Elections and politics in Hong Kong: megathread

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I'm guessing the UGL scandal was stitched up by the CCP to throw 689/CYL under the bus? The timing of the revelation is too obvious.

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I see no benefit to the PRC regime in this sort of move.   Most likely they are trying to deal with a surge of nationalist opinion within the Mainland which I understand empathize with  but there is no justification I can see in doing something like this.

It's to play to an audience of one, and one only.

That one person, who dropped out of high school and then traded on his daddy's name to grift himself up the CCP establishment, is so paranoid that he only knows how to micromanage and chant a few propaganda slogans. As a result, he's made his soon-to-be-former US counterpart look trustworthy and accountable by comparison.

Methinks that one person will drive China into the ground, before he dies, unfortunately.

Hopefully, the West smells the coffee soon and start arresting pro-CCP citizens for treason and their version of "propaganda for a foreign state", especially if they are influent or wealthy. This is only pressure way the West has on China.

All CCP leaders have property, bank accounts, and relatives in western capitalist countries like the US, Australia, and Canada. It would be a shame if something happened to them.

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Just replace "Constitution of the United States" with "PRC" would be fine with me.   Like I said, just "China" instead of "PRC" would be good enough.

The naivety from this post is astounding.

The CCP doesn't tolerate any notion that "China" can exist outside of "PRC" or "CCP-private fiefdom". To allow any idea that an alternative, non-CCP China is possible, would damage its power. The CCP only cares about lining its pockets through its monopoly on power (hence why its leaders have $$tens of billions$$ in offshore accounts), and all else is secondary.

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At this rate, North Korea will have more interesting elections than Hong Kong.

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At least North Korea's elections give you insight into the internal politics of the Kim regime. These LegCo seats will only be filled with no-name rubber-stamp loyalists.

Also, Beijing issued its annual government report during the National People's Congress. In previous years, they always at least mentioned "Hong Kongers will run Hong Kong with a high degree of autonomy". This year, they didn't even bother paying lip service.

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What about calling for people to sarcastically write-in Mao Zedong on the ballot? They dare not prosecute that.

The gerrymandering in that map is so obvious. Even after the LegCo's composition and the candidates have been sheared of any meaningful representation, they still need to dilute the votes of potentially unfriendly voters.

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Yuen Long, Sha Tin, and Wong Tai Sin are divided. Most of the districts have no coherent purpose or identity. Before this year, there were 40 elected seats over 5 constituencies. Now, there are 20 elected seats over 10 constituencies. This adds many layers of protection against "wrong" people getting elected.

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PORI poll has 41% of HK residents "Proud to be a Citizen of China", highest since 2010 and rise from 36% in 2020.  Bodes well for raw vote share for Establishment bloc later this year.

You forgot to mention that many people are behaving in the same way as a North Korean who's asked about their approval of Kim Jong Un, and that the Establishment Bloc will be the next to be purged by Beijing.

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Totally possible that fear bias might drive these results although PORI always does its polling in Cantonese which somewhat mitigates that factor.  Still the same poll has Carrie Lam with still rock bottom ratings so even if there is a fear factor it only applies to PRC and not Carrie Lam.

People are arrested for posting stickers on their apartment doors. You can hardly expect people to be fully honest when random people call them for their opinions.

Anyway, now that the pro-democracy bloc has been neutralized, Beijing has no use for the pro-establishment bloc anymore. There's no need for Beijing to rule Hong Kong through local proxies who have been proven to be incompetent and self-interested. That's why they will be the next to be sidelined. Of course, whoever replaces them can't count on job security either, because the Big Boss' orders are constantly changing. Such are the joys of the Cultural Revolution 2.0.

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The electoral-type event is scheduled for this Sunday, December 19. Turnout is expected to be low, since all pro-democratic candidates have either been jailed, exiled, or cowed into silence.

Carrie Lam says that's no problem, since low turnout means people might actually be content with the state of affairs.

https://hongkongfp.com/2021/12/09/it-does-not-mean-anything-hong-kongs-carrie-lam-says-low-election-turnout-may-mean-govt-is-credible-and-doing-well/

Bus and rail companies have also offered free rides on election day, by complete coincidence, and by no means under political pressure.

https://hongkongfp.com/2021/12/10/free-mtr-tram-and-bus-travel-during-patriots-only-election-as-officials-urge-hongkongers-to-vote/

PORI, one of Hong Kong's main pollsters, had asked whether voters would vote at all, or cast spoiled ballots. The People's Daily then dutifully accused it of manipulating public opinion in collusion with foreign anti-China forces.
https://hongkongfp.com/2021/12/10/hong-kong-pollster-vows-to-press-on-with-surveys-after-chinas-party-mouthpiece-accuses-it-of-influencing-election-turnout/

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The electoral-type event is scheduled for this Sunday, December 19. Turnout is expected to be low, since all pro-democratic candidates have either been jailed, exiled, or cowed into silence.

Carrie Lam says that's no problem, since low turnout means people might actually be content with the state of affairs.

https://hongkongfp.com/2021/12/09/it-does-not-mean-anything-hong-kongs-carrie-lam-says-low-election-turnout-may-mean-govt-is-credible-and-doing-well/

Don't forget, though, according to her No. 2 John Lee, if you express your contentment by not voting you’re actually aiding and abetting the nefarious foreign agents who somehow remain embedded in all areas of Hong Kong life:

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3159321/hong-kong-elections-covert-foreign-agents-city-could

So the government is doing a great job if foreign agents are running amok, got it.

Here's the real-time voter turnout, as compared to the previous two elections. You'll see it's already on track for a record low.

https://www.elections.gov.hk/legco2021/eng/charts/tt_gc_GC.html

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Turnout will most likely end up in the low 30s.  Very similar to the turnout in the 1995 LegCo election.  The 1995 LegCo system that Patten put in place is fairly similar to the one we have now: some geographic seats, very functional seat heavy, and a bunch of seat elections by some committee.  I guess if the geographic seat weight is low in 2021 just as in 1995 the turnout will be similar.

This apologism is so pathetic that even Carrie Lam has abandoned making excuses for the low turnout.