AL-SEN 2017: Moore +16 in primary

[100% pro-life no matter what]

From the Alabama Political Reporter:

Moore: 30%
Strange: 14%
Brooks: 7%

https://www.facebook.com/JudgeRoyMoore/photos/a.209096409288598.1073741828.209038435961062/631000433764858/?type=3&theater

[KingSweden]

I think Moore wins in the first round then loses the runoff

[This account no longer in use.]

Yeah. If Moore somehow wins the runoff, then Dems will send huge amounts of resources to Alabama, but I'm not sure if it'll happen.

[_]

From the Alabama Political Reporter:

Moore: 30%
Strange: 14%
Brooks: 7%

https://www.facebook.com/JudgeRoyMoore/photos/a.209096409288598.1073741828.209038435961062/631000433764858/?type=3&theater

Please god no.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I don't know what's sadder Moore leading this primary or people here think he is damaged enough to lose people Alabama is not voting in a den senator short of Moore murdering a baby an even then the dem has to be a Joe Manchin clone

[smoltchanov]

I don't know what's sadder Moore leading this primary or people here think he is damaged enough to lose people Alabama is not voting in a den senator short of Moore murdering a baby an even then the dem has to be a Joe Manchin clone

More conservative then Manchin, in fact, who would be considered "a dangerous liberal" by  majority in Alabama... Days of Jim Folsom and Lister Hill are long gone...

[Badger]

I think Moore wins in the first round then loses the runoff

This. Anything Can Happen of course comma just not seeing how more makes it out of the runoff.

[Adam Griffin]

Does AL have a jungle primary (and subsequent run-off) or does each party have their own primary? I didn't know AL did run-offs of any sort.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Does AL have a jungle primary (and subsequent run-off) or does each party have their own primary? I didn't know AL did run-offs of any sort.

Primary-->Primary Runoff-->General

[TheSaint250]

From the Alabama Political Reporter:

Moore: 30%
Strange: 14%
Brooks: 7%

https://www.facebook.com/JudgeRoyMoore/photos/a.209096409288598.1073741828.209038435961062/631000433764858/?type=3&theater

Please god no.

[KingSweden]

I don't know what's sadder Moore leading this primary or people here think he is damaged enough to lose people Alabama is not voting in a den senator short of Moore murdering a baby an even then the dem has to be a Joe Manchin clone

More conservative then Manchin, in fact, who would be considered "a dangerous liberal" by  majority in Alabama... Days of Jim Folsom and Lister Hill are long gone...

What's really amazing is that Don Stewart ever won a special election in this state (Little Jim folsom would of course beat him two years later before losing to Denton)

[Young Conservative]

As horrifying as it is that a poll could find this, I doubt it will end up like this.

[MT Treasurer]

I don't know what's sadder Moore leading this primary or people here think he is damaged enough to lose people Alabama is not voting in a den senator short of Moore murdering a baby an even then the dem has to be a Joe Manchin clone

I don't think Strange is necessarily a better candidate than Moore. An upset is possible regardless of who wins the R nomination, which is why I'd rate this Likely R. Special elections can be unpredictable, and polarization isn't as strong in Republican states as it is in Democratic states.

[Badger]

I don't know what's sadder Moore leading this primary or people here think he is damaged enough to lose people Alabama is not voting in a den senator short of Moore murdering a baby an even then the dem has to be a Joe Manchin clone

I don't think Strange is necessarily a better candidate than Moore. An upset is possible regardless of who wins the R nomination, which is why I'd rate this Likely R. Special elections can be unpredictable, and polarization isn't as strong in Republican states as it is in Democratic states.

Wut?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I don't know what's sadder Moore leading this primary or people here think he is damaged enough to lose people Alabama is not voting in a den senator short of Moore murdering a baby an even then the dem has to be a Joe Manchin clone

I don't think Strange is necessarily a better candidate than Moore. An upset is possible regardless of who wins the R nomination, which is why I'd rate this Likely R. Special elections can be unpredictable, and polarization isn't as strong in Republican states as it is in Democratic states.

Wut?

Democratic senators in Trump states - Tester, Heitkamp, Donnelly, Manchin, McCaskill, Stabenow, Peters, Casey, Brown, Baldwin, Nelson

Republican Senators in Clinton States - Heller

[MT Treasurer]

^Yeah, there are also Gardner and Collins, but (a) I expect Heller and Gardner to lose reelection, (b) Collins was always an exception to the rule, plus Maine isn't really that Democratic and (c) Heller's election was a fluke because Shelley Berkley was a godawful candidate. Even Gardner only won by less than 2 in a perfect storm for Republicans. It's much more difficult for a Republican (regardless of how moderate they are) to win a Senate race in a Democratic-leaning state than it is for a Republican to do the same in a reddish state, which is why the Republican advantage in the Senate only exists on paper.

If Jason Kander were a Republican and running against... say... Patty Murray, he'd lose by 15 points despite being a good candidate.

[Maxwell]

Absolutely believable. By how much did Trump win the primary here? Quite a bit?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I have this gut feeling that says Moore will be a perennial loser, always coming close but not close enough to the higher office he so desperately wants. Remember when he ran for President? Thats the closest he'll (hopefully) get.

Sad to see Brooks do so badly. He'd have my vote.

[Maxwell]

Moore has a certain amount of the electorate (~25-30%) who will vote for him come hell or high water. He also has a group the same size who will vote against him no matter what. I can see him winning 1st round and losing big in the runoff.

That's what I imagine happening - Moore beating Strange in the 1st round and then Strange winning like 2 to 1 in the run off.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

^Yeah, there are also Gardner and Collins, but (a) I expect Heller and Gardner to lose reelection, (b) Collins was always an exception to the rule, plus Maine isn't really that Democratic and (c) Heller's election was a fluke because Shelley Berkley was a godawful candidate. Even Gardner only won by less than 2 in a perfect storm for Republicans. It's much more difficult for a Republican (regardless of how moderate they are) to win a Senate race in a Democratic-leaning state than it is for a Republican to do the same in a reddish state, which is why the Republican advantage in the Senate only exists on paper.

If Jason Kander were a Republican and running against... say... Patty Murray, he'd lose by 15 points despite being a good candidate.

What does any of that have to do with Alabama?

[MT Treasurer]

^It has a lot to do with my point that polarization isn't as strong in Republican states as it is in Democratic states (which is what we were talking about here), though Alabama is obviously one of the most polarized and Republican GOP states. Not that hard to figure out.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

^It has a lot to do with my point that polarization isn't as strong in Republican states as it is in Democratic states (which is what we were talking about here), though Alabama is obviously one of the most polarized and Republican GOP states. Not that hard to figure out.

Is there another state that is more polarized and static on partisanship than Alabama?  I can't think of any.  What North Dakota is up to doesn't make a difference here.

[MT Treasurer]

Is there another state that is more polarized and static on partisanship than Alabama?  I can't think of any.  What North Dakota is up to doesn't make a difference here.

Yeah, like I said... AL is one of the most inelastic Republican states, but given the way these special elections are going and the possibility of a godawful Republican being nominated, I think Likely R is still a better rating than Safe. My point is more that Republicans can't take anything for granted, I don't really expect the Democrats to win here in the end.

[GlobeSoc]

Can they poll Maxwell god dammit? she deserves a shot.

who

[PragmaticPopulist]

It would be hilarious if Moore gets the nomination. Even if he ultimately won the general, it would be an embarrassment for the GOP.