UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[JerryArkansas]

Post it on the local elections thread on IE - I  thought it was a general thread and was wondering why the professor had the Lib Dems losing 83 when they only have like a dozen MP's to begin with.

And weren't the Lib Dems at one of there really low points when these seats were last up?  Losing even more ground doesn't really make sense.

[vileplume]

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And weren't the Lib Dems at one of there really low points when these seats were last up?  Losing even more ground doesn't really make sense.

They were polling roughly 9% which is slightly better than they're doing now but their support is probably more concentrated now than it was then which helps in first past the post elections. As it happens I don't think they will net lose seats, I think they'll make very modest net gains. Whilst this is obviously better than a net loss it won't really justify #LibDemfightback that you'll probably hear when they do significantly less badly than this forecast is suggesting they will.

As for councils I think it's a near certainty they'll gain Kingston, Richmond will be much more interesting though. If they do have as bad a night as this forecast is suggesting Sutton could be in serious danger to the Tories but they should probably hold it albeit with a much decreased majority.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Pornography soon to be removed by UK internet providers.

http://www.news.com.au/technology/online/brits-faced-with-prospect-of-buying-porn-pass-at-corner-store/news-story/2cda959cb0980c6f73afba401fa30e59

Soon, you will need to visit your local corner deli or service station to get a 'porn pass' before you can go online to www dot pussy cats in plastic dot com.

[Silent Hunter]

Also, former cabinet minister Tessa Jowell died of cancer on Saturday aged 70.

[NewYorkExpress]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-44113864

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Ominous news for Brexit?

[cp]

Nope. Westminster can effectively overrule Scotland in this case.

That said, there *is* plenty of ominous news for Brexit, but it's hardly reported on in the press because it's too technical and still, for the moment, hypothetical. The Tories' proposals for reconciling guarantees of an open border in Ireland with their demands on regulatory and trade divergence with the EU are dead in the water. The parliamentary math is such that there is no majority for leaving the customs union, which is supposedly an inviolable demand of the hardline Brexiteers in the government and on the backbenches. Most importantly, no one has a plan that avoids a complete collapse of negotiations, either in June or in October, or a political crisis in the Tory party.

[Clyde1998]

Panelbase poll of English-born English-based voters:

Scotland voted 62% to remain in the EU. If part of the price of Brexit was Scotland leaving the UK, do you think that would be a price worth paying?
Yes - 43%
No - 35%
DK - 22%

Northern Ireland voted 56% to remain in the EU. If part of the price of Brexit was Northern Ireland leaving the UK and reunited with the rest of Ireland, do you think that would be a price worth paying?
Yes - 45%
No - 31%
DK - 24%

Gibraltar voted overwhelmingly 99% to remain in the EU. If part of the price of Brexit was returning Gibraltar to Spain, do you think that would be a price worth paying?
Yes - 38%
No - 37%
DK - 24%

[NewYorkExpress]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5750301/John-McDonnell-says-wants-overthrow-capitalism-create-socialist-society.html

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This doesn't hurt Labor's chances of taking back Parliament down the road, does it?

[Silent Hunter]

This is basically what the far left did with the USSR... once it failed, it was clearly never Marxist.

[Former President tack50]

Panelbase poll of English-born English-based voters:

Scotland voted 62% to remain in the EU. If part of the price of Brexit was Scotland leaving the UK, do you think that would be a price worth paying?
Yes - 43%
No - 35%
DK - 22%

Northern Ireland voted 56% to remain in the EU. If part of the price of Brexit was Northern Ireland leaving the UK and reunited with the rest of Ireland, do you think that would be a price worth paying?
Yes - 45%
No - 31%
DK - 24%

Gibraltar voted overwhelmingly 99% to remain in the EU. If part of the price of Brexit was returning Gibraltar to Spain, do you think that would be a price worth paying?
Yes - 38%
No - 37%
DK - 24%

Honestly surprised about Gibraltar. Then again Gibraltar isn't becoming Spanish any time soon even with Brexit so it's a non issue.

The last referendum was apparently 99-1 for staying with the UK while Brexit was 96-4 apparently. Which means that leaving the EU is more popular in Gibraltar than becoming Spanish.

[Silent Hunter]

Considering that there is already a 'hard border' between Gibraltar and Spain....

[TheSaint250]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5750301/John-McDonnell-says-wants-overthrow-capitalism-create-socialist-society.html

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This doesn't hurt Labor's chances of taking back Parliament down the road, does it?

Oh my...

[Frodo]

How does Jeremy Corbyn compare to Neil Kinnock? 

[NewYorkExpress]

How does Jeremy Corbyn compare to Neil Kinnock? 

Factionally unaligned, personally dissimilar, etc.

No correlation other than the probable outcome of Corbyn leading Labour into a second general election, though hopefully Our Timeline writer throws us a bone and actually lets him achieve government!

Honestly, after this, if you include May's unpopularity, I think if there was another Parliamentary Election in the next four months, there would be another hung Parliament, only this time Corbyn would have the task of trying to form a coalition first because Labor would have the most seats.

[Silent Hunter]

Corbyn is even more unpopular than May.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6364486/whistleblower-marine-scotland-taped-chair-gagged-deeann-fitzpatrick-reid-anderson/

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[Helsinkian]

The free speech activist and citizen journalist Tommy Robinson has been sentenced to a 13 month prison term in the UK. His crime? Providing coverage of a grooming gang trial. He was filming a live video outside the court house when he was arrested. Robinson's trial and sentencing took place on the same day and took about 30 minutes.

And in an Orwellian twist the judge has prohibited all media organisations from reporting on his sentence. They've managed to take down the reporting of some non-UK websites as well but this article is still up and they can't silence Twitter.

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/05/orwells-nightmare-articles-about-tommy-robinsons-arrest-rapidly-scrubbed-from-the-internet/

UK (and the rest of Europe) is truly in need of a 1st Amendment.

[Silent Hunter]

Still on a number of UK websites; his arrest is at any rate. Robinson is a bigot who wants freedom to spread hate. His live video was almost certainly about inciting racial hatred and he's on a suspended sentence for contempt of court, basically for doing the same thing.

You commit another offence during a suspended sentence, the original jail sentence is activated.

[Helsinkian]

Even if he were a bigot who's "spreading his hate" why should that be illegal? Hate is an emotion. You can't criminalize emotions.

[Silent Hunter]

Because riling people up against a so called threat tends to get innocent people killed.

[Blair]

It's so plainly obvious that Stephen Yaxley (his actual name, rather than his EDL hooligan name) doesn't give a sh**t about grooming, or sexual violence against women- he's just a thug who's convictions include entering the US illegally, using a fake passport, assaulting an off-duty police officer and so on.

He's not a free speech activist, and he hasn't been imprisoned for reporting about a grooming trial, but rather for breach of the peace

[MaxQue]

Even if he were a bigot who's "spreading his hate" why should that be illegal? Hate is an emotion. You can't criminalize emotions.

So, calling to kill all Muslisms should be legal?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

British legislation on this sort of issue is quite specific. Effectively these are - as Blair says - public order offences.

[Lord Halifax]

British legislation on this sort of issue is quite specific. Effectively these are - as Blair says - public order offences.

The British concept of "public order" seems rather authoritarian, it can seemingly be abused to target anyone the authorities don't like. There should be a certain right to "public disorder".

[Helsinkian]

Even if he were a bigot who's "spreading his hate" why should that be illegal? Hate is an emotion. You can't criminalize emotions.

So, calling to kill all Muslisms should be legal?

You really don't see a difference between these statements?

1. "We all need to hate group X."
2. "We should kill group X."

The second sentence is incitement to violence. It needs to be illegal.

The first sentence may be morally repugnant but it is nevertheless merely an opinion that contains no incitement to violence. Thus the first sentence should not be illegal, and in America it is not illegal (indeed, the US Supreme Court has even defended abstract references to violence as free speech, prohibiting only such speech that incites imminent lawless action).