Montana AG Tim Fox not running for Senate: "This all changed post slam"

[Gass3268]

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[PragmaticPopulist]

I can see GOPers scratching their heads on this one. There aren't many other well-known candidates for them.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I can see GOPers scratching their heads on this one. There aren't many other well-known candidates for them.

Tester is going to be re-elected and they should just accept that.

[heatcharger]

Tremendous! And congrats to Governor Fox in 3 years.

[Pericles]

Tester is not a top GOP target, I'd say Heitkamp, Donnelly, McCaskill and then Manchin are the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents, but most of them will probably win if 2018 goes as it is currently shaping up to go.

[TheSaint250]

It would've been somewhat challenging to defeat Tester anyway. I still consider that seat lean D.

[TheSaint250]

It would've been somewhat challenging to defeat Tester anyway. I still consider that seat lean D.

It is now probably. Fox would've made it a tossup though.

I was thinking that even with Fox, since 2018 won't be a pro-GOP year, Tester was ok. I always thought Zinke would be the only big challenger

[Adam Griffin]

When he says "this all changed post-slam", what he really meant was "this all changed post-election".

The fact that an inexperienced, baggage-ridden and heavily nationalized Democrat came within 6 points of beating Generic Republican for a seat the GOP usually walks away with and with mid-term level turnout means he knows he can't beat someone like Tester.

[Kamala]

Fox just revealed that Gianforte wants to run against Tester, and he's afraid that Greg will slam him into the ground, now that he's proven he can do that. Fox is afraid and backing out in favor of Greg.

[Kamala]

Fox just revealed that Gianforte wants to run against Tester, and he's afraid that Greg will slam him into the ground, now that he's proven he can do that. Fox is afraid and backing out in favor of Greg.

I'm assuming that's a joke cuz there's no way the NRSC would be dumb enough to run Gianforte against Tester

'Tis but a jest.

[Heisenberg]

Fox just revealed that Gianforte wants to run against Tester, and he's afraid that Greg will slam him into the ground, now that he's proven he can do that. Fox is afraid and backing out in favor of Greg.

LOL that must be a joke. Anyway, I think this means Rosendale will be the nominee.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

1. This changes nothing. Fox was overhyped anyway.
2. Lol@the overreactions.
3. Lol@at anyone who believes Fox will easily win a gubernatorial race.
4. Lol@this:

I can see GOPers scratching their heads on this one. There aren't many other well-known candidates for them.

Tester is going to be re-elected and they should just accept that.

Tester's reelection isn't funny, but it's going to happen. And as one of the few pro-coal dems left, he has my enthusiastic endorsement.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

1. This changes nothing. Fox was overhyped anyway.
2. Lol@the overreactions.
3. Lol@at anyone who believes Fox will easily win a gubernatorial race.
4. Lol@this:

I can see GOPers scratching their heads on this one. There aren't many other well-known candidates for them.

Tester is going to be re-elected and they should just accept that.

Tester's reelection isn't funny, but it's going to happen. And as one of the few pro-coal dems left, he has my enthusiastic endorsement.

#gamechanger

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

1. This changes nothing. Fox was overhyped anyway.
2. Lol@the overreactions.
3. Lol@at anyone who believes Fox will easily win a gubernatorial race.
4. Lol@this:

I can see GOPers scratching their heads on this one. There aren't many other well-known candidates for them.

Tester is going to be re-elected and they should just accept that.

Tester's reelection isn't funny, but it's going to happen. And as one of the few pro-coal dems left, he has my enthusiastic endorsement.

#gamechanger

Actually, no, Tester will get reelected regardless of my impact.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Tester's reelection isn't funny, but it's going to happen. And as one of the few pro-coal dems left, he has my enthusiastic endorsement.

Well, I guess this seals the deal, then. You heard it here, folks... why even hold an election now? It's totally clear that Tester will win in 2018 and Governor Fox is a shoo-in in 2020.

Sorry, but this forum likes to overreact to everything. The one thing I do agree with you on is that it's now much more likely that Fox runs for governor in 2020. If the Democrats nominate a decent candidate (I really like Laslovich), I might be tempted to vote against him assuming I even live in the state in 2020. I'd love to see Fox losing a gubernatorial race, especially given how overrated he is on this forum.

2018 will be a D year. Without Fox or Zinke, who do republicans have  left that can realistically beat a popular incumbent in a D year? Name somebody.

[Heisenberg]

Tester's reelection isn't funny, but it's going to happen. And as one of the few pro-coal dems left, he has my enthusiastic endorsement.

Well, I guess this seals the deal, then. You heard it here, folks... why even hold an election now? It's totally clear that Tester will win in 2018 and Governor Fox is a shoo-in in 2020.

Sorry, but this forum likes to overreact to everything. The one thing I do agree with you on is that it's now much more likely that Fox runs for governor in 2020. If the Democrats nominate a decent candidate (I really like Laslovich), I might be tempted to vote against him assuming I even live in the state in 2020. I'd love to see Fox losing a gubernatorial race, especially given how overrated he is on this forum.

2018 will be a D year. Without Fox or Zinke, who do republicans have  left that can realistically beat a popular incumbent in a D year? Name somebody.

They still have one secret weapon left: Matt Rosendale. He is so badass he shot down a government drone in one of his old ads. That just screams so Montana, and sometimes he even cuts his hair like Tester's (flat on top).

[KingSweden]

Tester's reelection isn't funny, but it's going to happen. And as one of the few pro-coal dems left, he has my enthusiastic endorsement.

Well, I guess this seals the deal, then. You heard it here, folks... why even hold an election now? It's totally clear that Tester will win in 2018 and Governor Fox is a shoo-in in 2020.

Sorry, but this forum likes to overreact to everything. The one thing I do agree with you on is that it's now much more likely that Fox runs for governor in 2020. If the Democrats nominate a decent candidate (I really like Laslovich), I might be tempted to vote against him assuming I even live in the state in 2020. I'd love to see Fox losing a gubernatorial race, especially given how overrated he is on this forum.

2018 will be a D year. Without Fox or Zinke, who do republicans have  left that can realistically beat a popular incumbent in a D year? Name somebody.

They still have one secret weapon left: Matt Rosendale. He is so badass he shot down a government drone in one of his old ads. That just screams so Montana, and sometimes he even cuts his hair like Tester's (flat on top).

And like Arsenio Hall!

Anyways: congratulations Governor Fox

[The Other Castro]

Damn, Governor Fox is going to completely gerrymander Montana.

/s

[Rjjr77]

Fox just revealed that Gianforte wants to run against Tester, and he's afraid that Greg will slam him into the ground, now that he's proven he can do that. Fox is afraid and backing out in favor of Greg.

You mean a terrible candidate who physically assaulted a reporter before the election beat a moderate well known celebrity ?

Two can play that silly game

[Kamala]

Fox just revealed that Gianforte wants to run against Tester, and he's afraid that Greg will slam him into the ground, now that he's proven he can do that. Fox is afraid and backing out in favor of Greg.

You mean a terrible candidate who physically assaulted a reporter before the election beat a moderate well known celebrity ?

Two can play that silly game

You need some help finding your sense of humor?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

- While Katie McGinty did much better than expected, I was right about her being a bad candidate - she still lost to Pat Toomey, when Sestak and maybe Fetterman would have won.

- Every senate race will be nationalized. Some a bit less, some a bit more - but every race will be nationalized. You sound like some democrat from 2014 arguing that Mark Begich is safe because of "local issues" - well, guess what, he lost. Not by as much as some other senators, but he still lost. No republican is going to beat Tester because of "Drones!! AAH!!!". If Tester loses to Rosendale, it will be because Trump's approvals have resurged to the high 40s. That's not impossible, but it's hard to see happening. Fox or Zinke have enough star power that they stood a credible chance of winning even in a situation where Trump's approvals are in the low 40s.

- MT-AL special wasn't nationalized because dems didn't think until near the end that the race was competitive, and they were right - in any sane state #assaultgate would have pulled Assaulterforte under a majority, but in Assaultana, he still got a majority. The state was dead-set on electing Assaulterforte no matter what he did. In 2018, dems will pull out every stop to secure Tester, and he won't be running against Assaulterforte.

[SATW]

Tim Fox is so useless. Ugh.

[UncleSam]

Lol@Anyone who thinks any Red state dem is safe in 2018 (including Stabenow). Polarization is being taken to levels not seen even as recently as 2012 (the last time these senators were elected), and the national Democratic brand is as toxic in these states as Trump is in blue states. Barring a Trump impeachment I think any senate race in Montana has to be considered at least lean R, just like any senate race in Nevada has to be considered lean D.

The problem for Democrats is that although polarization will help them pick up a few seats in the house (VA10, FL26, etc), it is not going to result in a majority due to the rampant GOP gerrymanders across most large swing states. Additionally, the shift left has hurt red state Democrats immensely, and I  be very surprised if even a single Romney state Democrat survives to see 2019. Of course Heller is also heading for an epic beat down at the hands of literally any of the potential challengers, but the senate map is stacked against Democrats in such a way that polarization wi undeniably hurt them worse than it will Republicans.

Dems need to focus on state house level stuff first and foremost - they need control over redistricting anywhere they can get it. Governors races also tend to be more localized and so I  much more bullish on dem chances at making significant gains in that department. But I suspect that many Democrats will be heavily disappointed to downright despondent when once again they get swept away in red states where they insist they will make massive inroads while ever shifting left as a party.

Predictions:
Senate: R+7
House: D+16
Governor: D+6