was a toss up? Lol

I imagine most of the undecideds are Republicans, like normal in Virgina, but that still should result in a 5-10 point win for either Democrat.

Likely Dem
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2017, 09:49:52 AM »

So much winning...

Likely D at this point.
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SoLongAtlas
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« Reply #4 on: May 22, 2017, 10:04:27 AM »

Good news.
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #5 on: May 22, 2017, 10:30:37 AM »

Like I said Dems, in VA will win decively, because of the Trump effect 51-46%. Due VA being a DC suburb now and Blacks in Richmond
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #6 on: May 22, 2017, 11:43:21 AM »

FWIW, they also had McAuliffe up 11 points in late October.

I still think this one will be closer than most people here expect, but Northam should win in the end. However, if Gillespie DOES lose in a landslide, I really doubt this race (or the special election, for that matter) would have been winnable for Republicans with Clinton in the White House either. Anyway, Lean D for now.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: May 22, 2017, 11:47:49 AM »

FWIW, they also had McAuliffe up 11 points in late October.

I still think this one will be closer than most people here expect, but Northam should win in the end. However, if Gillespie DOES lose in a landslide, I really doubt this race (or the special election, for that matter) would have been winnable for Republicans with Clinton in the White House either. Anyway, Lean D for now.

1) Republicans make up their minds real late in Virginia
2) The Government shutdown had just ended on 10/16, so I think that number was a bit inflated at that time

Without the shutdown I think Cuccinelli wins by like 1-2%.

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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #8 on: May 22, 2017, 02:46:43 PM »

Here we go, we shall beat Comstock
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Skye
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« Reply #9 on: May 23, 2017, 07:51:21 AM »

Really hard to see Gillespie winning here with Trump's awful numbers in the state.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #10 on: May 23, 2017, 09:47:28 PM »

hahaha this is terrific! Gillespie getting a well deserved smashing.
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CapoteMonster
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« Reply #11 on: May 23, 2017, 10:02:22 PM »

I can't view the article. Does anyone have the crosstabs?
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heatcharger
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« Reply #12 on: May 23, 2017, 10:03:40 PM »

I can't view the article. Does anyone have the crosstabs?

Just updated the OP.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #13 on: May 23, 2017, 10:43:03 PM »

The more progressive democratic candidate has a bigger lead? Wow haven't heard of that happening before. Tongue
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heatcharger
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« Reply #14 on: May 23, 2017, 10:49:41 PM »

The more progressive democratic candidate has a bigger lead? Wow haven't heard of that happening before. Tongue

This is adorable.
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○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
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« Reply #15 on: May 23, 2017, 10:51:58 PM »

The more progressive democratic candidate has a bigger lead? Wow haven't heard of that happening before. Tongue

It happens a lot, but it's actually a bit of a surprise that it happens even in Virginia.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #16 on: May 24, 2017, 01:17:45 PM »

The more progressive democratic candidate has a bigger lead? Wow haven't heard of that happening before. Tongue

Lol. But seriously, what is this idea that Perriello is more electable than Northam based on anyway? That he has more appeal in rural areas than Northam? I highly doubt that'll be the case on election day, and I also doubt that he would do better than Northam in the general election, despite what all of these polls are saying now.

If I were a Democrat, I'd probably root for Northam here. He's the safe choice IMO.
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #17 on: May 24, 2017, 01:29:41 PM »

The more progressive democratic candidate has a bigger lead? Wow haven't heard of that happening before. Tongue

Lol. But seriously, what is this idea that Perriello is more electable than Northam based on anyway? That he has more appeal in rural areas than Northam? I highly doubt that'll be the case on election day, and I also doubt that he would do better than Northam in the general election, despite what all of these polls are saying now.

If I were a Democrat, I'd probably root for Northam here. He's the safe choice IMO.

Northam would be a great candidate to have in Alabama with Moore as the nominee, or Louisiana with Duke. But that's not what's at play in Virginia. If Democrats can afford to be dynamic, then we should be.
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Shameless Lefty Hack
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« Reply #18 on: June 08, 2017, 03:45:55 PM »

The more progressive democratic candidate has a bigger lead? Wow haven't heard of that happening before. Tongue

Lol. But seriously, what is this idea that Perriello is more electable than Northam based on anyway? That he has more appeal in rural areas than Northam? I highly doubt that'll be the case on election day, and I also doubt that he would do better than Northam in the general election, despite what all of these polls are saying now.

If I were a Democrat, I'd probably root for Northam here. He's the safe choice IMO.

Northam would be a great candidate to have in Alabama with Moore as the nominee, or Louisiana with Duke. But that's not what's at play in Virginia. If Democrats can afford to be dynamic, then we should be.

We want Perriello because we trust him more to actually fight for and implement the policies that we want. Irrespective of whether or not he's more "electable" (he is) he'll be a more effective implementer of left and liberal ideas.

But if he kept even his 2010 margin in the VA-5 and performed like a normal Democrat in NOVA, Richmond &c that would be pretty neat.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #19 on: June 14, 2017, 07:01:17 PM »

The more progressive democratic candidate has a bigger lead? Wow haven't heard of that happening before. Tongue

Lol. But seriously, what is this idea that Perriello is more electable than Northam based on anyway? That he has more appeal in rural areas than Northam? I highly doubt that'll be the case on election day, and I also doubt that he would do better than Northam in the general election, despite what all of these polls are saying now.

If I were a Democrat, I'd probably root for Northam here. He's the safe choice IMO.

Northam would be a great candidate to have in Alabama with Moore as the nominee, or Louisiana with Duke. But that's not what's at play in Virginia. If Democrats can afford to be dynamic, then we should be.

We want Perriello because we trust him more to actually fight for and implement the policies that we want. Irrespective of whether or not he's more "electable" (he is) he'll be a more effective implementer of left and liberal ideas.

But if he kept even his 2010 margin in the VA-5 and performed like a normal Democrat in NOVA, Richmond &c that would be pretty neat.
Virginia doesn't go for populists, whether they be on the left or the right, as evident by Trump's 5% loss in the state.  They go for technocrats and establishment candidates, as evidenced by Clinton's, Northam's, and Gillespie's victories.
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