UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I still think Corbyn is a poor leader, but what is true then (and now) is that his opponents would probably be even more inept. I don't mind Owen Smith, but his instincts (including the infamous attempt to out peacenik Corbyn by talking about dialogue with ISIS, which actually caused him to lose support with no real gain) are fairly bad. That includes Brexit: like him or not, Jezza understands that most Brits, whatever they voted in the referendum, are not wholly obsessed with the EU, which is why he took the seemingly cowardly route in the election of ignoring it in favour of kitchen sink issues. Basically Corbyn wins when he (and his team) talk about hard stuff that actually matters (like education and healthcare) rather than angsting about irrelevant stuff like Israel or Trident or the EU. (Same with the Tories: they polled well when May pretended she knew anything about economic issues, and collapsed when she campaigned on frivolous hot-button stuff like grammar schools and foxhunting.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I still think Corbyn is a poor leader, but what is true then (and now) is that his opponents would probably be even more inept. I don't mind Owen Smith, but his instincts (including the infamous attempt to out peacenik Corbyn by talking about dialogue with ISIS, which actually caused him to lose support with no real gain) are fairly bad. That includes Brexit: like him or not, Jezza understands that most Brits, whatever they voted in the referendum, are not wholly obsessed with the EU, which is why he took the seemingly cowardly route in the election of ignoring it in favour of kitchen sink issues. Basically Corbyn wins when he (and his team) talk about hard stuff that actually matters (like education and healthcare) rather than angsting about irrelevant stuff like Israel or Trident or the EU. (Same with the Tories: they polled well when May pretended she knew anything about economic issues, and collapsed when she campaigned on frivolous hot-button stuff like grammar schools and foxhunting.

Exactly. This is why I'm actually rooting for this government to bring the country to some kind of Brexit that everyone, whether they like it or not, can treat as a settled issue. Corbyn will be in a much better position when political debate shifts back to the economy and away from identity politics.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Most British people don't care that much about Brexit, especially remainers, and there is no market for any kind of remain-focused party. If there were, er, Vauxhall wouldn't have re-elected Kate Hoey?

LibDems need to die. Britain deserves a real choice between left and right, not a bunch of Nice Woke Moderates who happily help the Tories gut the welfare state.

That's fine, and like I keep saying to people for what four years now, if left-meme kiddies are happy with being a 250-seat opposition, this kind of arrogance is exactly what they should be espousing. Normal people who live in Nuneaton and drive cars will keep voting Tory. But one kind of lefty will get to beat another kind of lefty in the political equivalent of England v Belgium.

lol, I thought last year's election had dispelled the "muh Corbyn is unelectable" nonsense once and for all, but I guess some people are too Reasonable and Pragmatic to let the facts get in the way of their narratives.

He went up against the most disastrous campaign in decades with a lot of voter enthusiasm at his back, and still came up significantly short.

Also, you're backing an unapologetic anti-semite.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The initial concern when Corbyn was elected Leader was not that he would lead Labour to disaster or worse, but that his leadership might make it harder to regain power. The later idea that his leadership would result in 1931 all over again has been proven false, but that earlier concern remains perfectly valid.

Of course it would be an error to assume that any alternative would automatically be in a stronger position: that, too, is fantasy politics.

[windjammer]

May absolutely needs to survive.


If she falls, the anti Brexiter will find a way to cancel the will of the british to leave the EU.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The initial concern when Corbyn was elected Leader was not that he would lead Labour to disaster or worse, but that his leadership might make it harder to regain power. The later idea that his leadership would result in 1931 all over again has been proven false, but that earlier concern remains perfectly valid.

Concern is always valid. God knows I get concerned every time an election draws near, no matter what the polls say. Asserting as a fact that Corbyn can't win, however, is nothing but blind hackery.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

May absolutely needs to survive.


If she falls, the anti Brexiter will find a way to cancel the will of the british to leave the EU.

That is what the British voted to do.

[TheSaint250]

New Opinium poll has UKIP up to 8%.

Labour: 40%
Conservative: 36% (-6)
Liberal Democrats: 8% (+1)
UKIP: 8% (+5)

[Blair]

Most British people don't care that much about Brexit, especially remainers, and there is no market for any kind of remain-focused party. If there were, er, Vauxhall wouldn't have re-elected Kate Hoey?

LibDems need to die. Britain deserves a real choice between left and right, not a bunch of Nice Woke Moderates who happily help the Tories gut the welfare state.

That's fine, and like I keep saying to people for what four years now, if left-meme kiddies are happy with being a 250-seat opposition, this kind of arrogance is exactly what they should be espousing. Normal people who live in Nuneaton and drive cars will keep voting Tory. But one kind of lefty will get to beat another kind of lefty in the political equivalent of England v Belgium.

lol, I thought last year's election had dispelled the "muh Corbyn is unelectable" nonsense once and for all, but I guess some people are too Reasonable and Pragmatic to let the facts get in the way of their narratives.

He went up against the most disastrous campaign in decades with a lot of voter enthusiasm at his back, and still came up significantly short.

Also, you're backing an unapologetic anti-semite.

I mean he started the campaign on 27%, and got Labour's final result to 40%. He was clearly doing something right.

[cp]

Is there any line of argument more tedious than the one that disingenuously chooses to aver that the Tories' performance in the 2017 campaign is going to be their LEARNING EXPERIENCE that will magically allow them to run flawless campaigns in future elections? The Conservatives could obviously win a majority in the next election - Likewise, we could see a CUP with Jeremy Hunt at the helm in the months following the hubris from the Brexit imbroglio face to a 1997-esque defeat to Corbyn's Labour in 2019.

Yes: the argument that voicing mainstream postcolonial criticism of Israeli settlement policies while enhancing procedures for dealing with obnoxious bigotry within a political party constitutes being an unapologetic anti-semite.

[EPG]

Most British people don't care that much about Brexit, especially remainers, and there is no market for any kind of remain-focused party. If there were, er, Vauxhall wouldn't have re-elected Kate Hoey?

LibDems need to die. Britain deserves a real choice between left and right, not a bunch of Nice Woke Moderates who happily help the Tories gut the welfare state.

That's fine, and like I keep saying to people for what four years now, if left-meme kiddies are happy with being a 250-seat opposition, this kind of arrogance is exactly what they should be espousing. Normal people who live in Nuneaton and drive cars will keep voting Tory. But one kind of lefty will get to beat another kind of lefty in the political equivalent of England v Belgium.

lol, I thought last year's election had dispelled the "muh Corbyn is unelectable" nonsense once and for all, but I guess some people are too Reasonable and Pragmatic to let the facts get in the way of their narratives.

You hope Labour wins every election as much as Corbyn won in 2017: winning nothing.

Corbyn shouldn't have re-published that picture of big-nosed men conspiring to run the world on the backs of humanity. Correct?

[cp]

Most British people don't care that much about Brexit, especially remainers, and there is no market for any kind of remain-focused party. If there were, er, Vauxhall wouldn't have re-elected Kate Hoey?

LibDems need to die. Britain deserves a real choice between left and right, not a bunch of Nice Woke Moderates who happily help the Tories gut the welfare state.

That's fine, and like I keep saying to people for what four years now, if left-meme kiddies are happy with being a 250-seat opposition, this kind of arrogance is exactly what they should be espousing. Normal people who live in Nuneaton and drive cars will keep voting Tory. But one kind of lefty will get to beat another kind of lefty in the political equivalent of England v Belgium.

lol, I thought last year's election had dispelled the "muh Corbyn is unelectable" nonsense once and for all, but I guess some people are too Reasonable and Pragmatic to let the facts get in the way of their narratives.

You hope Labour wins every election as much as Corbyn won in 2017: winning nothing.

Corbyn shouldn't have re-published that picture of big-nosed men conspiring to run the world on the backs of humanity. Correct?

No more than Michael Fabricant should have published photos of Sadiq Khan's head superimposed on a pig's body.

[parochial boy]

I know I'm one to talk, but it appears that this board must follow the moon or something, because you can guarantee that over the course of a month we will argue first about "are refugees all rapists?", followed by "Is Corbyn an anti-semite?" and finishing of with "but yeah, Corbyn will never win an election" before starting all over again.

So I'm personally very much looking forward to this time next week when tender posts a thread about something some refugee did in Cologne which gets a 100 replies all making exactly the same posts they did in the last argument.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Most British people don't care that much about Brexit, especially remainers, and there is no market for any kind of remain-focused party. If there were, er, Vauxhall wouldn't have re-elected Kate Hoey?

LibDems need to die. Britain deserves a real choice between left and right, not a bunch of Nice Woke Moderates who happily help the Tories gut the welfare state.

That's fine, and like I keep saying to people for what four years now, if left-meme kiddies are happy with being a 250-seat opposition, this kind of arrogance is exactly what they should be espousing. Normal people who live in Nuneaton and drive cars will keep voting Tory. But one kind of lefty will get to beat another kind of lefty in the political equivalent of England v Belgium.

lol, I thought last year's election had dispelled the "muh Corbyn is unelectable" nonsense once and for all, but I guess some people are too Reasonable and Pragmatic to let the facts get in the way of their narratives.

You hope Labour wins every election as much as Corbyn won in 2017: winning nothing.

Corbyn shouldn't have re-published that picture of big-nosed men conspiring to run the world on the backs of humanity. Correct?

I'm on record saying Corbyn should have stepped down during the whole Labour antisemitism debacle (not because he's an antisemite himself, that's a ridiculous caricature, but because he's clearly turned a blind eye to people who were). Now, he hasn't, and given that the alternative are one of the vilest and most viciously right-wing parties in Western Europe, and that Labour is great on all the bread-and-butter issues, that won't change the fact that I want Labour to win and govern for as long as possible.

[Blair]

I guess his circle made a calculation, jewish votes are irrelevant and they will always vote tory,
if labour had another leader in last election, Labour would've gained Finchley and Hendon,

I mean, I'm not sure of the Jewish vote nationally, but there are areas with a high number of Jews, which have virtually always voted Labour, both at national and local level.

[Helsinkian]

The free speech activist and citizen journalist Tommy Robinson has been sentenced to a 13 month prison term in the UK. His crime? Providing coverage of a grooming gang trial. He was filming a live video outside the court house when he was arrested. Robinson's trial and sentencing took place on the same day and took about 30 minutes.

Trump's ambassador for international religious freedom has interceded on Robinson's behalf:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jul/14/us-raises-concerns-with-uk-about-safety-of-tommy-robinson-jailed-edl-founder

[LabourJersey]

They don't seem to include the Tory voter breakdowns in leadership preferences.

Anyway if there's one thing I learned from meeting and engaging with British voters of most political stripes is that literally no one respects Boris Johnson or thinks he is anything but a joke and an idiot.

But then again Rees-Mogg is from 1885 and Ruth Davidson isn't in parliament, so there's really no else who can fill the vacuum that I'm aware of

[cp]

They don't seem to include the Tory voter breakdowns in leadership preferences.

Anyway if there's one thing I learned from meeting and engaging with British voters of most political stripes is that literally no one respects Boris Johnson or thinks he is anything but a joke and an idiot.

But then again Rees-Mogg is from 1885 and Ruth Davidson isn't in parliament, so there's really no else who can fill the vacuum that I'm aware of

You're completely right about Boris. His descent from would-be PM to virtual pariah has been nothing short of remarkable.

If it came to it (and it just might this week) it would be a free for all at first. Over time, however, the choices would be narrowed to a 'remainer' and 'leaver' option. Who ends up being the standard bearer for each is a genuine open question, but my money would be on Justine Greening or Amber Rudd in the former category, and Michael Gove or Rees-Mogg in the latter.

All of them, it should be noted, would enter office facing a parliamentary deadlock and virtually guaranteed to call a new election, which the Tories would very likely lose.

[mvd10]

They don't seem to include the Tory voter breakdowns in leadership preferences.

Anyway if there's one thing I learned from meeting and engaging with British voters of most political stripes is that literally no one respects Boris Johnson or thinks he is anything but a joke and an idiot.

But then again Rees-Mogg is from 1885 and Ruth Davidson isn't in parliament, so there's really no else who can fill the vacuum that I'm aware of

You're completely right about Boris. His decent from would-be PM to virtual pariah has been nothing short of remarkable.

If it came to it (and it just might this week) it would be a free for all at first. Over time, however, the choices would be narrowed to a 'remainer' and 'leaver' option. Who ends up being the standard bearer for each is a genuine open question, but my money would be on Justine Greening or Amber Rudd in the former category, and Michael Gove or Rees-Mogg in the latter.

All of them, it should be noted, would enter office facing a parliamentary deadlock and virtually guaranteed to call a new election, which the Tories would very likely lose.

Can they try Javid? I guess there are a lot of drawbacks but it looks like the Tories options are all very bleh. But I guess he will be toast soon as the new Home Secretary.

[Blair]

Yeah those surveys asking voters who they want as the next Tory Leader are largely irrelevant when Johnson and Gove are the only ones people have actually heard of (although Rees-Mogg is becoming more known) Besides, when the numbers are below 20%, it's rather pointless.

Also, because as UK (and some International posters) will know, Tory MPs vote for the final two who then get put to the membership- this means that people like Rees-Mogg and Johnson could get blocked off.

I can't see Rudd running so soon after quitting over Windrush; she'd need to come back to Cabinet (most likely as a mid level minister). Greening has called for a second referendum, and is probably one of the most left leaning MPs in the Party.

Of course these things are impossible to predict 

[Antonio the Sixth]

Really, when you think about it, choosing a Remainer as their leader post-Brexit was always going to blow up in the Tories' faces. It has always been easy to question the sincerity of May's commitment to Brexit, even when she seemed to go all-in, and as soon as she conceded anything (and concessions are an inevitability in any negotiation) it was even easier to spin it into a massive betrayal. Had the Tories gone with Gove or Leadsom, they would probably have been far more able to make the hardliners swallow it. But no, instead they thought they could keep the hardliners out and appease them through rhetoric alone. As always with the Tories, their own arrogance doomed them.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Tbf there are very egregious flaws in all the main brexiters that weren't immediately apparent in May. Leadsom, for example, is very stupid; Fox is corrupt and Gove is a snake.

[Blair]

Really, when you think about it, choosing a Remainer as their leader post-Brexit was always going to blow up in the Tories' faces. It has always been easy to question the sincerity of May's commitment to Brexit, even when she seemed to go all-in, and as soon as she conceded anything (and concessions are an inevitability in any negotiation) it was even easier to spin it into a massive betrayal. Had the Tories gone with Gove or Leadsom, they would probably have been far more able to make the hardliners swallow it. But no, instead they thought they could keep the hardliners out and appease them through rhetoric alone. As always with the Tories, their own arrogance doomed them.

Am going to disagree here; it wasn't until after the 2017 General Election that people begun to say that May wasn't committed to Brexit. (Although that could be partly be because before that May was seen as the saviour of the Conservative Party)

It's much better to see support for Brexit as a scale; on one end you have Bill Cash, Owen Patterson, and on the other you have Ken Clarke. There's a big mass of MPs in the middle, who remain supportive of May (even out of Ambition, cowardice, fear of Corbyn etc)

Even if the Tories had gone with Gove, or Leadsom, you'd still have the same eventual outcome, and deal (albeit in slightly less friendly language to Brussels) and then the right would just blame the Cabinet members who were Remainers, or the civil service.

[cp]

Even though it was only two years ago, counterfactuals about the last Tory leadership contest are too far in the past to make meaningful extrapolations to today. Would Gove/Leadsom/anyone else have triggered Article 50 when they did? Or at all? Would they have called a snap election? Would they have done as badly or worse? Would they have agreed to the NI backstop last December? All of these might have gone a different way without May in charge, thus changing the current dilemma May faces.

In other words, only Theresa May could have screwed over the Tories this badly.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Tbf there are very egregious flaws in all the main brexiters that weren't immediately apparent in May. Leadsom, for example, is very stupid; Fox is corrupt and Gove is a snake.

I mean yeah, I never said any of these people would be good as PM. I'm not convinced there is such thing as a good Tory to begin with.

Even if the Tories had gone with Gove, or Leadsom, you'd still have the same eventual outcome, and deal (albeit in slightly less friendly language to Brussels) and then the right would just blame the Cabinet members who were Remainers, or the civil service.

That you'd had a similar eventual deal was part of my point. That it would still be criticized, I mean maybe to some extent, but you have to agree that those criticisms would pack far less punch if you had a true-blue Brexiter at the helm endorsing and taking responsibility for the plan instead of someone like May, who's all too easy to paint as a crypto-Remainer who betrayed the British people.