Without the 22nd Amendment, How Many Terms Would Each President Have Sought?

[Free Bird]

If the 22nd Amendment never existed, how many terms would the Presidents after it had sought?

My Thoughts:
Eisenhower: Still retires
JFK: Still cut short
LBJ: Still declines
Nixon: Still resigns
Ford: Still defeated
Carter: Still defeated
Reagan: Still retires
Bush 1: Still defeated
Clinton: Seeks third term, defeated
Bush 2: Declines to run
Obama: Seeks third term, defeated

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Everything is the same from IRL, except Bill runs in 2000 and Obama in 2016. Unsure about Bill's chances in 2000, but I think Obama would have won reelection in 2016.

[heatcharger]

Obama wins a third term.

[Free Bird]

Obama wins a third term.

If his approval was like it was during the actual GE, then of course. I just don't think it would be, and Trump would point out his perceived shortcomings to the midwest.

[heatcharger]

Obama wins a third term.

If his approval was like it was during the actual GE, then of course. I just don't think it would be, and Trump would point out his perceived shortcomings to the midwest.

Obama would've been able to find 11k more votes in Michigan and 23k in Wisconsin. I'm confident in that. Pennsylvania is more doubtful, but Obama was a much better candidate than Clinton with pretty much every demographic, so I believe he would've pulled it off. Plus, he'd be much better equipped to take FL, NC, and GA.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Clinton likely stays on till 2008 , which then would be a major GOP landslide . That would mean the president right now likely would be Mitt Romney

[kyc0705]

I could conceivably see Clinton and Obama winning third terms.

[Kingpoleon]

Clinton wins in 2000, but further deregulation combine with the stress of a balanced budget. Howard Dean manages to almost out-primary Vice President Gore, despite the strong efforts against Dean by DNC Chair Bill Richardson. In the general election either John Kasich or J. C. Watts runs alongside Senator Olympia Snowe, winning the largest victory against an incumbent President since Hoover.

[dw93]

My thoughts:

Eisenhower: Still retires

Kennedy: Still is Cut short

LBJ: Still Declines in '68

Nixon: Still resigns in '74

Ford: Still Loses

Carter: Still Loses

Reagan: Would want to and would seriously consider it, but in the end, Nancy would stop him from doing it. He still retires.

HW Bush: Still Loses.

Clinton: All depends on Hillary's Political ambitions. If she still wants the Senate Seat in New York, despite Bill being able to run again, he steps down after two terms. If she wants Bill to have a third term, he runs for it and narrowly defeats Bush or McCain. With 9/11 and the DotCom bust and recession in 2001, Bill has a tough third term and the stress negatively affects his health, causing an earlier bypass surgery. He steps down after three terms and the GOP wins decisively in 2004. 2008 and 2012 are toss up in this timeline.

W. Bush: Steps down after two terms without any hesitation.

Obama: If he feels he has a better shot at winning than Hillary or Biden  and really thinks his legacy is at stake, he runs. Whether he wins or depends on who he's running against. Keep in mind, he is a smarter and better campaigner than Hillary. If Cruz or Trump is the nominee, Obama wins. If Kasich is the nominee, Obama loses. Jeb! and Rubio are in the toss up category. 

[tomhguy]

My thoughts:

Eisenhower: Retires

Kennedy: Assassinated

LBJ: Declines in '68

Nixon: Retires

Ford: Defeated

Carter: Defeated

Reagan: Goes for 3rd term and wins against Dukakis. Retires in 92'

HW Bush: Wins nomination in 92' but is defeated in a big landslide ( a lot bigger than real life (1984 for Democrats)).

Clinton: Goes on until '00

W. Bush: Defeated by 3000 votes in Florida.

Gore: Goes for Two terms but is defeated in '04 by...

McCain: Goes on for two terms. Defeats Hillary in '08. There is no economic crash

Obama: Beats Romney in '12 and then beats Rubio by a very small margin in '16

[Former President tack50]

My guess:

Eisenhower: Still retires, was probably too old at that point and I think not super popular? (not terrible either but still)

JFK: Still dies

LBJ: Could have kept running but didn't so again, doesn't go for a 3rd term

Nixon: See above

Ford: Lost reelection, nothing would change without the 22nd

Carter: See above

Reagan: Most likely he still retires. If he does run again though, he wins but by a small-ish margin. Once it's obvious that his mental health isn't good either he steps down (and HW Bush becomes president) or is removed via the process from the 25th ammendment (and HW Bush becomes acting president for the remainder of his term). If he makes it through the entire term without either happening, he retires and Democrats win in 1992 in a large victory (close to 1996).

HW Bush: See Carter and Ford

Clinton: Probably runs again and wins by a small margin, runs for a 4th time and loses (9/11 doesn't have an influence on 2004's outcome although it would benefit Democrats in the 2002 midterms). 2008 is a tossup although it's probably won by the incumbent Republican president. 2012 is won by Democrats, also by a small margin. 2016 is won by the incumbent Democrat but by a larger margin.

Bush: Probably still retires. If he does run he is either defeated in the primaries, or loses in a landslide close to 1984 levels.

Obama: Runs for a third term and wins by a margin slightly smaller than 2012

[mjwatts1983]

Here are the presidents impacted by the 22nd Amendment's two-term limits clause

Dwight Eisenhower
He would have likely deferred back to tradition and not have sought a third term. If he did, he might have done better than Nixon but certainly Kennedy was running on a change platform. And how would the televised debate looked if it was JFK vs. Ike instead of JFK vs. Nixon?

Ronald Reagan
He was still popular which is why HW Bush was able to win in 1988 but at the same time Iran-Contra might have been more a focal point in the campaign. If the Ds still nominate Dukakis, expect Willie Horton to appear. Lee Atwater was a player in Republican politics at this time and likely would have been involved in a third Reagan general election bid.

The wild card is this: Reagan's health. He left office when he was almost 77. Four more years in the White House likely would have caused his decline quicker. In the real timeline, he disclosed his Alzheimer's in 1994 and retreated from public view until his death ten years later. The campaign would have kept anything about Reagan's health a secret. If it became serious enough, it might have  triggered the medical incapacitation clauses of the 25th Amendment (or whatever amendment it is called since there is no 22nd in this exercise) resulting in HW Bush (or whoever his VP would be) as POTUS for a period of time.

Reagan might have taken a page from FDR who in 1940 was mum about seeking a third term and instead chose to allow the Democrats at the convention to have their say. FDR nearly won the nomination by acclimation but in the running mate balloting, the delegates picked Henry Wallace, FDR's Agriculture Secretary. Reagan likely would have seen Kansas Senator Bob Dole, Indiana Senator Dan Quayle, and other Republicans challenge him for the nomination. Or perhaps his sitting VP challenge him in a rematch of 1980. It would not be out of the realm if Reagan dumped Bush for another VP since there was some friction between the two that stemmed from the 1980 primary.

Bill Clinton
Likely yes to seek and probably would have won a third term in 2000. I do not see Clinton making the same mistakes that Gore made towards the end on the campaign trail as well as taking the R nominee (likely Texas Governor George W. Bush) very seriously and surgically taking his arguments apart.

Would have MonicaGate come up? Certainly, but as shown in the 1998 midterms, the Ds survived because the public saw what it was all about given that Clinton's job approvals remained high throughout the ordeal. I think the public did not want to re-litigate that again.

Clinton wins in 2000.... boy that starts a chain reaction to a lot of what-ifs...
Is there a 9/11? Which likely means no Afghanistan, Iraq, Gitmo, PATRIOT Act
There are no Bush tax cuts, no financial deregulation so no 2008 financial crisis
What role does Hillary Clinton play in a Bill Clinton third (or even fourth term)?
Someone mentioned the balanced budget, does that allow for Bill to be more bold in a third term such as go for health care reform?
Bill's health: he did have heart surgery in the early 2000s. Again the presidency does put a strain on a person.
Is Barack Obama still playing in Illinois politics or has he retreated back to academia?
What becomes of the Republican Party?
One constant is that Donald Trump is in the public view in some capacity...

George W. Bush
No and if W Bush was on the ballot in 2008, he probably would have done worse than McCain. Remember his approvals as he was leaving office was in the 30s. Imagine the financial crisis happening as Bush is campaigning for a third term.

Barack Obama
Obama would have gone for a third term despite charges from the opposition that he was becoming a dictator (which was what FDR's opponents said in 1940) and likely would have won. Obama left office with approvals in the high 50s and during the 2016 campaign polled more favorably than Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

Maybe would have dropped Biden in favorable for someone younger and could carry a key battleground state or even expand the map. And again, as someone mentions, it depends on who Obama drew from the Rs. In 2012, the only R that the Obama camp feared was John Huntsman, the former Utah governor & US Ambassador to China. Certainly the Obama team would have taken every R seriously, including Trump.

[mvd10]

Here are the presidents impacted by the 22nd Amendment's two-term limits clause

Dwight Eisenhower
He would have likely deferred back to tradition and not have sought a third term. If he did, he might have done better than Nixon but certainly Kennedy was running on a change platform. And how would the televised debate looked if it was JFK vs. Ike instead of JFK vs. Nixon?

Ronald Reagan
He was still popular which is why HW Bush was able to win in 1988 but at the same time Iran-Contra might have been more a focal point in the campaign. If the Ds still nominate Dukakis, expect Willie Horton to appear. Lee Atwater was a player in Republican politics at this time and likely would have been involved in a third Reagan general election bid.

The wild card is this: Reagan's health. He left office when he was almost 77. Four more years in the White House likely would have caused his decline quicker. In the real timeline, he disclosed his Alzheimer's in 1994 and retreated from public view until his death ten years later. The campaign would have kept anything about Reagan's health a secret. If it became serious enough, it might have  triggered the medical incapacitation clauses of the 25th Amendment (or whatever amendment it is called since there is no 22nd in this exercise) resulting in HW Bush (or whoever his VP would be) as POTUS for a period of time.

Reagan might have taken a page from FDR who in 1940 was mum about seeking a third term and instead chose to allow the Democrats at the convention to have their say. FDR nearly won the nomination by acclimation but in the running mate balloting, the delegates picked Henry Wallace, FDR's Agriculture Secretary. Reagan likely would have seen Kansas Senator Bob Dole, Indiana Senator Dan Quayle, and other Republicans challenge him for the nomination. Or perhaps his sitting VP challenge him in a rematch of 1980. It would not be out of the realm if Reagan dumped Bush for another VP since there was some friction between the two that stemmed from the 1980 primary.

Bill Clinton
Likely yes to seek and probably would have won a third term in 2000. I do not see Clinton making the same mistakes that Gore made towards the end on the campaign trail as well as taking the R nominee (likely Texas Governor George W. Bush) very seriously and surgically taking his arguments apart.

Would have MonicaGate come up? Certainly, but as shown in the 1998 midterms, the Ds survived because the public saw what it was all about given that Clinton's job approvals remained high throughout the ordeal. I think the public did not want to re-litigate that again.

Clinton wins in 2000.... boy that starts a chain reaction to a lot of what-ifs...
Is there a 9/11? Which likely means no Afghanistan, Iraq, Gitmo, PATRIOT Act
There are no Bush tax cuts, no financial deregulation so no 2008 financial crisis
What role does Hillary Clinton play in a Bill Clinton third (or even fourth term)?
Someone mentioned the balanced budget, does that allow for Bill to be more bold in a third term such as go for health care reform?
Bill's health: he did have heart surgery in the early 2000s. Again the presidency does put a strain on a person.
Is Barack Obama still playing in Illinois politics or has he retreated back to academia?
What becomes of the Republican Party?
One constant is that Donald Trump is in the public view in some capacity...

George W. Bush
No and if W Bush was on the ballot in 2008, he probably would have done worse than McCain. Remember his approvals as he was leaving office was in the 30s. Imagine the financial crisis happening as Bush is campaigning for a third term.

Barack Obama
Obama would have gone for a third term despite charges from the opposition that he was becoming a dictator (which was what FDR's opponents said in 1940) and likely would have won. Obama left office with approvals in the high 50s and during the 2016 campaign polled more favorably than Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

Maybe would have dropped Biden in favorable for someone younger and could carry a key battleground state or even expand the map. And again, as someone mentions, it depends on who Obama drew from the Rs. In 2012, the only R that the Obama camp feared was John Huntsman, the former Utah governor & US Ambassador to China. Certainly the Obama team would have taken every R seriously, including Trump.

Financial deregulation didn't pass under Bush. Most of that happened in the 80s and 90s. Bush actually wanted to regulate Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Anyway, we should not forget that (almost?) nobody sought a third term before Roosevelt. Coolidge for example was extremely popular when he left office and he easily would have won reelection, but he didn't seek a third term.

Clinton, Obama and Reagan were the only ones that might have ran for a third term imo. But Reagan's age probably would have convinced him not to run. Obama seems like a guy who would respect the tradition and in April 2015 (when Obama would have had to decide) Hillary was looking like a decent candidate. But there is a possibility that he would have ran, and he would have won a third term in that case. Bill Clinton probably would have sought a third term, and I think he would have won.

[BuckeyeNut]

Obama would run and win a third term easy. Not having the same negative image as HRC, more suburban moderate Republicans who tipped districts like GA-06 at the Presidential level would have come on board, and he wouldn't have bled Black and Hispanic voters like Clinton.

Retains, MI, WI, and PA, and probably wins back NC, maybe Georgia. Still probably loses Ohio, but by a much closer margin.