UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[Silent Hunter]

There is only really one more chance after next week though.

[AndyHogan14]

My question is, what happens if you get 9+ more Tory defections? Could they force some sort of national unity government? Obviously, former Tory MPs would refuse to back a no confidence motion to trigger a general election (out of fear of a possible Corbyn government), but putting together some sort of unity government until this parliamentary term ends would have to be one of their goals, right?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

My question is, what happens if you get 9+ more Tory defections? Could they force some sort of national unity government? Obviously, former Tory MPs would refuse to back a no confidence motion to trigger a general election (out of fear of a possible Corbyn government), but putting together some sort of unity government until this parliamentary term ends would have to be one of their goals, right?

Or they could just use the threat of doing that to blackmail May into following their demands.

[YL]

Ian Austin, MP for Dudley North, has left Labour (no great surprise, as he hates Corbyn) but is not joining TIG (also no great surprise, as he has been fairly pro-Brexit).

So there are now 20 Independent MPs, 11 of them TIG.

[Middle-aged Europe]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-news-independent-group-mps-resign-corbyn-may-final-say-second-referendum-labour-a8791351.html

[thumb21]

I don't think the polling numbers of TIG are really as impressive as they may seem at first sight when you consider how unpopular both parties are among the general public, how much publicity the defections have received and the fact that they are very new and so haven't received much scrutiny yet.

A few things to consider:

Firstly, what suggests that they may be able to exceed the Lib Dems in the long term? Both are centrist and staunchly anti-Brexit. The Lib Dems' main problems can easily hurt TIG too, such as the fact that the Lib Dems have become seen as toxic on the due to their coalition with the Conservatives, particularly among left-wing voters who may normally find an anti-Brexit message appealing. Its worth noting that all 3 of the polls on TIG so far have been taken before the defection of the 3 Conservatives. This could hurt TIG's chances among left-wing voters in the same way that working with the Conservatives hurt the Lib Dems' chances. Not to mention the fact that TIG is likely to end up in some sort of alliance with the Lib Dems anyway. For these reasons, I don't see TIG being much more formidable than the Lib Dems have been so far.

Secondly, I can't stress enough that you shouldn't underestimate Corbyn. It has long been acknowledged that his main weakness is Brexit. It makes sense that so long as Brexit is the issue getting headlines, Corbyn will struggle. However, last election, Corbyn was able to shift the conversation away from Brexit to domestic policy, where he is much more passionate and his ideas are much more popular among the electorate. Next election, Corbyn will likely do the same and Labour will surge again.

Thirdly, although TIG presents itself as the middle ground of British politics, I doubt it'd be perceived that way. They are decidedly on one side of the biggest issue in Britain at the moment. The pool of voters they can appeal to is limited. Conservative voters, the vast majority of whom are pro-Brexit won't be moving to TIG in large numbers, and most Labour voters will be reluctant to move over. Many staunchly anti-Brexit Labour voters will view TIG as too moderate on other issues.

[DavidB.]

https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1098876982677434369

[Hnv1]

Meh. I wish the crown would suspend parliament and pick a competent PM to drive through this mess

[Intell]

Just get McDonnell to be leader of the labour party. Corbyn should if possible be replaced by some-one on the left of the party.

[Silent Hunter]

McDonnell has similar baggage to Corbyn, although more re the IRA.

[Intell]

McDonnell has similar baggage to Corbyn, although more re the IRA.

Seems more competent.

[Blair]

Fwiw the instenity of feeling around Brexit has got a lot worse since 2017; back then it was an abstract idea, now it’s much of a practical reality.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Meh. I wish the crown would suspend parliament and pick a competent PM to drive through this mess

I'm pretty sure Queen Elizabeth doesn't want to spend the last years of her reign embroiled in a constitutional crisis that puts her dynasty's survival at stake.

[Silent Hunter]

No "meaningful vote" next week, but there will be an update to the Commons and an amendable motion like 14 February.

[Angel of Death]

I have this theory that Theresa May thinks that Brexit is some kind of singularity and that time will slow down asymptotically as it approaches it (doesn't it actually feel a bit that way?).

Or maybe she just secretly knows she's dying and only cares about maximizing her score. Après moi le déluge.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The EU is considering an offer to delay the Brexit till 2021, in order to avoid having to extent the deadline every three months or so.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/24/brexit-could-be-delayed-until-2021-eu-sources-reveal

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The EU is considering an offer to delay the Brexit till 2021, in order to avoid having to extent the deadline every three months or so.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/24/brexit-could-be-delayed-until-2021-eu-sources-reveal

May cannot take that offer: she will tear her party in two and lose her job.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The EU is considering an offer to delay the Brexit till 2021, in order to avoid having to extent the deadline every three months or so.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/24/brexit-could-be-delayed-until-2021-eu-sources-reveal

May cannot take that offer: she will tear her party in two and lose her job.

The viability of the Conservative Party's continued existence (in its current form) with its hard Brexiteers and its People's Vote supporters is something I wondered about myself these past weeks. The Tories don't quite seem like a set-up fit for our times anymore.

But you're right of course... while May does seem to inch closer to some form of extension now, it's likely that she'll try to keep the time frame short. For now. I suppose we could very well see her haggle with the EU about the precise length of an extension in three week or so.

[parochial boy]

What would be the point in a short extension, or a long extension or anything? It'll just mean being in exactly the same place X months down the line.

What is truly shocking though, is the way that May is behaving like this is purely an internal debate within the Conservative party, and that everyone else is entirely incidental to the process.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What would be the point in a short extension, or a long extension or anything? It'll just mean being in exactly the same place X months down the line.

Continue to buy more time until either May's original EU deal (or a people's vote) is accepted by a majority of parliament? Most of them obviously don't want a hard Brexit, they just can't agree on what they want instead among the realistic options at hand. I mean if they continue to extent the deadline for the next six years one after another the MPs will eventually be willing to vote in favour of some form of solution they oppose right now.

[DavidB.]

What is truly shocking though, is the way that May is behaving like this is purely an internal debate within the Conservative party, and that everyone else is entirely incidental to the process.

Isn't it Jeremy Corbyn who refuses to meet May on Brexit and not the other way around?

[afleitch]

What is truly shocking though, is the way that May is behaving like this is purely an internal debate within the Conservative party, and that everyone else is entirely incidental to the process.

Isn't it Jeremy Corbyn who refuses to meet May on Brexit and not the other way around?

May refused to make it a parliamentary matter until she was forced to.

She refused to make it cross party until she was forced to.

She's still refused to consult the devolved governments.

I hate Corbyn with the fire of a thousand suns but Brexit is her mess. The OP is correct.

[DavidB.]

Ftr it was an honest question - I'm certainly not endorsing May's handling of Brexit...

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/nbcnews/status/1100091531250135040?s=21

[Beet]

https://twitter.com/nbcnews/status/1100091531250135040?s=21

Good god no. Just get it done.