UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[Tintrlvr]

Now that the deal is guaranteed to get voted down, no one is going to want to vote for it. We're looking at another defeat by a 200-vote margin.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The vote could actually be closer this time, because a few MPs who had voted against the deal in January have now indicated that they support it. The Guardian counts 14 switchers right now. Of course, if it even remotely stays in the vicinity of that number May's deal would still get soundly defeated tonight.

At least 12 Tories planning to back May tonight having voted against her in January

The Tory MP Sir Robert Syms, who voted against the deal in January, has just told May that he will vote for the deal this evening.

The Spectator has got a list of 10 Tory MPs who were rebels in January but who have now changed their minds. Their names are: Ben Bradley, Nigel Evans, Robert Halfon, Greg Hands, John Lamont, Johnny Mercer, Mike Penning, Mark Pritchard, Derek Thomas, Martin Vickers.

Syms takes the total to 11.

Colleagues tell me Sir Graham Brady is also switching, meaning that we have got the names of 12 Tories who voted against in January who are voting for tonight.

The Labour MPs Caroline Flint and Jim Fitzpatrick are also expected to vote for the deal tonight, having voted against it in January.

That gives May 14 switchers – which reduces the size of the majority against her by 28.

[Silent Hunter]

Another three figure defeat likely, I'd say. This deal won't come back a third time and MPs will probably vote for an extension over No Deal.

Meanwhile Corbyn is still trying to push his customs union/Single Market alignment proposal that the Commons has voted down twice. Even that would a future relationship issue; the EU is not going to do a whole new Withdrawal Agreement without a long Article 50 extension.

[LabourJersey]

So at this point, is there any possible deal that a majority of Parliament could agree on?

It seems to me that the Hard Brexiteers aren't giving an inch from their bizarre demands, (presumably because they won't mind a hard Brexit?) and Labour seems convinced they could somehow get or create a better deal than May's, which is a plan I still don't understand.

[parochial boy]

If the the history of the United Kingdom in the second half of the 2010s winds up being a referendum, followed by a complete fail at negotiations, followed by not actually leaving the EU - and all thanks to an extremist wing of the Conservative party who, by their own actions, wound up actually saving the institution they thought they were going to destroy...

Would be quite a funny story to tell tbh

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Here come dat general election.

[Middle-aged Europe]

 391 against, 242 in favour of the deal.

May: Vote on no-deal Brexit tomorrow. If no-deal Brexit is rejected, vote on extending Article 50 on Thursday.

[Gass3268]

At this point should the UK just tell the EU, lol jk?

[DavidB.]

Ugh. This is going to mean an extension of A50 and possibly a second referendum or a GE. May is betraying Brexit. It needs to be a no-deal now.

[Gass3268]

Ugh. This is going to mean an extension of A50 and possibly a second referendum or a GE. May is betraying Brexit. It needs to be a no-deal now.

Yeah, no way there is a majority for that.

[YL]

Seven opposition MPs voted with the Government: ex-Labour Independents Ian Austin (Dudley North) and Frank Field (Birkenhead), ex-LD Independent Stephen Lloyd (Eastbourne), ex-UUP Independent Sylvia Hermon (North Down), and three Labour MPs, Kevin Barron (Rother Valley), Caroline Flint (Don Valley) and John Mann (Bassetlaw).  (Those last three constituencies border each other.)

All other opposition MPs, including TIG, DUP and the other Independents (including Fiona Onasanya) voted against the Government.

One Tory MP abstained, football referee Douglas Ross (Moray).  75 Tories voted against the Government.

[President Johnson]

Honestly, I'm now for a Brexit without a deal. We've had enough of this circus. The European Union must get back its actual business and not be consumed with this.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I must say May is both extremely lucky and extremely unlucky. Lucky in short term, because due to fixed term and confidence vote rules within her own party she can cling onto the premiership, even though most of past PMs would've resigned over less devastating defeats. Unlucky in long term, because she'll go down in history as one of the most pathetic Prime Ministers.

[Suburbia]

May should resign.

Priti Patel would be better. She would show diversity, and she is younger.

Priti, Boris, Mercer would all be better choices than May

Cameron and May will go down as bad PMs.

[parochial boy]

Dua Lipa would also show diversity. She's Albanian

[Suburbia]

Here come dat general election.

The general election that Boris would win.

Corbyn is facing the Omar problem= antisemitism.

[Silent Hunter]

Seven opposition MPs voted with the Government: ex-Labour Independents Ian Austin (Dudley North) and Frank Field (Birkenhead), ex-LD Independent Stephen Lloyd (Eastbourne), ex-UUP Independent Sylvia Hermon (North Down), and three Labour MPs, Kevin Barron (Rother Valley), Caroline Flint (Don Valley) and John Mann (Bassetlaw).  (Those last three constituencies border each other.)

All other opposition MPs, including TIG, DUP and the other Independents (including Fiona Onasanya) voted against the Government.

One Tory MP abstained, football referee Douglas Ross (Moray).  75 Tories voted against the Government.

Moray didn't vote as his wife has gone into labour with their first child.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Tonight's statements from leading EU figures like Donald Tusk or Manfred Weber indicate that they need to see an actual reason and purpose for extending Article 50. What does the UK want to do with an extension, specifically? Holding a snap election? Or a organizing a second referendum? At the same time, the EU has made clear that it doesn't consider wanting to renegotiate the deal another time as a legitimate reason.

[Former President tack50]

Honestly, I'm now for a Brexit without a deal. We've had enough of this circus. The European Union must get back its actual business and not be consumed with this.

I think May's deal was the best deal. Ideally there should have been some sort of bipartisan Labour-Conservative deal, but of course Labour had a huge incentive not to cooperate.

Also, worth noting that the extension has to be ratified by the EU unanimously. I don't think the EU will reject it, but if it does, it's no deal whenever the UK finally drives off the cliff.

[Sestak]

So. 150 vote-margin defeat, and then an impossible vote on a no-deal tomorrow. Then an extension of Article 50, which may need to be accompanied by either another referendum or a general election for EU to approve.

Is the UK due for a fourth major national election in just over 3 years?

[Hash]

Dua Lipa would also show diversity. She's Albanian

Dua Lipa would probably do a better job at managing this trainwreck than any Tory clown would.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Tonight's statements from leading EU figures like Donald Tusk or Manfred Weber indicate that they need to see an actual reason and purpose for extending Article 50. What does the UK want to do with an extension, specifically? Holding a snap election? Or a organizing a second referendum? At the same time, the EU has made clear that it doesn't consider wanting to renegotiate the deal another time as a legitimate reason.

Understandable. Let's face it, the only way there is going to be a majority for any path forward in the HoC is if the EU puts its foot down and refuse to give Britain an extension, forcing a majority of parliament to agree to a deal or be kicked out with-out no deal at all. Otherwise we'll just be stuck in negotiation-limbo forever. 

[DavidB.]

Dua Lipa would also show diversity. She's Albanian

May create new issues when Serbia enters the EU - a Kosovar backstop?

Dua Lipa would also show diversity. She's Albanian

Dua Lipa would probably do a better job at managing this trainwreck than any Tory clown would.

Low bar.

[The Mikado]

May should resign by April 1.

Boris Johnson cannot be taken seriously.

Rees-Mogg is too boring, too white.

Gove looks like a cartoon character.

Javid or some newcomer (Mordaunt, etc.) would be good.

Johnny Mercer would be good.

Wait, you do a list of these people, describe one of them as looking like a cartoon character, and that one is not Rees-Mogg?

[Antonio the Sixth]

#No'sWinningMarginUnder150
#Maymentum
#Maycanstillwin