Elections and politics in Hong Kong: megathread

[peterthlee]

Hey guys, to facilitate smooth management of electoral data about Hong Kong elections, all topics related will be covered in this megathread.
Hope this would be more user-friendly.

Background
Latest approval polling for leading political figures in Hong Kong
Approval rating of CE-elect Carrie Lam (I)
Approve: 46% (-1 compared with last time)
Disapprove: 45% (+1)
Net approval: +1
Popularity score: 54 (-2.7)

Approval rating of outgoing CE Leung Chun-ying (I)
Approve: 20% (-5)
Disapprove: 73%
Net approval: -53
Popularity score: 38.1 (-3.6)

Plunging popularity score of CY Leung is probably affected by the resurfacing of his UGL-gate. In the meantime, though Carrie Lam settled on unpopular incumbent Paul Chan as his financial chief, her popularity remains largely stable.

Approval rating of top 3 ministers:
Chief Secretary for administration Matthew Cheung: +17
Secretary of finance Paul Chan: -27
Secretary of Justice Rimsky Yuen: -5

Source: Pollster from the Faculty of Social Science, the University of Hong Kong

Upcoming Elections (with peterthlee's preliminary ratings)
1/ Likely Legislative Council by-elections (not later than March 2018 as of today)
Here we assume that only the Kowloon West and New Territories East constituencies will be contested. The constituencies involved and the ratings will be updated once the judicial reviews' results for the other 4 MPs' qualifications are handed down (case reference number: HCAL 223-226/2016). The elections are therefore assumed to be conducted in FPTP.

Kowloon West: likely pro-establishment pick-up
No energetic candidates from the non-establishments, likely splinter candidates from the localist and self-determinance camp, huge bench from the pro-establishments (DAB Yau Tsim Mong district council president Chris Ip, ex-Prez Chung Kong-mo and Sham Shui Po DC member Vincent Cheng are strong candidates).
Many localist and even those supporting Ex-Court of Appeal VP Woo Kwok-hing in the CE election are prone to defection, pushing the tide of pro-establishments to around 140-150K raw votes. Non-establishment is disorganized and they are heading to a historic humiliation there.

New Territories East: toss-up, tilt pro-establishment
Ex-MP Gary Fan (ND), who narrowly lost re-election in 2016, has been bleeding support to pro-estabishments as he pretends to be very adamant in running, antagonizing hardcore localists. His overconfidence could lead to him being caught sleepwalking if pro-establishments go with a strong candidate like ex-MP Wong Kwok-hing from FTU.

Both districts are non-establishment bastions (Kowloon West: 58-37 and New Territories East: 58-34 in 2016), but heavy pro-establishment trend in Kowloon West and discord between non-establishments could give pro-Est a golden opportunity.

2/ 2019 Local District Council elections:
Solid pro-establishment regardless of Carrie Lam's approval.

3/ 2020 Legislative Council general election
Will be updated with more clues added, probably after the 2018 by-elections.

[jaichind]

Any ETA on those by-elections for seats that those Localization Bloc MPs vacated after being expelled?

[peterthlee]

They are covered in the introductory thread (thread #1).

[peterthlee]

Current political situation in Hong Kong:

(1) tightening grip by Beijing
In light of alarming pro-independence wave in Hong Kong, NPC President Zhang Dejiang vowed to exercise the Central government's full authority on Hong Kong. These include legislation screening, appointment of the CE, interpretation of the Basic Law, amongst others. The control by the central government is being stepped up to counter the spread of self-determination territory-wide.
His keynote speech stirred up a war of word between pro-establishments and non-establishments. Pro-establishments appreciate Zhang's utmost adamancy to safeguard Hong Kong's sovereignty, whilst non-establishments are freting that the Central government will expedite the process of legislation of Article 23 of the Basic Law.

[peterthlee]

(2) internal tug-of-war between the executive and legislative branches


Outgoing CE Leung Chun-ying (I), who will have his mediocre term ending on 1 July, was alleged of manipulating a probe report concerning his possibly indecent transaction with the Australian UGL group involving 50 million HKD. The report was to be briefed by the vice-president of the probe committee commissioned by the Legislative Council, Holden Chow (DAB). Traces of amendments were discovered by the secretariat of the LegCo.

This stoked up a political roar between the CE and opposition lawmakers. Civic Party leader and MP for New Territories East Alvin Yeung demanded Leung's resignation, and they are actively propelling for an impeachment motion, slated for debate on 7 June.

On the other hand, the incumbent CE continuously points his finger to Kenneth Leung (PG), a pan-democratic standing committee member, accusing him of probable conflict of interest.

Holden Chow was heavily grilled by his fellows and stepped aside earlier.

Link to the photo attached

[peterthlee]

In the meantime, CE Leung Chun-ying (I) is scheduled to attend the legislature's grand hearing tomorrow (HKT).

This would be his last presence at the parliament before his departure on 1 July.

He is anticipated to be lambasted on his conspicuous relationship with the UGL conglomerate by the opposition parties. The affairs provoked the war of words between a pro-establishment columnist and the chief lecturer of the HKU Faculty of Law Eric Cheung, who reiterated that Leung shall be held accountable.

[peterthlee]

Outgoing CE Leung Chun-ying (I) was at the legislative body for his final grand hearing session before his term ceases.


He was grilled on his alleged UGL conspiracy by Democratic Party President and MP for Kowloon East Wu Chi-wai, as well as his fellow Lam Cheuk-ting. Lam blasted Leung as a 'human scum', while Leung refuted that Lam was spewing endless drivel and wasting his time slot.

Leung staunchly defended his position in the UGL affair, and describing the opposition MPs are sabotaging the session by focusing solely on this saga. Surprisingly, in the limelight, Kenneth Leung (PG), the Accounting Sector MP who has devoted much of his time investigating Leung's UGL-gate and earned Leung's reprisal to bring him to a libel lawsuit, averted the topic and turned his focus to Hong Kong's taxation basis.

He later commented that there will be many occasions that this topic will be brought to attention, so he spared his time.

Pro-establishment lawmakers were concerned about possible legal controversy surrounding the border checkpoint at West Kowloon HSR Terminus and universal pension scheme for the elderly. Wong Ting-kwong (DAB), MP representing the Import and Export sector, praised Leung of benefiting his sector by introducing plausible policies over his tenure.
***************************************************************************
The new poll released by HKU pollster is now updated in the introductory thread #1.

[peterthlee]

Leung's plummeting popularity is also reflected in the poll by the pro-Beijing Hong Kong Research Association, which is noted for its deviation from the HKU poll (it revealed Carrie Lam was up by 5 whilst HKU pollster was John Tsang up by middle double digits).

However, Leung was scored 2.19 in its final poll for the 4th government, out of a total score of 5. This is in line with the latest HKU poll (a popularity score of 38.1).

[peterthlee]

While CY Leung is embattled in his UGL-gate, his legal successor, Carrie Lam (I), has formed her cabinet.

All three incumbent leading secretaries will remain in their positions.
Despite her determinance to instil fresh recruits in her proposed cabinet, most of the preliminary cabinet members are promoted from the current government.

The shortlist of her team (in chinese version) is provided here.

Some of the finance oligarches' chiefs are reported that they are reluctant to join Lam's government; in such dire circumstances, she could only let Paul Chan to stay on.

[peterthlee]

A similar poll commissioned by the Asia-Pacific Research Department of the Chinese University of Hong Kong also found Leung's popularity alarming:
the popularity leveled at 39.2;
22.3% of the citizens were satisfied with the performance of the government, whilst 39.6% were dismayed.
Link to the photo attached

[peterthlee]

The legislature was debating on the motion of impeachment on CE Leung Chun-ying (I) yesterday.



Link to the photo attached

DAB President Starry Lee, who is a MP representing incumbent territory-wide District Council (II) constituency, blasted the opposition of being superficial and pretending to be a roadblock of Hong Kong's political development. She defended that her fellow Holden Chow only committed 'trivial' careless flaws, but the non-establishments are endeavoring to exaggerate it.

Civic Party present Alvin Yeung reiterated that Leung himself was no longer eligible to remain in office as he had breached political and ethical conventions. He stipulated that there shall be no room for him to mitigate his offence.

Leung, for his part, attended seminar on the Belt and Road Initiative yesterday, without responding to his second impeachment.

The parliament is still convening on the motion. A live broadcast is provided here (by a pro-democracy tabloid media).

[2952-0-0]

I'm guessing the UGL scandal was stitched up by the CCP to throw 689/CYL under the bus? The timing of the revelation is too obvious.

[peterthlee]

I'm guessing the UGL scandal was stitched up by the CCP to throw 689/CYL under the bus? The timing of the revelation is too obvious.

Well, your guess could be right, but the truth is confidential.
Another factor might be related to some pro-Beijing affiliates, but these are all wild guesses.

[jaichind]

4 Localization/Democratic Bloc MPs stripped of their position due to their refusal to take the oath of office (which includes loyalty to PRC).  By-elections now is inevitable.  

They are 姚松炎 (Edward Yiu) who is part of the Architectural, Surveying, Planning and Landscape functional constituency.   羅冠聰(Nathan Law) who a Localization Bloc MP from HK Island Constituency.  梁國雄 ("Longhair" Leung Kwok-hung) who is a Radical Democratic Bloc MP from New Territories East Constituency.  劉小麗 (Lau Siu Lai) who is a Localization Bloc MP from Kowloon  West Constituency.  

2016 election results for

Hong Kong Island
                                        2016                         2012
                               Vote          Seats           Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  48.80%         3          45.09%         4          
  Pro-Beijing             12.20%         1            9.16%          1          
  Center-Right          27.75%         2           35.93%         3
  Moderates               8.85%          0            

Democratic Bloc       31.72%         2           54.80%         3
   Centrists                2.66%
   Moderates             26.95%        2            43.09%        3
   Radicals                   2.11%       0            11.71%         0

Localism Bloc           19.48%        1




New Territories East
                                        2016                         2012
                               Vote          Seats           Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  40.70%         3           42.36%         3          
  Pro-Beijing               5.23%         0             5.26%         0
  Center-Right          29.37%         3           31.81%         3
  Moderates               6.10%          0            5.29%          0

Democratic Bloc       48.35%         5           54.80%         6
   Centrists                 1.39%        0
   Moderates             32.91%        3            39.06%        4
   Radicals                14.05%        2            18.58%         2

Localism Bloc           10.95%        1




Kowloon West
                                        2016                         2012
                               Vote          Seats           Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  42.08%         2           37.28%         2          
  Pro-Beijing               0.34%         0                      
  Center-Right          36.91%         2           37.28%         2
  Moderates               4.83%          0            

Democratic Bloc       29.44%         2           62.71%         3
   Centrists                
   Moderates             26.44%        2            46.09%        2
   Radicals                   3.00%        0           16.62%         1

Localism Bloc           28.49%        2


Seems to indicate that the Democratic Bloc will win in New Territories East and Establishment Bloc will win  in Hong Kong Island and Kowloon West assuming all three Blocs (Establishment, Democratic, Localism) run a candidate each.  

For the Architectural, Surveying, Planning and Landscape functional constituency it has traditionally been with Establishment Bloc and Edward Yiu had unique connections in this space that allowed him to win.  Most likely in a by-election this will revert to Establishment bloc.

So if the Establishment Bloc play their cards right they can gain 3 seats out of this round of by-elections.

[jaichind]

Of course Localism Bloc MP 梁頌恆（Sixtus Leung Chung-hang) elected from New Territories East Constituency and 游蕙禎(Yau Wai-ching) elected from  Kowloon  West Constituency have already been expelled already for the same issue. 

Assuming a 6 decisions are upheld on appeal we can see 6 by-elections. 

1 for HK Island
2 for Kowloon West
2 for New Territories East
1 for Architectural, Surveying, Planning and Landscape functional constituency

The 2 for Kowloon West  and 2 for New Territories East seems easy.  Establishment Bloc will win one each and either Democracy or Localism bloc will win the other.

The 1 for HK Island most likely will go Establishment Bloc.  It seems given the polarized nature of the electorate there will be a swing on HK Island from Democratic Bloc to Localism Bloc which will make it hard for the Democratic Bloc to overtake Establishment Bloc which I assume will stay united.  One way to beat back Establishment Bloc in this by-election is for the Democratic Bloc to not contest but back the Localism Bloc candidate.  The main problem with that is that this would mean that the Democratic Bloc will cede the anti-Establishment Bloc space to the Localism Bloc which could mean putting itself into irrelevance.  So must likely this will be a Establishment Bloc pickup.

For the 1 for Architectural, Surveying, Planning and Landscape functional constituency most likely likely outcome is a Establishment Bloc pickup.

So if these expulsions lead to by-elections we are looking at a 4 MP pickup for the Establishment bloc.  The Localism Bloc, as hostile the PRC is toward them, is the electoral gift that keeps on giving to the PRC regime. 

[jaichind]

Sunday is 4 of 6 by-elections need to fill the seats of various pan-Democratic or pan-Localism bloc due to their refusal to swear loyalty to the PRC as part of their swearing ceremony after the 2016 elections.

To some extent the by-elections is not relevant.  In the wake of the disqualification of the 6 pan-Democratic or pan-Localism  lawmakers, the pan-Establishment bloc  last December took advantage of their opponents’ weakened ranks to tighten the legislature’s rule book to curb filibustering since they had a temporary 2/3 majority.  Now even if the opposition gets above 1/3 by winning enough of the by-elections it will take a majority to change the rules back.

But the results can be a referendum if the pan-Establishment bloc can continue to take advantage of the split between the moderate pan-Democratics and radical pro-localism blocs.

The by-elections are

HK Island where it will be pan-Establishment NPP vs a Pan-Democratic independent vs ex Pan-Localism bloc member vs a minor pro-Beijing radical.   If the NPP candidate can capture the Moderate vote the the the split of the opposition vote means NPP wins.

Kowloon West where it will be pan-Establishment DAB vs Pan-Democratic independent vs minor DAB rebel.  Here it is not clear if the  Pan-Democratic independent has any roots here so the DAB candidate could very well win despite the fact that the opposition is united.

New Territories East where it is a free for all.  It is pan-establishment HKFTU/DAB vs a radical pan-Democratic ND vs ex-pan-Democratic bloc Centrist TS vs radical DAB rebel vs Conservative-Centrist PP running as an Independence.  Here the ND should have the upper hand but it seems various pan-Localism bloc voters view the ND candidate as not radical enough and might not turn out which could throw the election to HKFTU/DAB.

Architectural, Surveying, Planning and Landscape functional constituency.  It is a 1-on-1 battle between two Independents: One pan-Establishment and one pan-Democratic.  Here the pan-Democratic independent is Johannes Zimmerman who is a Dutch Jew and long time opposition politician in HK.  The is the most likely seat the pan-Establishment bloc will take back from the Pan-Democrats.       

[jaichind]

In many ways the Pro-Beijing HK regime made it easier for the pan-Democratic to win this Sunday.  Several radical pro-Localism bloc candidates registered to run but were banned from running due to the view from the election board that they did not accept that HK is part of PRC which is a prerequisite to being a candidate.  Had all these pan-Localism bloc candidates were allowed to run turnout would be higher but the chances of a pan-Establishment bloc sweep would be a lot higher as well. 

[jaichind]

Turnout at 34% as of 7:30PM which is lower than 2016 as expected

 

Turnout for Architectural, Surveying, Planning and Landscape functional constituency at 57.3% which is same as 2016.  If so the Pan-Democrats have chance at keeping this seat.


 

[jaichind]

Prediction.  Pan-Democrats win HK island and Kowloon West.  Pan-Establishments wins New Territories East and the functionary seat.

[jaichind]

20 of the vote counted.  Slight lead for pan-Democrats in all 3 districts and slight lead for pan-establishmentioned for the functionary seat. 

[jaichind]

Around 80% of the voted counted. Pan-Establishment will win the functionary seat.   Pan-Democratics will win HK Island and New Territories East.   Tiny lead for pan-Establishments in Kowloon West.

[jaichind]

With 90% of the vote counted it is

HK Island
Pro-Democratic Bloc Ind                50.9%
Pan-Establishment Bloc NPP           46.9%
Ex-Pan-Localism but now Moderate  1.4%
Pro-Beijing radical                          0.8%

It seems enough Moderates went with the Pan-Democratic Bloc candidate to win



New Territories East
Pan-Democratic Bloc ND                    44.5%
Pan-Establishment Bloc  HKFTU/DAB   37.9%
Center-Right PP independent              15.1%
Ex-Pan-Democratic Bloc now Centrist   1.5%
Anti-Gay Marriage Conservative           0.7%
Pan-Establishment rebel                      0.4%

Pan-Establishment bloc should have won this.   I expected Center-Right tactical voting for the pro-Beijing HKFTU candidate but it seems a lot of those votes went to PP.  It seems the Center-Right vote could not fuse around the pro-Beijing HKFTU candidate and threw the race to the generally united Pan-Democratic Bloc.



Kowloon West
Pan-Establishment Bloc DAB                  49.9%
Pro Pan-Democratic Bloc independent     48.7%
Pan-Establishment Bloc rebel                   1.3%

If the Pan-Establishment Bloc holds on to their lead it would be a historic win since at the district  LegCo level the Pan-Establishment Bloc has never won a 1-on-1 battle against the Pan-Democratic Bloc.  The Pan-Democratic Bloc independent not having much roots is part of the reason.
 


Architectural, Surveying, Planning and Landscape functional constituency
Pro-Pan-Establishment Bloc independent    55.9%
Pro-Pan-Democratic Bloc independent        44.1%

This is mostly reversion to the mean as the Establishment Bloc wins most of the  functional constituency races anyway.  And a lesson for the Pan-Democratic Bloc: Do not nominate a non-Chinese where the voting population is at least 95% Chinese.

[jaichind]

New Territories East  done
Pan-Democratic Bloc ND                    44.6%  (elected)
Pan-Establishment Bloc  HKFTU/DAB   37.1%
Center-Right PP independent              15.7%
Ex-Pan-Democratic Bloc now Centrist   1.5%
Anti-Gay Marriage Conservative           0.7%
Pan-Establishment rebel                      0.4%

Again.  Inability of the various Pan-Establishment voting blocs (Economic Center-Right, Conservative, Pro-Beijing) to fuse around the official HKFTU/DAB candidate failed to take a seat where the Pan-Localism Bloc turnout was low given their apathy toward the Pan-Democratic Bloc ND candidate.  This one was winnable and got away from the Pan-Establishment bloc.


In 2016 and 2012 New Territories East results were

                                        2016                         2012
                               Vote          Seats           Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  40.70%         3           42.36%         3           
  Pro-Beijing               5.23%         0             5.26%         0
  Center-Right          29.37%         3           31.81%         3
  Moderates               6.10%          0            5.29%          0

Democratic Bloc       48.35%         5           54.80%         6
   Centrists                 1.39%        0
   Moderates             32.91%        3            39.06%        4
   Radicals                14.05%        2            18.58%         2

Localism Bloc           10.95%        1

[jaichind]

Architectural, Surveying, Planning and Landscape functional constituency done
Pro-Pan-Establishment Bloc independent    55.5%
Pro-Pan-Democratic Bloc independent        44.5%

Back in 2016 it was Pro-Pan-Democratic Bloc independent 43.4% winning over two Pro-Pan-Establishment Bloc independents.  This time the Pan-Establishment Bloc consolidated around one candidate and won.   

[jaichind]

HK Island done
Pro-Democratic Bloc Ind                50.7%
Pan-Establishment Bloc NPP           47.2%
Ex-Pan-Localism but now Moderate  1.3%
Pro-Beijing radical                          0.8%

Given the lower Pan-Localism turnout for the Pro-Democratic Bloc Ind to win some of the pro-Establishment Bloc Moderate vote from 2016 must have gone over to the Pro-Democratic Bloc Ind.  This one is a solid win for the Pan-Democratic to consolidate the Moderate and Radical anti-Establishment Bloc vote. 

Back in 2016 and 2012 it was
                                        2016                         2012
                               Vote          Seats           Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  48.80%         3          45.09%         4           
  Pro-Beijing             12.20%         1            9.16%          1           
  Center-Right          27.75%         2           35.93%         3
  Moderates               8.85%          0           

Democratic Bloc       31.72%         2           54.80%         3
   Centrists                2.66%
   Moderates             26.95%        2            43.09%        3
   Radicals                   2.11%       0            11.71%         0

Localism Bloc           19.48%        1