UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[ViaActiva]

Which puts you safely out of the country a lot of the time.

True - certainly helped for Brown re: David Miliband.

[cp]

Which puts you safely out of the country a lot of the time.

True - certainly helped for Brown re: David Miliband.

Oooh! Does this mean we get to watch them go up for the leadership and Jo win by a nose and then lose the next election?

[mileslunn]

Which puts you safely out of the country a lot of the time.

True - certainly helped for Brown re: David Miliband.

Oooh! Does this mean we get to watch them go up for the leadership and Jo win by a nose and then lose the next election?

What makes you think Boris Johnson would lose the next election.  With how polarizing Corbyn is, the next election is likely to be a dog fight no matter who the Tories choose and it will be a challenge for either party to win a majority especially a landslide.

[Leftbehind]

Which puts you safely out of the country a lot of the time.

True - certainly helped for Brown re: David Miliband.

Oooh! Does this mean we get to watch them go up for the leadership and Jo win by a nose and then lose the next election?

What makes you think Boris Johnson would lose the next election.  With how polarizing Corbyn is, the next election is likely to be a dog fight no matter who the Tories choose and it will be a challenge for either party to win a majority especially a landslide.

Exhibit A:

[ViaActiva]

Eh not a fan of Johnson but not sure that evidence is that damning. He only needs the Tory members (which is not unlikely if there is a leadership election) to become leader and then it's probably still all to play for in an election against Corbyn.

Despite his recent slide in popularity he still has the ability to talk to non-political voters in way that Cameron and May couldn't, although on the flip side, he also has the potential to crash and burn on a massive scale - could go either way really. Wouldn't want to see him as PM or Tory leader in any case.

[mileslunn]

True Boris Johnson has lousy approval ratings, but it seems for the most part both parties have a solid floor of 38% and a ceiling of 45%.  Now if it is 45% Tory to 38% Labour, that is a strong Tory majority but with 45% Labour to 38% Tory that still puts Labour slightly shy of a majority if you have a uniform swing.  The only way either can win a big majority is if one falls below 38% and this can only happen if one of the third parties does better.  If one of the third parties rises then its possible to win a majority like David Cameron in 2015, or Tony Blair in 2005 with under 40%, but not when you have weak third parties.  So Boris winning a general election should be completely dismissed even though he probably would be more of a liability than asset.

[Leftbehind]

Eh not a fan of Johnson but not sure that evidence is that damning. He only needs the Tory members (which is not unlikely if there is a leadership election) to become leader and then it's probably still all to play for in an election against Corbyn.

Seriously? He's more unpopular than May now, even when posted as a hypothetical, and not as a reality (where the benefit of the doubt is soon rescinded as a bad idea). He's been found out, his clown acts only work when he's not tasked with hugely important roles and then found royally ing them up.

True Boris Johnson has lousy approval ratings, but it seems for the most part both parties have a solid floor of 38% and a ceiling of 45%.  Now if it is 45% Tory to 38% Labour, that is a strong Tory majority but with 45% Labour to 38% Tory that still puts Labour slightly shy of a majority if you have a uniform swing.  The only way either can win a big majority is if one falls below 38% and this can only happen if one of the third parties does better.  If one of the third parties rises then its possible to win a majority like David Cameron in 2015, or Tony Blair in 2005 with under 40%, but not when you have weak third parties.  So Boris winning a general election should be completely dismissed even though he probably would be more of a liability than asset.

Nothing can be dismissed out of hand, but you asked "what makes you think Boris Johnson would lose the next election?". His approval ratings are reason enough, but even then, it being a harder task to gain a majority for Labour doesn't suddenly make a Tory victory more likely - just suggests Labour might be left with a minority government.

[parochial boy]

Bear in mind varyingly that

1. Most people don't pay attention outside of election season and probably are unaware or don't care about the details of BoJo's mishaps or May's hillarious fail of a reshuffle

2. May probably can't go before Brexit

3. The next GE probably can't be before Brexit

4. Brexit will be a disaster in any case and there will be a lot of furious Brexit and remainer Tories hanging around (and we already know Brexit Labour supporters were largely happy to stay with Corbyn Labour)

5. The British economy will be weaker, and this will hurt the public's confidence in the Tory's economic management

It seems like the context of the next GE will be hugely beneficial to Labour, regardless of who is in charge of the Conservatives at that point

[ViaActiva]

True Boris Johnson has lousy approval ratings, but it seems for the most part both parties have a solid floor of 38% and a ceiling of 45%.  Now if it is 45% Tory to 38% Labour, that is a strong Tory majority but with 45% Labour to 38% Tory that still puts Labour slightly shy of a majority if you have a uniform swing.  The only way either can win a big majority is if one falls below 38% and this can only happen if one of the third parties does better.  If one of the third parties rises then its possible to win a majority like David Cameron in 2015, or Tony Blair in 2005 with under 40%, but not when you have weak third parties.  So Boris winning a general election should be completely dismissed even though he probably would be more of a liability than asset.

A swing of 0.5% to the Tories would give them a majority of 4, a swing of 1% a majority of 20 (higher than Cameron's victory). Not saying this is the likeliest outcome but certainly plausible that a more competent Tory campaign and continued distrust of Corbyn could deliver this.

Eh not a fan of Johnson but not sure that evidence is that damning. He only needs the Tory members (which is not unlikely if there is a leadership election) to become leader and then it's probably still all to play for in an election against Corbyn.

Seriously? He's more unpopular than May now, even when posted as a hypothetical, and not as a reality (where the benefit of the doubt is soon rescinded as a bad idea). He's been found out, his clown acts only work when he's not tasked with hugely important roles and then found royally ing them up.

Only marginally more unpopular on the evidence shown, and while certainly I think it's a problem for him I don't think it's terminal given Corbyn is not far off from both May and Johnson in unpopularity! -30% is not unprecedented - Cameron came pretty close in 2012 and Ed Miliband reached it often. Not impossible that Johnson could do better than May 2017 given the Opposition.

In any case, I very much doubt that most voters are paying attention or have any idea about the Foreign Secretary's job performance (even though I would agree with you). In this sense it's the same as mid-term polls - to be taken with a great pinch of salt.

[Lumine]

Strictly speaking the conditions are there for a large Labour polling lead. The fact that May and the Conservatives remain competitive and close to 40% after all that's happened speaks volumes to the critical condition of small parties, and particularly to how much resistance Corbyn still generates among many potential voters.

Even if he "wins" the election (which at this time appears increasingly likely), it doesn't him he'll be able to actually win a majority.

[ViaActiva]

Bear in mind varyingly that

1. Most people don't pay attention outside of election season and probably are unaware or don't care about the details of BoJo's mishaps or May's hillarious fail of a reshuffle

2. May probably can't go before Brexit

3. The next GE probably can't be before Brexit

4. Brexit will be a disaster in any case and there will be a lot of furious Brexit and remainer Tories hanging around (and we already know Brexit Labour supporters were largely happy to stay with Corbyn Labour)

5. The British economy will be weaker, and this will hurt the public's confidence in the Tory's economic management

It seems like the context of the next GE will be hugely beneficial to Labour, regardless of who is in charge of the Conservatives at that point

Agree with 1, 2, 3 (though 2 and 3 may be beyond May's control due to events).

Agree in principle with 4 and 5 but I think the effects will be longer-term than you suggest. If this Parliament lasts the course and we have an election in 2021 (2019/2020 may be more likely) then at this time we'll still be in a transition arrangement (unless Brexiteers take over and crash us out) and negotiating a FTA with the EU and other countries. Most experts think that an FTA with the EU can only be completed by the mid-2020s at the earliest, which is after the next election and the impacts may take a few years. Voters may give the Tories credit that they have seen through our exit, at least on paper, at the next election even though the full effects are a while off.

So we may not know the true economic impact of Brexit until 2030, and it's probably likely to be economic stagnation rather than a sudden crash (basically with an elderly population we'll become Japan).

[Leftbehind]

True Boris Johnson has lousy approval ratings, but it seems for the most part both parties have a solid floor of 38% and a ceiling of 45%.  Now if it is 45% Tory to 38% Labour, that is a strong Tory majority but with 45% Labour to 38% Tory that still puts Labour slightly shy of a majority if you have a uniform swing.  The only way either can win a big majority is if one falls below 38% and this can only happen if one of the third parties does better.  If one of the third parties rises then its possible to win a majority like David Cameron in 2015, or Tony Blair in 2005 with under 40%, but not when you have weak third parties.  So Boris winning a general election should be completely dismissed even though he probably would be more of a liability than asset.

A swing of 0.5% to the Tories would give them a majority of 4, a swing of 1% a majority of 20 (higher than Cameron's victory). Not saying this is the likeliest outcome but certainly plausible that a more competent Tory campaign and continued distrust of Corbyn could deliver this.

Not if it's Boris! If there's 'continued distrust of Corbyn', what exactly makes you think the public would have more trust in Boris? If it were a Ruth Davidson or something I could just about think it. But I find a Labour overall majority inherently more plausible than a 1% swing to the Tories under Boris. The man's a dangerous buffoon, and unfortunately the lady in Iran has already paid for that.

Only marginally more unpopular on the evidence shown, and while certainly I think it's a problem for him I don't think it's terminal given Corbyn is not far off from both May and Johnson in unpopularity! -30% is not unprecedented - Cameron came pretty close in 2012 and Ed Miliband reached it often. Not impossible that Johnson could do better than May 2017 given the Opposition.

In any case, I very much doubt that most voters are paying attention or have any idea about the Foreign Secretary's job performance (even though I would agree with you). In this sense it's the same as mid-term polls - to be taken with a great pinch of salt.

To be -30% (20 away from Corbyn) before even becoming leader is pretty noteworthy and I wouldn't call that gap marginal: even after May's disastrous performance as leader, she is still more popular than Boris.  Besides, the public must be paying some attention or his approval ratings wouldn't be collapsing amongst Tory voters?

Strictly speaking the conditions are there for a large Labour polling lead. The fact that May and the Conservatives remain competitive and close to 40% after all that's happened speaks volumes to the critical condition of small parties, and particularly to how much resistance Corbyn still generates among many potential voters.

Even if he "wins" the election (which at this time appears increasingly likely), it doesn't him he'll be able to actually win a majority.

Strictly speaking: are they f**k. With the huge polarisation between Brexit and the return to 2-party politics, large poll leads are not likely (unless, as Miles suggests, a third party gets a lifeline) - any Labour leader would create resistance right now to a proportion of voters who want their Brexit, with a Labour leader who is making noises about putting spanners in the works (because they have to: ~2/3 or their voters are hostile to it).

[IceAgeComing]

The idea of talking about parties having a "solid floor of 38%" when in the last fifty years both parties have only gotten above that twice and there have been a fair few elections where both failed is really very silly.  Making BOLD PREDICTIONS about a situation that has only existed for six months really is the sort of thing that will leave you with egg on your face later on.  I mean just look at the predictions of a "new multi-party British politics" that were made after 2015...

This idea that "LABOUR SHOULD BE LEADING BY 25%!!!" is also very silly if you look at the polling history in the UK.  We're still only six months removed from the election: generally significant anti-government swings tend to happen after that, if they happen at all.  The only exception to this was 1992 but that was a government that won an election in a way that no one expected them to and who had been in government for thirteen years before so a little different to today.  There's also the fact it we got a snap election the polls tend to move as people quickly start paying attention more: in 2017 that led to  Labour's dramatic rise which resulted in them removing the Tory majority.  Add in the very divided situation as well as Brexit and the situation isn't there for either party to really open up a large lead in the polls at the moment.  Considering that we aren't going this year (my prediction is autumn 2019 but I could be wrong) and I think that most people aren't anticipating a General Election and that as much as there has been plenty of talk no one has actually experienced the harms that Brexit will cause and so there's not been a dramatic swing in the polls.  The notable thing will be to see what happens in the Local Elections in May: they are a set that the Tories will be dreading (London Boroughs, the Metropolitan Boroughs and some other rural councils that elect by thirds, the former will get all of the attention and the Tories have been shellacked in London in every election since 2014) but if they do alright in those then its a sign that, in local government at least, the Tories aren't dead in lots of areas where they did awfully in 2017.

I mean we're also assuming here that the government gets to choose when to go: post-Brexit - especially if its a No Deal one or something that leads to a hard Irish border - the DUP may well decide to bring the government down whenever they want: or if something happens to some Tory MPs and we get a few by-elections that they lose then they might even lose their majority with the DUP.  The latter isn't likely in 2019 and would need to be a longer term thing but considering the size of the majority it is a possibility and unlike in 1996/7 the Tories don't really have anyone on the opposition benches other than the DUP to work with; the SNP don't vote on lots of England-only issues unless they have a financial consequence for the Scottish government but they'd vote for a motion of no confidence as would Plaid and the Green: there's Lady Hermon who traditionally has voted with Labour but doesn't like Corbyn but that's one possible vote and then you have the Liberals who have been burned by backing a Tory government already this decade and probably wouldn't do so again.  All in all, its a hard situation and if they are doing terribly in the polls later on I could see the DUP putting the squeeze on to get more ou of them.

[cp]

I mean we're also assuming here that the government gets to choose when to go: post-Brexit - especially if its a No Deal one or something that leads to a hard Irish border - the DUP may well decide to bring the government down whenever they want: or if something happens to some Tory MPs and we get a few by-elections that they lose then they might even lose their majority with the DUP.  The latter isn't likely in 2019 and would need to be a longer term thing but considering the size of the majority it is a possibility and unlike in 1996/7 the Tories don't really have anyone on the opposition benches other than the DUP to work with; the SNP don't vote on lots of England-only issues unless they have a financial consequence for the Scottish government but they'd vote for a motion of no confidence as would Plaid and the Green: there's Lady Hermon who traditionally has voted with Labour but doesn't like Corbyn but that's one possible vote and then you have the Liberals who have been burned by backing a Tory government already this decade and probably wouldn't do so again.  All in all, its a hard situation and if they are doing terribly in the polls later on I could see the DUP putting the squeeze on to get more ou of them.

It would become clear several months before March 2019 if the negotiations were going to result in a hard border in NI. It's worth noting, that's not actually something the DUP object to - their obsession is with staying lockstep with the UK (except when it comes to gay marriage and abortion, but nevermind).

If such an eventuality (a hard border) did transpire it would mean the lunatic fringe Brexiters managed to strongarm May into reneging on the agreement reached in December. This would likely lead to a leadership challenge, as the Europhile/Remain/moderate Tories would never condone it. Whether or not this would then lead to a general election is an open question. The Tories will cling to power long as long as they can, even if they've lost their ability to govern.

There might be by-elections before March 2019, but probably not enough to change the balance of power.

As for Boris, I said *Jo* Johnson would lose the next election, not Boris. And that was because I was drawing a (facetious) comparison between Boris/Jo Johnson and David/Ed Milliband (brothers; one made foreign secretary by a PM who feared his leadership ambitions; the other wins the leadership by a hair then goes on to lose the GE).

In any case, I still think Boris would lose a GE as Tory leader. I don't know if there's any convincing his diehard supporters that he's nowhere near as popular or competent as they think he is. If his naked opportunism, gaffe after gaffe, poor approval ratings  - even among Tories! - and the withering of his everyman image due to Brexit aren't enough to change your mind then no reasonable argument will.

[Blair]

It's not 2014; Boris Johnson isn't the Messiah.

Boris Johnson's political career ended the morning after the referendum when he was booed coming out his House in London. His entire plan was for Leave to narrowly lose, get a plum Cabinet Job and then run against Osborne in 2018.

Johnson's only relative advantage over May is that he was slightly more liberal on certain issues like Immigration, and public sector pay, but by becoming the face of Leave he's made himself toxic with the voters the Tories need (affluent, 30-45 years living in urban areas)

I'd even argue that without Brexit, Boris's rather sketchy record in London (which saw lots of vanity projects, and not a lot of actual progress), his record of making absolutely sh**t stupid comments, and his eerie similarity to a British version of Trump make him pretty questionable.

Besides, he's been a god awful foreign Secretary, who actually put someone put in prison because he didn't do his homework before a select committee.

[EPG]

I think it's much more likely that leaders get BETTER approval among their own supporters than leadership rivals.

Asking Conservatives about Theresa v Boris is like asking whether they prefer Mummy or the wicked stepmother who wants to take Mummy away.

If Boris Johnson were PM and Theresa May his main rival, I should expect those ratings to be reversed.

[Leftbehind]

I think it's much more likely that leaders get BETTER approval among their own supporters than leadership rivals.

Asking Conservatives about Theresa v Boris is like asking whether they prefer Mummy or the wicked stepmother who wants to take Mummy away.

If Boris Johnson were PM and Theresa May his main rival, I should expect those ratings to be reversed.

Boris' approval deficit between himself and May amongst Tory voters has doubled in the space of two months (even when her own support was also declining). His own incompetence has undoubtedly been the cause of it.

[Silent Hunter]

It's not 2014; Boris Johnson isn't the Messiah.

He's a very naughty boy.

And speaking of very naughty boys, UKIP leader Henry Bolton has left his Russian-born wife for a topless model just over half his age... One with some interesting views.

Anyway, there may be a vote of confidence on the matter...

[EPG]

I think it's much more likely that leaders get BETTER approval among their own supporters than leadership rivals.

Asking Conservatives about Theresa v Boris is like asking whether they prefer Mummy or the wicked stepmother who wants to take Mummy away.

If Boris Johnson were PM and Theresa May his main rival, I should expect those ratings to be reversed.

Boris' approval deficit between himself and May amongst Tory voters has doubled in the space of two months (even when her own support was also declining). His own incompetence has undoubtedly been the cause of it.

No doubt, but I remember not too long ago Theresa May was polling over 50 per cent in party vote intention.

Life moves pretty fast.

[Leftbehind]

Seems well suited for UKIP.

I think it's much more likely that leaders get BETTER approval among their own supporters than leadership rivals.

Asking Conservatives about Theresa v Boris is like asking whether they prefer Mummy or the wicked stepmother who wants to take Mummy away.

If Boris Johnson were PM and Theresa May his main rival, I should expect those ratings to be reversed.

Boris' approval deficit between himself and May amongst Tory voters has doubled in the space of two months (even when her own support was also declining). His own incompetence has undoubtedly been the cause of it.

No doubt, but I remember not too long ago Theresa May was polling over 50 per cent in party vote intention.

Life moves pretty fast.

Largely because she was able to portray herself as the safe pair of hands in turbulent times (and that quickly evaporated once voters got to know her). Good luck convincing the public BoJo is that amidst Brexit.

[cp]

Indeed. Boris' appeal, such as it was, seemed to derive from his disruptive potential. He wasn't like the polished, politically correct, identikit politicians (read: Blair and Cameron). He would tell it like it is and challenge the status quo. I suppose there was more of an appetite for that back in 2015. It's safe to say Brexit and Trump have whetted that appetite (and hopefully sated it for a generation).

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

What is it with UKIP and keeping a leader smh.

[EPG]

Seems well suited for UKIP.

I think it's much more likely that leaders get BETTER approval among their own supporters than leadership rivals.

Asking Conservatives about Theresa v Boris is like asking whether they prefer Mummy or the wicked stepmother who wants to take Mummy away.

If Boris Johnson were PM and Theresa May his main rival, I should expect those ratings to be reversed.

Boris' approval deficit between himself and May amongst Tory voters has doubled in the space of two months (even when her own support was also declining). His own incompetence has undoubtedly been the cause of it.

No doubt, but I remember not too long ago Theresa May was polling over 50 per cent in party vote intention.

Life moves pretty fast.

Largely because she was able to portray herself as the safe pair of hands in turbulent times (and that quickly evaporated once voters got to know her). Good luck convincing the public BoJo is that amidst Brexit.

But wasn't the 2017 campaign the most significant event in recent UK psephology? 10-15 point changes in vote intention during an election campaign telling us that opinion polls are mud as forecasting devices in anything but the shortest term imaginable, i.e. a week. So at the time of the next election, none of those numbers will matter.

[Helsinkian]

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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/11/nigel-farage-backs-fresh-brexit-referendum-to-kill-off-issue

[Pericles]

It's probably a mistake to trust the polls much given their track record in previous UK elections.