UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[PSOL]

Interview with Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn 'We Can't Stop Brexit'
If you could stop Brexit, would you?
JEREMY CORBYN: We can't stop it. The referendum took place. Article 50 has been triggered. What we can do is recognize the reasons why people voted Leave.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/interview-with-labour-leader-corbyn-we-can-t-stop-brexit-a-1237594.html#ref=rss

He's so utterly pathetic.

I mean what can you do if you believe that Brexit was the right choice, but opposition mainly comes from your own party. Corbyn is walking a tightrope to balance popularity and do what he believes is the right choice, even if many see it as wrong.

[Silent Hunter]

I think Labour needs to swallow its pride and work with May to get a workable deal created. And apply for an A50 extension as well.

[Silent Hunter]

Why did you vote Leave in 2016? Genuinely curious.

[Blair]

The argument about an EU army is stupid when you remember that NATO's command structure means that we'll always be ruled by an American General regardless of what happens. It's such a juvenile obsession from people who are stuck in a pre-WW1 view of how military command works

[Silent Hunter]

Yep, the whole Windrush thing is a scandal. These people should have been given permanent paperwork back in the 1970s.

[Kingpoleon]

So May claims:
- She’s “absolutely committed to ensuring that we deliver no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland”
- She “would never agree to a deal which would trap the UK in a backstop permanently.”
- North Ireland’s “permanently separated economically from the rest of the UK by a border down the Irish Sea... is something [May] will never agree to – indeed, in [her] judgement it is something no British Prime Minister would ever agree to.“

So, no hard border in Ireland, no ocean border in the Irish Sea, and the United Kingdom will not remain in the customs union. Am I missing something?

[Silent Hunter]

The future of Northern ireland is as six countries of a United Ireland. It is just a matter of when.

[afleitch]

Still not clear what position Labstain will take.

[swl]

In my opinion the cabinet should not block the deal. MPs with their different factions made it very difficult to May. It's time for the cabinet to let them face their responsibilities and chose one by one if they prefer this deal, or no-deal at all.

[mileslunn]

I think the big problem with Brexit is of the 52% who voted leave there is great variance on what they wanted.  Anything from staying in the single market (Norway like deal), Customs Union (Turkey like deal), Free trade deal (Canada like deal), to returning to WTO rules were all possibilities.  I doubt many who voted leave wanted the first and only the most ardent brexiters favoured the last, but between the two middle you would probably get a split between hard and soft brexiters.  Essentially the deal is a compromise which seems like the best way forward to deal with a divided nation, but it seems neither side wants a compromise, it is for most their way or the highway meaning support one side and anger half the country or find a compromise like they did and leave both sides upset, even if less so than choosing one side.

That being said with the clock ticking, I cannot see how turning this down would help UK.  There doesn't seem to be enough time to make another deal and whatever the EU offers would probably be worse anyways.  Even if the Tories get the DUP on side, the only way I can see it passing the commons is if they can get all the Labour leave and a few Eurosceptics who reluctantly voted remain on side and since Labour feels they have a decent chance at winning an election (polls suggest they would fall short, but different story), I suspect most if not all would vote against in the hopes of triggering one.  Perhaps Labour MPs who barely won their seats might want to avoid this as just as Labour could win, they also could lose many of their marginal seats too, especially if turnout amongst younger voters falls back to normal levels.

[Silent Hunter]

Looks like we'll be getting a vote on May's future, then. If she wins it, no challenge for a further 12 months.

[ag]

I mean, it was always obvious that, conditional on Brexit, the choice has always been no deal or this sort of a deal. If anything, Europeans were generous in providing some fig leafs - they, really, did not have to.

[Lumine]

I want to say "she's finished at last", but May has made such a habit of barely surviving that I keep expecting her not to fall somehow.

[Silent Hunter]

I want to say "she's finished at last", but May has made such a habit of barely surviving that I keep expecting her not to fall somehow.

Corbyn faced a no confidence vote from his MPs. He's still there.

[DaWN]

I want to say "she's finished at last", but May has made such a habit of barely surviving that I keep expecting her not to fall somehow.

Corbyn faced a no confidence vote from his MPs. He's still there.

Because the MPs are spineless and the Labour membership is full of TUSC/SWP castoffs. May has neither of those advantages - in fact the only one she does have is that there is nobody obvious who could replace her without pissing off most of the party, which is what has kept her in so far and what I suspect will keep her in this time as well.

[Lumine]

I want to say "she's finished at last", but May has made such a habit of barely surviving that I keep expecting her not to fall somehow.

Corbyn faced a no confidence vote from his MPs. He's still there.

Eh, I don't place that much importance in the no confidence vote either (because strictly speaking she should have the numbers to win one outright), it's the whole situation with the resignations (particularly Raab), the lack of cabinet support and the lack of support for the deal from a vast majority within Parliament which I think are decisive enough. Where can she go on from there?

[Sestak]

This deal's dead, right?

>Labor opposes
>DUP opposes
>All the other opposition parties oppose
>Right wing of Tories oppose

How does this have a path? Are we looking at a no deal Brexit?

[Silent Hunter]

I don't think so; there is no majority for that either. I think we're either looking at a 2nd referendum or a new General Election. At any rate, the confidence and supply arrangement from the DUP is looking very much like a Norwegian Blue.

New GE needs a 2/3 majority or a successful specific no-confidence vote in government with no new government commanding a majority formed within 14 days.

[mileslunn]

I think those opposing the deal are shooting themselves in the foot.  I would have thought hard brexiters would be more scared of Jeremy Corbyn becoming PM thus that threat would make them want to avoid this.  Also if any Brexiters think the EU will offer a better deal, they are dreaming technicolour.  The EU doesn't want to make it too generous lest other countries may decide to leave and the EU wants to ensure that doesn't happen.

[Sestak]

If Gove resigns, are we headed to a snap?

[Lumine]

If Gove resigns, are we headed to a snap?

Two thirds of Parliament would have to approve an election, and I strongly doubt enough Conservative MPs would vote for one.

[DaWN]

Yeah There won't be an election. There aren't the numbers for it and I would really question the wisdom of the decision for either main party if there were.

Of course, that doesn't stop many in media going on about it, and our enlightened Comrade Leader of the Opposition seems to think it'll be a brilliant masterstroke that'll sweep him into power. If you say so mate.

I'd say the status quo continuing to wither along until the whole thing just breaks down remains the most likely option at this point. Too many people have too much to lose from any other outcome.

[mileslunn]

I doubt an election, too risky.  Corbyn only came as close as he did due to youthquake and no guarantee it happens again.  If younger voters don't turnout or Greens or Liberal Democrats pick up some they could easily lose 30 seats.  By the same token lots of supposed safe Tory seats, especially in London almost went Labour so I suspect those MPs aren't keen on going again while for SNP their support is quite volatile so anybody's guess how they will do.  Also Scottish Tory support is much softer than English Tory support so doubt many of the 13 Conservative MPs in Scotland will want an election.

[Silent Hunter]

No guarantee that an election would not produce the same result in some form.

[Omega21]

I feel like having a 2nd referendum would be a case of "Referendums are good if they turn out how we want them to, if not, we just repeat until we get what we want", even though I would probably be against leaving.

Sad to see a great nation in political and social turmoil, and even though I am right wing, I don't see how leaving the EU is going to stop any of the issues that were imported into your country (such as rising knife crime, acid attacks, FGM, polygamy, disabled children due to incest etc.).

Hope you guys get your sh**t together soon.