Elections and politics in Hong Kong: megathread

[Joseph Cao]

If my math is correct, the pan-democracy bloc has won control of the Sha Tin District Council, which was almost tied between the two blocs in the previous election, as well as flipping Tai Po, Central and Western, and Southern Districts outright. Still fairly early in the night.

EDIT [03:00]: Now Tsuen Wan and Yau Tsim Mong have also flipped to the pan-dems. Wong Tai Sin and Eastern could be the next to flip.

EDIT [03:20]: Wan Chai has flipped.

[Joseph Cao]

Too bad as I rather like him.  Of course he will be back.  He is fairly polarizing so it is not surprise that he will lose in a FPTP system.  He will be back next year in LEGCO election where is will most likely be elected in a multi-member district election.

I believe he still retains his seat in the LegCo, though?

[Joseph Cao]

With the tenth district (Eastern District) flipping, the pro-democracy bloc now holds a majority of district councils.
I could see the final balance being 16–2 with Kwun Tong and Kowloon City remaining Pan–Establishment, but no others.

[Joseph Cao]

I will actually made a reverse argument.  The seat landslide might also project a message "well, at least the CCP did not get involved and rig the election."  While the CCP is too smart to try to rig the election I am convinced the CCP did get involved.  I am pretty certain the CCP have infiltrated the radical fringe of the protesters and played a role in the HKUST siege last week.  I suspect had the elections be held 10 days before today the result would have been even worse for the Pan-Establishment bloc.  The siege most likely helped the Pan-Establishment bloc push up their turnout.

As someone that is a KMT supporter, I know who took us down in the late 1940s and how they did it.  Unless the CCP has gotten rusty and soft over the last couple of decades I am sure they will be up to their old tricks here.

*The Polytechnic University siege.

But your basic point stands and yes, the results would have been even more lopsided without the events of the past two weeks.

[Joseph Cao]

He lost to DAB's chairwoman, right?

Yes – about the only silver lining for the DAB in individual races.

Wikipedia has the vote share being

Pan-Democratic      57.34%
Pan-Establishment  41.82%
Others                     0.44%

They, correctly, in my view, count Christine Fong(方國珊)'s Professional Power(專業動力) as Pan-Establishment when other count them as Centrist.   Professional Power(專業動力) is really a splinter of DAB and have an economically Rightist position so should really count as Pan-Establishment.  Wikipedia also counted a couple of independents that other label as Others as Pan-Democratic which I also agree with.

If you look at the candidates that make up the 0.44% most of them lean Pan-Democratic so we should really call this election 58/42 in favor of Pan-Democratic Bloc which as I mentioned before is really not that bad for the Pan-Establishment if we assume that this election has been turned into a referendum election where the more disparate Pan-Democratic Bloc is able to fuse behind one candidate (mostly.)

The assumption is very reasonable considering all the factors differentiating this election from previous council elections (large turnout, increasingly SAR-wide politicisation of races, etc.)
While not the universally held position that some people are claiming it to be, a 16–point gap is still reasonably significant, although it would be more so if district councils’ jurisdiction extended to federal policy. On the other hand, I fully expect pro-democracy boosters to instead talk about the much more impressive–sounding seat count.

[Joseph Cao]

Yeah, this is not bueno.

One other thing: as mandated by the Basic Law, the legislative council elections are supposed to take place every four years. So this decision is constitutionally dubious on top of being a horrible look for the Hong Kong government, which has requested central authorities in Beijing to do their best in hand-waving away the legal questions.

[Joseph Cao]

Furthermore, I'm not convinced anyone in Hong Kong actually likes Carrie Lam, Cantonese-speaking or otherwise, or sees her as much of an authority compared to Beijing. No reason for her ratings to suddenly change when she's just the same Chief (ha!) Executive as she has always been with an extra dose of irrelevancy on top of that.

[Joseph Cao]

The electoral-type event is scheduled for this Sunday, December 19. Turnout is expected to be low, since all pro-democratic candidates have either been jailed, exiled, or cowed into silence.

Carrie Lam says that's no problem, since low turnout means people might actually be content with the state of affairs.

https://hongkongfp.com/2021/12/09/it-does-not-mean-anything-hong-kongs-carrie-lam-says-low-election-turnout-may-mean-govt-is-credible-and-doing-well/

Don't forget, though, according to her No. 2 John Lee, if you express your contentment by not voting you’re actually aiding and abetting the nefarious foreign agents who somehow remain embedded in all areas of Hong Kong life:

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3159321/hong-kong-elections-covert-foreign-agents-city-could

[Joseph Cao]

Somewhat old news… but Boris Johnson isn't the only senior government official who can attend COVID-rulebreaking birthday parties.

170-odd guests who attended a birthday party for a Hong Kong delegate to China’s top legislature are to be sent to quarantine for 21 days at Penny’s Bay, after a second person tested preliminary positive for the COVID-19 virus.

At least 13 senior government officials and 19 lawmakers attended Monday’s birthday party for Witman Hung, Hong Kong’s delegate to the National People’s Congress. They included police chief Raymond Siu, immigration chief Au Ka-wang, Home Affairs Secretary Caspar Tsui and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, Christopher Hui. The party was held at Spanish restaurant Reserva Ibérica in Wan Chai, local media reported.

Initially, only seven senior officials and lawmakers who were present at the same time as the first identified patient were required to undergo compulsory quarantine. But the discovery of a second patient means that the list of people to be quarantined will now include all guests, according to Centre for Health Protection chief Dr Chuang Shuk-kwan.

One of the attendees – legislator Junius Ho – met Beijing’s top official on Hong Kong affairs Xia Baolong during a Shenzhen meeting with other lawmakers two days after the party, Legislative Council’s president Andrew Leung said on Friday. However, everyone had tested negative before meeting him.

It is mandated by law that any person entering restaurants must check-in using the government’s LeaveHomeSafe contact-tracing app, which records the time they arrived at – or departed from – a venue.

However, Au, the chief of immigration, was not yet able to supply proof that he left the event before the COVID-19 patient arrived at the banquet, Chief Executive Carrie Lam said on Thursday. She did not answer questions as to whether the official used the app as the law requires.

Among the government officials in attendance was Au and former customs and excise commissioner Hermes Tang. In March, both were given a HK$5,000 penalty ticket for breaching COVID-19 rules when attending a 9-person hotpot dinner at a private club to farewell a departing Chinese official. The incident was first revealed in July by now-defunct news outlet Stand News as well as Ming Pao. Lam compared the officials’ penalty to a parking ticket at the time, and said she hoped “the matter could be put to rest”.

Images published by digital media platform Channel C appeared to show Monday’s birthday party host Witman Hung – an election committee member – holding a microphone as well as another election committee member, Ellen Tsang. None of the nine people shown in the photo wore masks.

Around 180 people – including officials and lawmakers – were to be sent into mandatory quarantine at Penny’s Bay on Friday evening after a 37-year-old woman in attendance was confirmed to have COVID-19, as a second woman aged 53 tested preliminary positive.

However most of the guests were released from quarantine at around midnight Saturday, after officials determined that the 53-year-old’s case was a false positive, HK01 reported. Her coronavirus test was conducted by her doctor husband, and was “likely contaminated” by vaccines administered at the clinic he operated, government expert Yuen Kwok-yung said.

Eleven officials will now see out their remaining quarantine period at home, by order of the chief executive, according to a Sunday press release.

The latest guest who tested preliminary positive attended the party together with the first patient, said Chuang Shuk-kwan of the Centre for Health Protection during a press briefing on Sunday. The party’s guest list included 192 people in all, although only 181 were found through contract-tracing.

Around 80 guests had their stays at Penny’s Bay halted. However, 92 people who attended the party after the first patient arrived at 9:30 p.m. will remain at at the centre on Lantau for the full 21 days of quarantine.

The investigation into whether 15 government officials who attended Chinese official Witman Hung’s now infamous birthday party violated COVID-19 rules is “ongoing” and will not be “left unresolved,” Chief Executive Carrie Lam said on Tuesday, after two top officials left Penny’s Bay.

Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui and Director of Immigration Au Ka-wang left the government quarantine facility on Monday after completing 14 days of isolation. They were among several officials and lawmakers sent to Penny’s Bay after a guest at the birthday party was later confirmed to be infected with the coronavirus.

The chief executive said that the pair would not return to their duties next Monday at the earliest, as they still have to undergo another seven days of self-monitoring at home.

[Joseph Cao]

As anticipated, Carrie Lam is stepping down and will make way for her successor following CE "elections" next month. The old family excuse for stepping aside.

New boss, same as the old boss and probably worse:

The coming chief executive election in Hong Kong is likely to be a “one-person show”, an adviser to the city’s incumbent leader has said.

Ip Kwok-him made the remarks a day after Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor announced she would not seek re-election. Her departure leaves Chief Secretary John Lee Ka-chiu, Hong Kong’s No 2 official, as the sole heavyweight tipped to contest next month’s race.